Community based climate risks management in Chad

Project Overview

The Republic of Chad is dominated by the Saharan desert in its north (covering half of its 1,284,634 km2). The Sahelian ecological zone runs through the center of the country, and is characterized by poor soils and scrubland. In the south, the wetter Sudanian savanna zone is dominated by forest and wooded savannah. The country’s unique position within the Middle Africa region aligns it with both the Congo Basin and the Sahel (as a member of both the Central African Forests Commission [COMIFAC] and the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel [CILSS]). Landlocked, the country is home to about 11.5 million people (2010 estimate), only 28 per cent of whom live in urban areas (UNFPA, 2010). 

Chad is projected to experience a moderate increase in temperature of between 0.6 and 1.3oC (under a medium warming scenario) by 2023 and 1 to 2.5oC of warming expected by 2050. It is expected that the number of “hot” days and nights will increase, while there will be a decrease in the number of “cold” days and nights (McSweeney et al., 2008; World Bank, n.d.). With respect to precipitation changes, model simulations for the Sahel remain widely divergent; some models estimate that mean annual precipitation could decrease by up to 28 per cent, while others suggest that it could increase by up to 29 per cent by the 2090s. A significant increase in extreme rainfall events (greater than 50 mm in the maximum five-day precipitation) has also been projected—a change that could increase runoff and flooding conditions (McSweeney et al., 2008; World Bank, n.d.).

In response to these expected climate change impacts, the United Nations Development Programme is working with the Government of Chad to implement the "Community-based climate risks management in Chad" project. Project activities will work to build local and national capacity to respond to climate change. 

Expected Outcomes

Outcome 1. Community-based early warning system for preparedness against climate related disaster risks

Outcome 2. Enhancing risks management capacities

Project Details

Levels of Intervention

District

Source of Funds

GEF-LDCF

Key Implementers

Country Office
Local Governments
National Governments

Funding Amounts

US$5.2 million (proposed GEF LDCF grant)
US$16 million (proposed co-financing)

Project Partners

Government of Chad
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
Global Environment Facility (GEF)

Introduction

The Republic of Chad is dominated by the Saharan desert in its north (covering half of its 1,284,634 km2). The Sahelian ecological zone runs through the center of the country, and is characterized by poor soils and scrubland. In the south, the wetter Sudanian savanna zone is dominated by forest and wooded savannah. The country’s unique position within the Middle Africa region aligns it with both the Congo Basin and the Sahel (as a member of both the Central African Forests Commission [COMIFAC] and the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel [CILSS]). Landlocked, the country is home to about 11.5 million people (2010 estimate), only 28 per cent of whom live in urban areas (UNFPA, 2010). 

Chad is projected to experience a moderate increase in temperature of between 0.6 and 1.3oC (under a medium warming scenario) by 2023 and 1 to 2.5oC of warming expected by 2050. It is expected that the number of “hot” days and nights will increase, while there will be a decrease in the number of “cold” days and nights (McSweeney et al., 2008; World Bank, n.d.). With respect to precipitation changes, model simulations for the Sahel remain widely divergent; some models estimate that mean annual precipitation could decrease by up to 28 per cent, while others suggest that it could increase by up to 29 per cent by the 2090s. A significant increase in extreme rainfall events (greater than 50 mm in the maximum five-day precipitation) has also been projected—a change that could increase runoff and flooding conditions (McSweeney et al., 2008; World Bank, n.d.).

In response to these expected climate change impacts, the United Nations Development Programme is working with the Government of Chad to implement the "Community-based climate risks management in Chad" project. Project activities will work to build local and national capacity to respond to climate change. 

Project Details

The main economic sectors in the country are: industry (responsible for 48.8 per cent of GDP, mostly from petroleum products); services (37.6 per cent of GDP); agriculture (13.6 per cent of GDP, principally cotton and livestock). Although agriculture is not the main economic sector of Chad, more than 80 per cent of the country’s workforce is engaged in this sector (USDS, 2010). Chad is among the poorest countries in the world—ranked 163 out of 169 countries on the UNDP Human Development Index (UNDP 2010). GDP per capita in 2008 was US$770 per year (UNDP, 2010), and only 3 per cent of the population has access to electricity. This low level of electrification places huge pressure on forest resources as wood and charcoal remain the principle sources of energy. Exploitation of these resources is contributing to desertification (OneWorld, 2010).

The main non-climate environmental pressures facing Chad include population growth, deforestation, overgrazing, poaching, erosion, waste pollution (litter), soil pollution, brushfires and ground and surface water pollution. Unsustainable levels of water extraction and population pressures have contributed to Lake Chad’s loss of approximately 90 percent of its surface area in the past 40 years. 

The climate of the northern, Saharan desert region of Chad today is very dry throughout the year. Its central plain is hot and dry, with an intense rainy season mid-June to mid-September. In the southern Sudanian savanna lowlands, the climate is warm and more humid, with an intense rainy season from late May to early October. Temperatures in the country range in the winter from 11 to 20oC, and in the summer from 39 to 45oC. Mean annual temperatures in Chad have increased by 0.7oC since 1960 (McSweeney et al., 2008).

Based on the projected changes to the climate, the following key vulnerabilities were identified in Chad’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) released in 2010 (CMEWF, 2010):

  • Agriculture: with 80 per cent of its workforce dependent on agriculture and husbandry, the country is highly vulnerable to climate shifts. It therefore not a surprise that the potential for climate change to bring about a loss of biomass, disappearance of certain crop species, lower yields and increased food deficits is of concern to Chad. Potential outcomes of climate change include reduced agricultural productivity in the south, failed harvests in the Sahelian belt, livestock deaths due to insufficient water resources and reduced fish populations. The length of the growing period could be reduced by more than 20 per cent by 2050, and a near-elimination of rainfed mixed crop/livestock systems could occur within this same timeframe. Of particular concern is the potential for the area suitable for cotton cultivation to be reduced due to economic and climatic reasons. So too is the possible impact of climate change on livestock and pastoralism; Chad projects that climate change could led to abandonment of traditional pastoral zones, modified migration patterns, livestock deaths, loss of genetic diversity, fodder deficits, pressure on protected areas and lower livestock yields.
  • Fisheries:  concerns include an increase in the number of subsistence fishers who have abandoned agriculture and livestock for fishing, migration towards Lake Chad and lower fish stocks.
  • Forest resources: climate change could result in lower vegetation cover, degraded soils, deterioration in the ecosystem services provided by the forests, stronger winds and less rainfall.
  • Freshwater resources: stronger flooding, increased demands on water resources, excessive exploitation, increased evaporation rates and significantly increased extraction (with population growth) are cited as sources of vulnerability.
  • Population: increased pressures for the best land, internal and external migration, rural exodus, and greater pressure on urban structures and services.
  • Transport: degraded road networks and increased transportation costs.
  • Industry: increased difficulty in supplying products and inputs.
  • Human health and nutrition: Chad currently has weak access to basic health services among most of the population, leading in part to low life expectancy  and high mortality rates (infant, children, maternal), and low capacity to address the threat of disease (including respiratory, malaria, diarrhea, cardio-vascular disease, cholera, meningitis, skin and eye diseases). Climate change will place an additional burden on an already vulnerable system.
Level of Intervention: 
Implementing Agencies & Partnering Organizations: 
Government of Chad
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
Global Environment Facility (GEF)
Project Status: 
UNDP Pipeline
Location: 
Rural
Funding Source: 
Financing Amount: 
US$5.2 million (proposed GEF LDCF grant)
Co-Financing Total: 
US$16 million (proposed co-financing)

Key Results and Outputs

Expected Outcomes:

1. Community-based early warning system for preparedness against climate related disaster risks
2. Enhancing risks management capacities

Expected Outputs:

1.1 Producing and disseminating relevant and timely climate information to enhance preparedness of national and local stakeholders and threatened communities to act appropriately and effectively in a timely manner in response to climate-related disaster risks. This includes: (i) the establishment of a decentralized, reliable and functioning organizational system for managing climate risk and disasters, and for coordinating response; (ii) the support to the Direction of Water Resources and Meteorology (DREM) to generate bottom-up reliable weather forecasts to disseminate to target population; (iii) the establishment of a communication and dissemination system to reach all end users; and (iii) the training of staff from DREM and other relevant personnel to effectively run the CB-Early Warning system.
2.1 Promote financial risk transfer mechanisms (e.g. combination of microfinance and micro-assurance) to help rural households minimize losses and provide safety nets against climate-related shocks. This includes: (i) structural analysis of market and institutions to determine demand for micro-insurance and related risk-transfer mechanisms; (ii) the selection of schemes and instruments; (iii) the development of clients’ education and capacities; (iii) the testing and evaluating of financial risks mechanisms; and (iv) the development of cross-community peer-review, learning and sharing mechanisms to support replication in other vulnerable communities.

Contacts

UNDP
Mame Diop
Regional Technical Advisor