Though only 14% of Mali’s land is considered to be cultivable, the country’s economy is nevertheless strongly dependent on agriculture. In fact, Mali’s economy is largely dominated by the primary sector, which employs 83.4% of the working population. The secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy are still not well developed. They employ 4.1% and 12.5% of the active population, respectively. The agricultural sector in Mali is very sensitive to climate variations including droughts and desertification, both of which have been occurring for several decades. Increasing demographic pressure has led to the conversion of the marginal or forested land into agricultural land and has consequently caused a shortening of the fallow periods and a general degradation of the soil’s fertility.

According to the World Bank, despite annual variability due to repeated shocks, Mali’s economic growth has been generally favorable in recent years, averaging 5.1% per year for the 2003-07 period. Mali’s economy did not perform as well in 2007 due to unfavorable weather conditions and technical difficulties that affected gold production. Mali’s macroeconomic stability has been maintained in 2008 despite the world economic crisis but in spite of these recent trends, Mali remains one of the world's poorest countries and ranks 168 out of 179 countries, according to the 2008 UNDP Human Development Index.

With 83.4% of the population working in the primary sector, availability of and access to natural resources are a first priority for the Malian people, both factors being particularly vulnerable to climate change. As Mali’s agricultural sector is highly dependent on climatic factors, it is generally agreed upon that climate change will produce great impacts in this sector.

Scientific assessments carried out in the context of the Initial National Communication (INC) have shown that climate change will most probably lead to significant losses in crop production. Generally speaking, the area suitable for agriculture, the length of the growing season and potential yield, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. Climate change could also have the potential to impact livestock by affecting factors such as animal health and the availability of fodder. The impact of these could differ depending on the type of species. Some species such as goats and sheep are more heat tolerant than cattle and thus could potentially withstand higher temperatures with more success. However, large farms are more dependent on species such as cattle, which are not heat tolerant.

Climate change will alter the quantity and quality of available natural pastures and will undoubtedly lead to new forms of transhumance corridors in the region, and perhaps to new forms of emerging animal diseases. It is also likely that breeders will have to deal with growing agricultural pressures and greater environmental constraints in the years to come. Another possible impact of climate change on the agricultural and food security sectors is the potential conflicts occurring between farmers and pastoralists as both land and water become scarce. With increasing population, transhumance can become unsustainable, and it will become more important for livestock breeders, investors and governments to give more attention to animal feed processing.

The above mentioned impacts on the agricultural sector will, in turn, have direct impacts on food security in Mali. To ensure food security in the context of expected climate change will be difficult given the low level of capacity of the Malian decision makers at all levels and of the food producers to implement adaptation measures. Capacities of decision makers and of food producers need to be strengthened in order to reduce the potential adverse impacts of climate change and its potential repercussion on national food security.  Moreover, measures including: improved crop varieties to deal with droughts; livelihood and production diversification; improved use of meteorological information and alert systems; and the development of new crop systems to name but a few, will have to be piloted and disseminated in the most vulnerable areas of the country.

Source: UNDP Mali Project Document (March 25, 2010)