Taxonomy Term List
Enhanced climate resilience in the Trois-Rivières region of Haiti through integrated flood management
- Implement agroforestry systems and rehabilitate ‘water towers’ through reforestation of degraded landscapes at priority intervention sites;
- Enhance technical and institutional capacity for productive climate-resilient land management at the national and local levels; and to
- Establish the required governance framework for integrated water resources management (IWRM) to support the climate-resilient land management systems and facilitate sustainable use and management of water resources over the long term.
Monitoring and evaluation at the project level will be carried out in accordance with UNDP requirements contained in the UNDP Operations and Programs Policies and Procedures. and in the UNDP Evaluation Policy . Additional specific monitoring and evaluation requirements of the Adaptation Fund will also be implemented in accordance with its Monitoring and Evaluation Policy and other relevant policies. In addition, the project will engage in other monitoring and evaluation activities deemed necessary to support adaptive management of the project.
The project results indicated in the project results framework of the Project Document will be monitored annually and periodically evaluated during the execution of the project to ensure that the project achieves those results.
Supported by Component 3, the monitoring plan will facilitate learning and ensure that knowledge is widely shared and disseminated to support scaling up and replication of project results.
*The UNDP country office will retain all monitoring and evaluation records for this project – including annual Project Implementation Reports (PPR), the project’s Mid-term Review, and Final Evaluation – for up to seven years after the project's economic closure to support ex post evaluations conducted by the UNDP Independent Evaluation Office and the Office of Independent Evaluation of the Adaptation Fund.
'Launch of project "AdaptarC"', November 2018
Rwanda is among the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change in the world. Higher incidents of irregular rainy seasons, droughts, landslides and floods have exacerbated the impacts of historically degraded ecosystems to significantly increase vulnerability to climate risks for most rural households. COVID-19 has arisen as a challenge that amplifies the vulnerability of the country, which also poses a risk to efforts to addressing climate change impacts. These changes will affect agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, energy systems and human health, causing an estimated annual economic cost of about 1% of GDP by 2030. Left unchecked, these impacts will particularly erode the benefits of the rural settlement programme (Imidugudu), adopted by government to catalyse urbanization and economic development in the rural areas. Such loses can be avoided by integrating climate risks and adaptation measures during the planning, design and implementation of the programme, to avoid maladaptation and ‘lock-in’. Uptake of these measures are hampered by four barriers: i) Technical institutions and communities have limited technical capacity to generate current and diversified knowledge and climate information to integrate climate risks into the planning, design and implementation of the Imidugudu program. ii) The resource poor beneficiaries of the rural settlement programme lack the means to invest in available climate smart technologies and solutions to integrate climate risk into the Imidugudu and diversify and sustain livelihoods in the face of climate change; iii) the country’s policy space inadequately caters for the integration of climate risks into the Imidugudu programmes, exacerbated by weak capacity for cross sectoral coordination at District level; iv) Beneficiaries of the rural settlement programme and their supporting technical institutions have inadequate knowledge management and M&E.
The "Ecosystems/Landscape approach to climate proof the Rural Settlement Program of Rwanda" project puts Rwanda’s Rural Settlement Programme (Imidugudu) on a climate-resilient pathway to secure the programme’s development gains in the face of uncertainties emanating from climate change, and contributes to the country’s recovery from the impacts of COVID-19. This project will demonstrate how a climate-resilient pathway can be achieved at the national level by implementing four outcomes that collectively tackle exposure and sensitivity to climate risks at the landscape. The project will provide technical skills, more accurate and relevant short to long-term climate information, tools, plans, methods and institutional and policy conditions to create and sustain climate resilient livelihoods for select communities, benefiting a total of 2,211,600 people (50% women). It will be implemented by the Rwanda Environment Management Authority in partnerships with the Rwanda Housing Authority, Meteo Rwanda and the Local District Councils (Kirehe and Gakenke).
Outcome 1: Institutional and community capacities for planning for landscape approach enhanced to climate-proof Imidugudu.
This outcome will support climate informed planning as the basis for integrating climate risks into the rural settlement programmes and the associated livelihoods. It will provide communities in the four project areas, their supporting technical institutions and the private sector (builders, suppliers of building materials, contractors within the Imidugudu programme) with skills, awareness and decision-making tools to advance understanding of how vulnerability of livelihoods, local economies and the Imidugudu program are intertwined with the state of the natural systems. The stakeholders will use the information and knowledge to design alternative “climate proofed” Imidugudu plans; develop ecosystems-based adaptation plans as the basis for nature based solutions to flood and erosion control, including river bank and land stabilization in catchment areas; and design climate advisory services as decision-support tool to manage negative impacts of risks to livelihoods. The outcome will therefore lay the basis for the implementation of the other three outcomes (2 to 4), which will utilize the skills and tools throughout the project, thus contributing to, and integrating with all other outcomes. It will also lay the foundation for scaling up of the climate-proofing models throughout the country (by training staff and the relevant private sector players at the national level). Outcome 1 is delivered through five outputs, described below.
Output 1.1: Training programmes and their sustainability mechanisms designed and delivered to provide specialized technical skills and awareness on landscape approaches to climate risk management for technical staff of all relevant Departments and community groups: Enhancing capacities for planning, coordination and implementation in a sustained process at the local level is critical to guarantee effective climate adaptation. Under this output, the project will provide gender and COVID-19 responsive training to government technical staff, communities and the relevant private sector (serving the building sector) in climate risk management within the EbA and climate proofing Imidugudu contexts for implementation, further scaling up and sustainability. To ensure the sustainability of the training and skills development, the programme will be embedded into the Twigire Muhinzi extension services described under Box 3. The following themes will be covered, with each module integrating relevant gender aspects and any new measures necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the response measures:
Downscaling climate information for local level planning – National and district level training to support outputs 1.3, 1.4 and 2.3
Developing ecosystems-based adaptation plans – Community level training to support output 1.4, 2.1 and 2.2.
Climate-risk assessments methods – district and community level training to support outputs 1.3, 1.4 and 1.5.
Climate proofing Imidugudu models – definition of concept and requirements for its roll out – national level training to support output 1.1, 2.3 and outcomes 3 and 4.
Participatory Integrated Climate Smart Agriculture (PICSA) as a tool for climate information and decision-making tools to support planning of Imidugudu and community-based adaptation measures applied in four communities – local level training to support output 1.5 and implementation of outcomes 2 and 4.
Climate smart technologies for rehabilitating degraded/ unproductive land via agro-ecological interventions to reverse the effects of unsustainable agricultural practices – local level training to support output 2.1.
Climate smart technologies to protect and rehabilitate ecologically sensitive segments of the landscape such as hills, river banks and lake shores, wetlands, watersheds, etc. – local level training to support output 2.2.
Practical measures to green the rural settlements in line with an updated Greening and Climate Proofing Toolkit – district and local level training to support outputs 2.3.
Diversifying livestock management systems – district and local level training to support output 2.1.
Financial literacy - existing value chains and their requirements, existing financial institutions and their loan/subsidy packages and tips on how to practically join/engage with them – local level training to support implementation of output 2.5.
Radical and progressive terracing techniques, other soil and water conservation techniques, agroforestry, plant husbandry and watershed services – district and local level training to support outputs 2.1 and 2.2.
Gender mainstreaming in development programmes – importance, methods and benefits – local level training to support the whole project.
Policies and local level implications on livelihood systems, why it is important that everyone pays attention to, and contributes to policy reforms e.g. awareness raising on the on-going land reforms - the new restructuring of land use planning and implementation from national to local levels, revised land policy and land law (2019), which have impacts on the implementation of the Imidugudu programme. Local level training to support the all the outputs.
Training on ecosystems based adaptation will be conducted in very close coordination with two on-going projects - Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in North West Rwanda through Community-based Adaptation and Building the capacity of Rwanda’s government to advance the National Adaptation Planning process. It will utilize training materials developed under these two projects as well as under the LDCF 2 - Building resilience of communities living in degraded forests, savannahs and wetlands of Rwanda through an ecosystem management approach. Training on the reforms in land use will be conducted in close collaboration with the Rwanda Land Management and Use Authority (RLMUA).
Training will take the form of training the trainer (ToT) and will be channelled through the Twigire Muhinzi system. For the technical institutions, training will target key staff in the local authority at District, Sector and Cell levels including Agronomist Officers, Environment Officers and interns, Cooperative Officers, Infrastructure Officers, Land Officers, Forestry Officers and RAB CIP Officers, crop intensification programme contractors (contracted service providers who organise seed and fertiliser distribution and provide extension advice). At the sector level, the training will target the Agronomist Officer who cover many of the above functions dealing with aspects of rural infrastructure, lands adjudication/title registration, forestry and environmental management (responding to the respective four designated officers at District level) in addition to the ‘primary’ focus on agriculture, livestock and horticulture. Livestock Veterinary Assistants and Forestry Officers deployed at Sector level will also be included in this training. At the Cell level, the training will target the Social Development Officers (better known as the Integrated Development Programme Officers or ‘IDPs’) as this is the main salaried post concerned with agricultural and development issues. Activities will include: a) Identify all the relevant groups that need to be trained (including architects, engineers, planners, community groups, etc.) and refine the capacity assessment undertaken during the project formulation (Annex 12) with emphasis on training needs assessment and identify further training needs; (b) Review existing training manuals and determine suitability for training under this project and/or modify as necessary, develop training modules with a clear and costed work plan for implementation; (c) Conduct training in a gender responsive and participatory process; (d) Reflect on the development and delivery of the training programmes and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2).
Output 1.2: Climate-risk assessments methods provided to support adaptation planning as an on-going practice with a focus on the local level in the project areas: The main climate related disasters affecting the project area are floods, landslides and mudslides, droughts and famine. The country has recently established a clear, well equipped and coordinated institutional framework for disaster management and response (Box 4). The programme has established climate risk assessment methods and set up systems for information collection and dissemination linking national to district and sector levels. Under this output, the project will raise the awareness of the Imidugudu beneficiaries and local populations at the project sites to the existence of tools and systems assessing and addressing floods, landslides and mudslides, droughts and famine. It will train, in a gender and COVID-19 responsive manner, relevant groups on the use of the existing networks and information so they can utilize the same more effectively. Activities under this output include: a) Disseminate information to local communities on the climate risk assessment tools and methods developed by the Joint Program on Support to Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee; (b) Train relevant groups on the access and use of the existing information and networks (in conjunction with output 1.1); c) Reflect on the process and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2).
Output 1.3: Climate-proofed Imidugudu models developed in a science-led, gender and COVID responsive highly participatory process and piloted in four landscapes: This model will be developed with participation of the entire country (national level); however, its implementation will be tested at the local level in the project sites as described under output 2.3. To ensure replication/upscaling, model development will be led by the Rwanda Housing Authority (RHA) with participation from all relevant sectors, including the private sector (builders, contractors, suppliers of building materials within the Imudugudu programme). With the support of a Project Technical Committee, RHA will lead a national discourse on climate proofing the Imidugudu aimed at creating understanding and buy-in of: a) definition of the concept; b) its importance in the efficiency and sustainability of resources invested in the Imidugudu programme; c) the requirements (costs, policies, rules, regulations and institutional arrangements) for its effective and widespread adoption including the trade-offs at different levels. This will lead to a stakeholder-driven and expert-informed model and guide for climate proofing Imidugudu settlements in Rwanda, addressing the entire process from planning the rural settlement programme to its operation. This model and guide will be designed with options that are applicable to different settings of Rwanda. To ensure that the development of the climate proofing model is informed by the best available technical expertise and science, a Project Technical Committee will be formed to lead the consultation, comprising of nominated/delegated persons from relevant institutions (Ministries and Agencies), civil society, academia and community organizations, who are mandated to represent the interests of their respective stakeholder groupings (with attention given to adequate representation by women, young people and other vulnerable groups).
To ensure systematized consultation and input by all relevant groups, this committee will map stakeholders and develop a strategy for consultation and capacity support for stakeholders who might require it to participate fully. It will adopt innovative measures to engage the youth, for example by organizing competitions and debates between various institutions (schools, universities). Input from communities will be secured during the process of formulating adaptation plans (output 1.4). Inputs from the scientific community will be secured via technical conferences while inputs from policy makers will be secured through several iterative workshops and policy dialogues. Activities under the output will include: a) Establish the Climate Proofing Technical Committee with clear Terms of Reference for its operations; (b) Undertake stakeholder mapping and identify relevant stakeholders to be consulted; (c) Design a stakeholder consultation strategy, identifying any specific capacity support required for effective participation of specialized groups such as Meteo-Rwanda, technical experts (climate scientists, infrastructure development experts, rural development experts), academia and students; (d) Undertake the consultative process in line with the stakeholder consultation strategy (at all levels); (e) Collate the inputs from the stakeholder consultations and develop the climate proofing models; assess the feasibility of the various models via cost benefit analysis including considerations of social, economic and environmental feasibility using multi-criteria approaches. Select one or several models and develop guidelines for their application; (f) Develop training materials that are deemed necessary to support the uptake of the model (to be incorporated in the training conducted under output 1.4 and for uptake by other relevant government programmes); (g) Develop and disseminate awareness raising material to popularize the model such as policy briefs (with recommendations for policy and regulatory changes that might be required – in conjunction with Outcome 3); h) Reflect on the process of model development and piloting and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2).
Output 1.4: Four Ecosystems-based Adaptation Plans developed in a science-led, gender and COVID-19 responsive and highly participatory process: As explained in the strategy section, households are highly dependent on low technology, low input agriculture and other natural resources for their economic development and livelihoods. Mainstreaming climate risks into the Imidugudu programme requires improving the natural resources and healthy ecosystems. Healthy functional ecosystems are therefore the bedrock of climate resilience of the communities in the rural areas, as they buffer away climate hazards and widen the livelihood options in the face of climate change. Adaptation plans will therefore be developed to provide a systematic approach to address the vulnerabilities at the landscape level and promote healthy natural resources and ecosystems. This will underpin good adaptation policy, planning and delivery by the communities that are directly dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods. Informed by various technical assessments, analyses, data and maps, and expert knowledge to be provided by the Project Technical Committee, the EbA planning process will bring together and enable an open dialogue to take place between the population exposed to climate change, decision makers, development planners and climate change experts to: define the geographic scope of the plan; describe the environmental, social, economic and institution characteristics of the mini watersheds; articulate a vision and strategic management objectives; identify and prioritize strategies and methods for addressing the issues; identify, prioritize and depict spatially suitable areas for cost-effective land rehabilitation, soil and water conservation, protection of wetlands, sustainable agriculture and other land uses; present a detailed implementation plan, including: (i) institutional arrangements for governance, collaboration and monitoring; (ii) a detailed monitoring and evaluation framework; (iii) a financing strategy and sustainability plan.
The project will update (ground-truthing) the vulnerability assessment undertaken during the project formulation and use it as one input into the ecosystems-based adaptation (EbA) planning. EbA will be implemented using a community-based approach to adaptation (CbA) and will incorporate the concepts of Forest Landscape Restoration principles, to identify forested areas for protection and degraded forests for restoration. Adaptation planning will utilize suitable tools such as CRISTAL (https://www.iisd.org/cristaltool/), COBRA or any of the many other tools summarized here https://www.iied.org/tools-for-ecosystem-based-adaptation-new-navigator and here https://www.iied.org/sites/default/files/eba_tools_navigator_tutorial_sept_2019_en.pdf; file:///D:/2020%20Bids%20and%20carry%20over/Rwanda%20LDCF%203/Literature/Community%20Based%20Adaptation%20Practioner's_Guide.pdf.
To ensure effective uptake, the plans will be developed in a gender responsive and participatory approach, to engage a wide range of stakeholders in discussions about climate change in general and climate proofing the Imidugudu in particular. This is in line with the Land Use Planning Guidelines (2017). Particular consideration will be given to ensure meaningful participation of women, youth and other vulnerable or potentially marginalized groups. Activities under this output include: a) Mobilize communities and conduct training to ensure their effective participation in the design of the adaptation plans (in conjunction with output 1.4); (b) Review available EbA planning tools and select the most appropriate for application under the Rwanda pilot areas’ conditions; (c) Conduct planning meetings - facilitate a discussion on the importance of the landscape for each of the stakeholders and sectors and how the actions of one stakeholder group or sector can influence the vulnerability and adaptation prospects of others, either positively or negatively; (d) Review and stock taking of socio-ecological information and information on the institutional and regulatory context; (e) Analyse climate change scenarios and assess current and future vulnerabilities (includes updating/ground trothing the vulnerability assessment report); (f) Identify, select and appraise adaptation options – including trade-offs; (g) Develop a clear, long-term implementation strategy, a financing and sustainability strategy; (h) Develop an M&E system to support adaptive management, learning and upscaling; (i) Develop and disseminate guidelines to integrate the EbA plan into day to day activities of the local communities and the existing development programmes, policies, frameworks and planning mechanisms at the local level; (j) Design a sustainability strategy to ensure continued implementation of the EbA plans and start its operationalization before the end of the proposed project; k) Reflect on the EbA planning process and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2).
Output 1.5: Meteo-Rwanda capacitated to provide high quality climate information to support uptake of gender and COVID-19 responsive adaptation measures in the four project sites and nationally: This output will increase the capacity of Meteo Rwanda to generate required climate information to inform decision-making at central and project levels. Traditional methods of producing weather/climate forecasts using synoptic chart analysis are approaching a limit above which they cannot be improved further for greater benefit to users, who demand more accurate forecasts of the local weather/climate events. Enhancing climate related research, modelling and prediction of weather and climate through Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate modelling is the only way to ensure decisions are informed by non-proxy data in mitigating climate risks. Numerical Weather Prediction products will inform not only policy makers at central level but most importantly at community level during their day-to-day activities, while climate projection information will guide policy and decision makers and interveners in their long-term plans, hence minimising costs and risk in the long-term.
To support the generation of numerical weather prediction and climate modelling products, the project will set up a centre at Meteo Rwanda, equipped with high capacity computers (2 mini cluster computers) and 4 desktops with super capacity to run mathematical and climate models and other relevant accessories. This centre will provide climate risk analysis and conduct climate sensitivity analyses. This information will be used in the development of the cost effective climate proofing models, defining climate proof settlements infrastructure, climate smart agriculture and resilience and in the assessment of long-term climate risk. Meteo Rwanda will be supported to actively contribute to downscaled weather and climate information which will be disseminated through regular channels nation-wide with a web portal created for online visualisation. The dissemination of the information will be accompanied by an awareness raising strategy to educate the public about the availability of the higher quality, more relevant interpreted climate information and the existence of the portal for the use/application of weather and climate information for day to day decision-making. This communication will be channelled through Communications companies (Television stations, radio stations, cell phone companies (Artec, Liquid Telecom and MTN Rwandacell), and newspapers.
Furthermore, Meteo Rwanda will partner with the Rwanda Agricultural Board and Twigire Muhinzi to further disseminate advisory services at the local level via the Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA). PICSA will be used to reach out and empower farmers to interpret location specific weather and climate information in the project sites giving them options to cope with prevailing weather patterns amongst other factors so as to consider their implications on crop and livestock production. Lessons will be drawn from the four districts (Burera, Ngororero, Nyanza and Kayonza) who have benefitted from the Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture (RCSA) project. Activities under the output include: i) set up and equip the numerical weather prediction and climate modelling centre; ii) conduct climate risk and sensitivity analyses and provide input into the development of the cost effective climate proofing model/defining and PICSA advisory services; iii) develop and disseminate awareness raising strategy on increased quantity, quality, relevance and access of climate data for decision-making; iv) partner with RAB and Twigire Muhinzi of Kirehe and Gakenke and roll out PICSA advisory services; v) Reflect on the process and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2).
Outcome 2: Gender and COVID -19 responsive adaptation measures implemented in targeted landscapes following the landscape-approach
This outcome will pilot practical gender and COVID-19 responsive climate-proofing of Imidugudus in the four pilot areas benefitting both the old and new IDP settlements. It will work alongside three villages that Government and the districts have already identified for resettlement into new more climate smart villages (Muramba, Gasharu and Muzo), and whose upgrade is already budgeted for by government (output 2.3). LDCF funding will support climate-proofing initiatives through ecosystem based and diversified livelihood activities for the beneficiary communities, building on the Government co-financing of USD 10 million. It will also work with Bukinanyana village, which is already resettled in a more climate smart village as well as the inhabitants of the rest of the 191 villages in the four mini-catchments to support the implementation of the EbA plans. This will including the rehabilitation of the degraded hotspots to restore ecosystems services, upgrading of housing and infrastructure around Imidugudu to more climate smart versions, adoption of climate smart agricultural practices to increase land productivity and food security, promote the uptake of water harvesting and efficient household energy options to reduce pressure on the forests and more effective utilization of existing value chains to increase household incomes and resilience. Collectively, these measures will enable the beneficiaries of the rural settlement programme to create, improve and sustain livelihood options that collectively reduce their exposure and sensitivity to climate risks at the landscape level while simultaneously increasing their adaptive capacities. The results of this pilot will inform the design of the entire settlement programme of Rwanda to include climate change adaptation.
Outcome 2 will utilize the results of outcome 1 (skills and tools); it will provide feedback to the planning process of outcome 1 and the policy reform under outcome 3, informed by on-the ground practical implementation. It will contribute to the formulation of the participatory monitoring and evaluation plan and generate the knowledge to be collated and shared via outcome 4. It therefore forms the core of the project, and will be delivered through six outputs, described below.
Output 2.1: Climate smart agricultural practices adopted to increase and sustain food production under uncertain climate and COVID-19 scenarios in the four pilot areas: Land productivity has declined significantly on isolated farms (outside the land consolidation system under the Crop Intensification Programme – CIP), with over 75% of the households reporting that they do not get surplus produce for sale, in an area where agriculture is the main source of livelihoods. The project will rehabilitate degraded and unproductive lands to increase land productivity and increase food production for consumption and sales, which increases adaptive capacity. The project will therefore support: a) households to consolidate farms and join the CIP; b) construction of radical and progressive terraces in degradation hotspots; c) diversify livestock farming systems; and, d) popularize crop and livestock insurance as measures to support climate responsive practices.
Under land consolidation, the project will assist households to consolidate their lands in order to start farming under the Crop Intensification Programme and take on other climate smart agricultural practices. It will therefore raise the awareness of the communities about the gender and COVID-19 responsive climate smart options available for adoption (for cropping, agroforestry and livestock systems) they can adopt. Individual households will be encouraged and supported to adopt the practices appropriate to their circumstances. Support for this output will be channelled through the Twigire Muhinzi structures whose functions are described in Box 5.
The project will also assist willing households to diversify livestock using the Girinka model. The Girinka provides one cow per household in a merry-go-round system. The project will work through producer cooperatives to facilitate households to engage in these alternative livestock production systems. The project will also train the households on practices to integrate pasture production and food production systems to increase availability of livestock feed.
The project will support households to adopt crop and livestock insurance schemes, offered by the private sector. The GoR has recently (2019) initiated a subsidized insurance scheme for selected crops (maize and rice) and cows under the Girinka, where it provides 60% of the premium. GoR has entered into collaboration agreements with three insurance companies (Radiant, SONARWA and Prime Insurance) to roll out these insurance schemes country-wide. Radiant Insurance Company has been designated (by GoR) to operate the programme in Kirehe and Gakenke. Many of the households in the project area are not yet fully conversant with how these insurance schemes will function. The project will mobilize farmers in the project area to join the insurance scheme, exploring means of raising the premium, e.g. through the SACCOs and VSLAs. Activities under this output will include: a) Confirm degraded agricultural lands and degradation hotspots (in conjunction with the EbA planning); (b) construct radical and progressive terraces on about 300ha, treated with manure and planted with crops such as beans, maize, bananas; (c) Rehabilitate the irrigation system in Bukinanyana by constructing at least one structure to capture and store rain water; (d) Facilitate land consolidation process for the resettled households (identify suitable crops, establish cropping cycles, in line with the adaptation plans and the established extension support cycle, mobilize farmers to participate (making their land available), facilitate the delivery of the extension services availed under the land consolidation programme; (e) Review the climate smart agriculture practices (many available online) and determine suitability for use by the project (taking into considerations gender and COVID-19 requirements); (f) Disseminate the information and make households aware of the various available options and support farmers to implement measures appropriate for them, through the regular extension service (Twigire Muhinzi); g) Update list of alternative livestock and the requirements for successful adoption and disseminate the information; h) Organize interested farmers into clubs and/or cooperatives which will generate initial funds (either through savings or link to micro loans), and support formulation of livestock merry-go-rounds (in the same manner as the one cow programme under Girinka); i) Collaborate with Radiant Insurance Company to disseminate information on crop and livestock insurance schemes and recruit households to register; j) Reflect on the process of facilitating adoption of climate smart agricultural practices to increase and sustain food production under uncertain climate scenarios in the four pilot areas and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2).
Output 2.2: Degradation hotspots (forests, hilltops and wetlands systems) identified by the EbA plans are rehabilitated to restore ecosystems services as the cornerstone of resilient livelihoods – covering at least 500 ha distributed across the 23,560ha: The baseline assessment identified degradation hotspots across the landscape of the four pilot areas (Table 2 and map 2 of Annex 1). These hotspots will be confirmed by the ecosystems-based adaptation plans to be formulated under outcome 1. Informed by the Environmental and Social Impacts Management Plan (ESMP), Gender and Stakeholder Engagement Plans, the project will treat these hotspots to boost the sustained provision of ecosystems services under the EbA context. This includes restoring forests to provide nature-based flood and erosion control, land stabilization in catchment areas and rehabilitating river banks to protect the water catchment services, reduce incidents of landslides and protect rivers and wetlands from siltation. The project will: a) stabilize 46km of degraded riverbanks via enforcement of rules and regulations prohibiting encroachment into the river channels combined with planting bamboo and other protective vegetation along the channels. These rivers include Rwagitugusa, Kibaya, Kagogo, Murutagara, Cyacika, Sumo, Mugambazi, Nyabarongo; b) engage communities in community-based protection of the 7,000 ha of forests found in the four project areas; c) implement reforestation programmes for at least 200 ha of degraded forest using the Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR guidelines) guidelines.
To ensure effective reforestation that balances trade-offs (economic, livelihoods needs and ecosystems restoration), reforestation will be guided by the Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR) Concept, where the villages will produce FLR plans following the methodology introduced by the World Resources Institute (WRI) and IUCN, as recently modified and applied for the Gatisbo FLR baseline conditions assessment. Under these guidelines, no known invasive species will be introduced. Species whose potential for invasiveness are unknown will be carefully assessed to avoid accidental introduction of invasive species. The project will specifically promote research on indigenous trees and grass species which balance quick growth rates, economic potential and protection of the environment. This is necessitated by the fact that high levels of poverty, high population densities and associated land shortage present a significant challenge to establishing/expanding indigenous forests, since they are seen to compete with food production. Agroforestry is currently the more feasible option for producing wood products and ecosystem goods and services. The major agroforestry practices to be promoted by the project will include boundary planting, contour hedgerows, home gardens, silvopastoralism and woodlots. Activities under this output include: a) Confirm the degradation hotspots and determine the community groups to actively participate in each of the rehabilitation works; (b) Undertake assessment of potential for invasiveness of all species considered for reforestation and promote research on indigenous species for rehabilitation, identify candidates and integrate them into the rehabilitation packages; (c) Mobilize/sensitize local communities in the hotspots, and refine training on specific rehabilitation measures/works (tree husbandry, terrace making and reestablishment of cropping systems on the new terraces, riverbank protection, etc.); (d) Establish tree nurseries (preferably via business arrangements, encouraging farmers who lose use of their lands for about a year (while establishing terraces) to take up such income generating activities; (e) implement land use zones in line with the EbA plans – e.g. survey and mark river channel boundaries to ensure clarity on all parties where utilization (annual crops, livestock rearing, etc.) should not cross; (f) Rehabilitate riverbanks by planting suitable grasses/trees, encouraging farmers who lose use of their lands for about a year (while establishing terraces) to take up such income generating activities; Maintain and protect seedlings (protect from grazing by livestock, monitor to replant if seedlings die off, weeding) for 2 years after planting; (g) Plant selected seedlings to reforest 200 ha; maintain and protect seedlings (protect from grazing by livestock, monitor to replant if seedlings die off, weeding) for 2 years after planting; h) reflect on the process of rehabilitating degradation hotspots (forests, hilltops and wetlands systems) to restore ecosystems services as the cornerstone of resilient livelihoods and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2).
Output 2.3: Upgrading of housing and communal facilities around the Imidugudu to more climate smart versions in four villages benefitting about 500 households: Output 2.3 will test the implementation of the Imidugudu climate proofing model developed under output 1.3. The project will support the climate proofing of the IDPs, in a gender and COVID-19 responsive processes. The support will be spearheaded by the Rwanda Housing Authority (RHA) under the District Development Strategies (DDS) of both Kirehe and Gakenke, informed by the findings and recommendations of the ESMP. It will support the RHA and the Districts to refine the selection of the sites for the new villages, ensuring that medium to long-term climate information and the status of the ecosystems inform the choice. It will work on the designs of the new homes, ensuring that climate risks are factored into the building plans, thereby testing, or contributing to the development of building codes for climate proofed Imidugudu to be developed under outcome 1. It will ensure that all the stakeholders engaged in the building process, including the private sector contractors, have been trained on climate proofing (training provided under output 1.4). The project will also upgrade communal facilities by implementing the greening measures outlined in the IDP Greening Toolkit (which will be updated by the project under output 3.1). Improving communal facilities will be contracted to the relevant private sector and will include upgrading roads, installing waste management systems, electricity installation (including solar power), establishment of tree nurseries and reforestation of the new villages, community halls and early education support systems. The project will explore geo-tagging of all climate proofed infrastructure, water bodies and other resources under the programme to enable interested stakeholders (communities and other decision makers) to track progress and better planning of resilient infrastructure. Activities for this output include: a) Provide technical input into the selection of sites, design and building of the new IDPs and climate resilient access roads, ensuring that each step incorporate measures to climate proof the process and the settlement programme; (b) Organize beneficiaries to establish nurseries, grow and plant various materials to green the public places in the new villages; (c) upgrade communal facilities to incorporate climate risks (roads, installing waste management systems, electricity installation (including solar power), d) reflect on the process of collaborating with government co-finance to upgrade houses to more climate resilient versions and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2). The design of the infrastructure and housing will deliberately integrate resilience and fit for healthy living in response to COVID-19, minimizing exposure to and community spread of diseases such as COVID-19. Consultations with health professionals will be done in the design of the housing and infrastructure.
Output 2.4: Rainwater harvesting and alternative energy options piloted in a gender and COVID-19 responsive process to increase resilience of livelihoods under the Imidugudu programme: Under this output, the project will support the beneficiaries of the resettlement programme (described under output 2.3) to acquire water harvesting structures to increase water available to households for domestic use and/or irrigation to counter the effects of irregular rainfall patterns. Implementation of this output will be closely guided by the ESMP and the Gender Action Plan. The project will support the acquisition of water storage facilities, based on best practices available. These could be tanks (underground and/or above ground as appropriate) for rain harvesting (minimum 3,000 litres). The project will undertake an assessment of water storage options to support adaptive capacity which are incremental in nature and use the findings to guide selection of systems to be disseminated. It will also support the uptake of alternative household energy technologies, to increase clean energy options and reduce pressure on the forests and the ecosystems. It will assist households to construct at least thirteen communal cowsheds (each shared by about 40 households), acquire a cow per household (under the national Girinka Programme) and construct and operationalize biogas units for the homes. Households will be engaged in a participatory process to identify cattle breeds that meet a multi-criteria system (including sustainability).
Many households in the IDP villages have experienced challenges with the biogas; indeed observations during the project planning process (confirmed verbally by District and National Government Officers) show that many biogas units have failed due to a combination of facts: a) the fixed dome bio-digester commonly used tends to be expensive, is complex to build and operate, and has a high rate of failure within the Imidugudu setting, especially in very cold places (such as Muzo/Kagano); b) The beneficiaries of the IDP villages are the very poor, many struggle with resources to maintain these systems (inadequate land, pasture and labour to feed the cows that produce the feed for the biogas) and an absence of a culture of maintenance, exacerbated by few available technicians to offer such services. The project will therefore utilize a mixture of household energy solutions which will include the following: a) explore cheaper, more efficient and less complex biogas systems such as the flexi-polyethylene tube digesters which utilize a broader range of materials – including waste from pigs, goats, sheep, rabbits, poultry, kitchen waste, market waste, grass, water hyacinth, farm weed and garden clippings. The project will review the outcome of several piloting initiatives undertaken in the country and if these are reliable and economically viable will actively support their uptake. (b) Biogas systems will be issued only to households who express the willingness and demonstrate abilities to maintain them. (c) Other households will be given the option of improved energy cookstoves. (d) Solar technologies will be promoted for both lighting and cooking. (e) At least 10 technicians will be trained on the biogas installation and maintenance as well as basic plumbing skills (for the maintenance of the water systems). The project will assist the communities to develop long term financing and business models for maintenance and replication of the technologies.
The project will further create awareness and demonstrate available solar technologies and improved cookstoves, encouraging local traders to supply them to increase availability locally. The Village Savings and Loans Clubs will be encouraged to use the joint savings to purchase solar equipment and the improved cookstoves under their normal mutual support systems, wherever appropriate. Activities under this output include: (a) Undertake an assessment of the different energy access options, including various biogas systems in use in the country and beyond and identify the appropriate system(s) for the households in the project areas; (b) Disseminate improved household energy options depending on the choices and abilities of households – includes construction of the selected biogas and BioSanGas toilets, improved cookstoves and solar technologies; (c) Construct thirteen communal cowsheds and link the households to the Girinka programme to acquire one cow per willing household; (d) Acquire 500 water tanks (each a minimum of 3000 litres); (e) Train (or provide refresher courses) for at least 10 technicians (5 of them females) on electrical, plumbing, biogas and road maintenance. These technicians will be engaged in the construction of these facilities to ensure practical on the job training; f) reflect on the process of providing improved water and energy systems and their role on increasing resilience and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2).
Output 2.5: Beneficiaries of the Imidugudu supported to utilize existing value chains to increase resilience via higher household incomes: The project will support households to effectively utilize the many existing value chains, in a gender and COVID-19 responsive process, to add value to produce and access markets, to increase household incomes and hence adaptive capacity, guided closely by the ESMP, the Gender Action Plan and the Stakeholder Engagement Plan. The value chains include milk, fruit processing, coffee, poultry, maize, beans and cassava sales. It will identify marketing cooperatives and increase their capacities to facilitate producers to cooperate, bulk and sell together, buy inputs together and add value through transforming together. The Table below shows an initial private sector mapping that will be expanded during project implementation and used to build stronger private sector engagement in project implementation. Annex 12 contains a list of other potential products and opportunities for bulking commodities with currently active value chains. Cooperatives will be provided with technical expertise (via training and coaching) to increase operational capacities and improve financial services to their members (improve financial literacy and savings). The project will refine the value chain and private sector engagement assessments undertaken during the project planning phase to create a list of active bulking and marketing opportunities and hence value chains and potential enterprises development opportunities; clear understanding of the challenges faced by households and potential entrepreneurs in accessing and utilizing current opportunities (in value chains and enterprise development); assess capacity needs and implement capacity building programmes and support the establishment of sustainable and scalable businesses. Activities under this output will include: i) analysis of market opportunities; ii) selection and implementation of income-generating activities to utilize the existing value chains (identified during the PPG and confirmed during inception phase), e.g. milk, coffee, fruits processing, poultry, mushrooms (detailed in Annex 12 – Baseline Assessment Report); iii) appropriate support to local communities on value-addition activities, including agro-processing and marketing skills; iv) financial education; v) formulation of sustainable financing options; vi) promote the development of local private sector agents such as agricultural service providers; vii) Establish an agribusiness forum for exchange on sustainable value chain development and private sector engagement; viii) reflect on the process of facilitating communities to utilize existing value chains and its contribution to building resilient livelihoods and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2).
Outcome 3: Policies and cross sectoral coordination
Under this outcome, the project will provide a policy enabling environment and improve cross sectoral coordination to create pathways for replication and scale up of the climate proofing concept. The project will ensure that the concept of climate proofing the Imidugudu and other infrastructure is captured in the national and district planning, budgeting and public investment systems, to provide a basis for budgetary provisions for its roll out. It will update REMA’s environmental planning tools to include principles of climate proofing. It will also increase the skills of institutions and platforms recently created by the GoR for cross sectoral coordination and disaster risk reduction. Building on the increased understanding and appreciation of the health-climate-environmental linkages due to COVID-19, the project will facilitate the involvement of the health sector in the cross-sectoral coordination capacity building process. The outcome will be delivered through two outputs, described below.
Output 3.1: Strategic review of policies, national and district strategies, programmes and planning tools to ensure they capture climate proofing of Imidugudu and other infrastructure programmes in the investment decision-making processes: Annex 12 shows the extent to which policies relevant to the Imidugudu mainstream climate risks. The project will facilitate stakeholders, in a gender and COVID-19 responsive process, to review the following strategic planning frameworks and to generate recommendations which will be provided to influence future planning cycles. These include the National Strategy for Transformation (NTS 1) 2017-2024, Rwanda’s National Investment Policy (NIP, 2017), the National Decentralisation Policy (2012), District Development Strategies (2018-2024), the Rural Settlement Strategic Sector Plan (2018-2024) and the Organic Law on State Finance and Property (No. 12/2013 of 12/09/2013 (Rationale for mainstreaming climate proofing Imidugudu in these instruments is provided in Box 6). The review of the Human Settlement Policy (2015) is currently under way, and likely to be completed by the time project implementation starts. The PIF and PPG processes informed the review of the policy. The project will therefore support the Rwanda Housing Authority to develop a strategy for implementing the revised policy, including aligning its budgets to the new policy provisions, to replicate and upscale the climate proofing concept. The project will also review the following relevant policies and programmes and make recommendations for reforms to ensure that they provide strong basis for integrating climate risk into development processes, hence promoting replication and upscaling of the climate proofing concept: National Urban Housing Policy (2008), National Disaster Management Policy (2012) and National Disaster Risk Management Plan (2013); the Strategic Programme for Climate Resilience (SPCR) (2017); the National Strategy for Transformation (NST; 2017–2024); the National Land Use and Development Master Plan (2011) (under revision), Local Urban Development Plans (LUDPs), and Detailed Physical Plans /Area Action Plans (AAP’s) for local implementation. It will then ensure that relevant environment and building protocols further integrate climate risk considerations. These include the Green Village Toolkit by REMA / PEI and the REMA’s Environmental management Tools and Guidelines. Activities under this output include: a) Review policies relevant to the Imidugudu (listed above), in a participatory and gender responsive process, recommend changes and advocate for their adoption; b) Update REMA’s Environmental management Tools and Guidelines; c) reflect on the process of using strategic policy reviews to ensure budgetary allocation for the upscaling of the climate proofing model in the Imidugudu programme and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2).
Output 3.2: Technical and community institutions trained to improve their effectiveness in the cross sectoral coordination units and networks recently created by the Government of Rwanda: The project will strengthen the systems for cross sectoral and District coordination (described in Box 4) created recently by the GoR to make it easy for technical departments to coordinate the multiple decisions needed to climate proof Imidugudu programmes. At the District level, these include the District Disaster Management Committees (DIDIMACs), Sector Disaster Management Committees (SEDIMACs) and the Joint Action Development Forums (JADFs). They also include community level institutions representing the communities – the Monthly Community Work (Umuganda), the parents evening forum (Umugoroba w’Ababyeyi) and general village assemblies (Inama Rusange y’Abaturage). Activities under this output will be implemented in a gender and COVID-19 responsive process and will include: a) Undertake training needs assessments for the disaster risk reduction and coordination committees, the JADF and the community institutions in the Kirehe and Gakenke districts and formulate a training programme, in conjunction with output 1.1; (b) Train the committees, JADF and the community institutions as per the training programme, in conjunction with output 1.1; c) reflect on the process of further strengthening capacities for the institutions mandated to coordinate cross sectoral and District coordination created recently by the GoR and the impacts on their capacities and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2).
Outcome 4: Knowledge Management supported by participatory and effective monitoring and evaluation
This outcome will provide monitoring and evaluation systems, codify knowledge and promote its dissemination to further support replication and upscaling. The project will design, in a gender and COVID-19 responsive process, a participatory M&E plan and integrate it into the M&E systems of the Twigire Muhinzi, District and/or relevant Sectors. It will also develop a comprehensive Communications and Knowledge Management Framework to coordinate communications and knowledge management (in a similarly gender and COVID-19 responsive manner). Knowledge products will be produced and disseminated targeting different audiences at all levels - local, national, international, including decision-makers, project partners, aligned programmes, community stakeholders. At least two knowledge sharing events will be held at the district level. This outcome is fundamental to monitoring the results of all the whole project, distilling and disseminating lessons. The outcome will be implemented through two outputs, described below.
Output 4.1: Development of participatory M&E plans and enhancement of communities’ capacities to monitor, learn and sustain the climate proofing initiative: The project will design a participatory M&E plan linked to the adaptation plans (in conjunction with output 1.4) and integrate it into the M&E systems of the Twigire Muhinzi, District and/or relevant Sectors. It will train community groups to provide the skills required for their effective participation in gathering data for monitoring, reporting it and using it to compile and learn lessons – to support adaptive management. The M&E system will take full cognizance of the complexity of ecosystems-based adaptation initiatives, especially the uncertainties of attributing improvements in environmental status to the outcomes in the short, medium and long-terms. At the district level, the implementation of the M&E system will link into existing GIS capacity in the Rwanda Land Management and Use Authority (RLMUA).
A project-specific monitoring and evaluation plan has been developed (described in Section 6 of this Prodoc and Annex 3). Activities under this output include: a) Building on participatory M&E plan produced via the EbA planning process, identify, in a participatory and gender responsive manner, additional indicators for the comprehensive monitoring of the effectiveness of the rural settlement programme on adaptive capacities of its beneficiaries. (b) Design and implement a training programme to equip the beneficiaries of the rural settlement programme in the project area to participate in data collection, storage, analysis and use of the outcomes of the process (in conjunction with output 1.1). (c) Design and implement a training programme for the technical institutions supporting the rural settlement programme on M&E, linking them to the GIS capacity of the Rwanda Land Management and Use Authority (in conjunction with output 1.1). (d) Refine the project Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (annex 3) to incorporate any amendments that may be necessary based on data or issues emerging from the planning process, and any refinement of the gender mainstreaming indicators. (e) Track project performance against the M&E framework quarterly, using UNDP Standard tools. (f) Carry out MTR and the TE and share lessons to improve current and future programming and implementation. (g) Reflect on the process of participatory M&E for communities under the EbA and Imidugudu Programmes and document lessons learnt (in conjunction with output 4.2).
Output 4.2: Best practices, lessons collated and shared, KM products codified and disseminated to support continued adaptation planning and implementation for the imidugudu program: The outcomes of this project are designed to strengthen the foundational capacities required to continue implementing climate-proofing measures in the Imidugudu programme and for on-going replication of similar initiatives country-wide. The project is therefore expected to contribute to the sustainability of all adaptation projects in and outside of the country. This output will promote dialogue, learning and cooperation between the project participants and other stakeholders inside and outside Rwanda, to catalyse upscaling. This will be achieved by engaging in communications and advocacy, knowledge networking and management. A comprehensive Communications and Knowledge Management Framework will be developed in Year 1, which will include strategic objectives, costed activities, roles, responsibilities, timeframes, workflows and institutional linkages to coordinate communications and knowledge management. The main elements of the Framework will include: (i) raising awareness through an effective community-led advocacy campaigns, supported by appropriate awareness-raising materials; (ii) developing and sharing communications pieces and knowledge products targeting different audiences (decision-makers, project partners, practitioners, community stakeholders), and using multiple formats, platforms and media; (iii) engaging in local, national and regional adaptation knowledge-sharing events and communities of practice, ensuring that lessons learnt in the project pilot sites inform similar projects being implemented elsewhere, and that lessons from other projects are used in adaptive management of the proposed project; (iv) collating, organizing and making available all information relevant to the project – through a dedicated webpage linked to the websites of the key institutions engaged in the project – RHA, REMA, MINAGRI, Gakenke and Kirehe Districts Councils and UNDP. All relevant project documentation will be uploaded to the UNDP PIMS+ platform. All communications will adopt, to the greatest extent possible, digital technology including mobile based applications and use of social media to disseminate information to communities.
Activities under this output will include: a) Develop a Communications and Knowledge Management Framework for the project. (b) Guided by the Framework: i) Establish and support a community-led advocacy programme for the project, working through Farmer Promoters and FFS Facilitators. (ii) Prepare and disseminate communications pieces and knowledge products targeting different audiences (decision-makers, project partners, aligned programmes, community stakeholders). The products should include policy briefs, technical reports, best-practice case studies for release via various knowledge platforms, social media (which could include Facebook and Instagram, with postings released via UNDP and Government of Rwanda platforms), YouTube video clips that can be accessed on mobile phones, radio interviews, articles in the printed media. (iii) Facilitate stakeholders to participate in local, national and regional lesson-sharing events convened by related projects and programmes, and compile lessons learnt reports or communications pieces based on this participation. (iv) Convene at least two lesson-sharing workshops during the project’s lifespan (preferably linked to MTR and TE feedback sessions), and compile the proceedings into lesson-sharing reports. (v) Set up a dedicated knowledge management system (web-based) where all information relevant to the project can be accessed, in a well-archived form.
 The data is available in a database – to avoid unnecessary data collection
 PICSA was developed by a broad partnership including the University of Reading and the CGIAR systems and was successfully piloted in four districts – Burera, Ngororero, Nyanza and Kayonza.
 Ministry of Natural Resources – Rwanda (2014). Forest Landscape Restoration Opportunity Assessment for Rwanda. MINIRENA (Rwanda), IUCN, WRI. viii + 51pp.
 World Resources Institute, Ornanong Maneerattana, Fred Stolle, Tesfay Woldemariam; 2017: Baseline Conditions of Forests and Landscapes in Gatsibo District. Methodologies for Understanding Restoration Progress through Biophysical, Socioeconomic and Governance Indicators: Gatsibo District, September 2017.
 Climate proofing of infrastructure such as roads will include, but not limited to engineering and structural measures (such as Slope stabilization structures such as dry stone wall, gabion wall and jute bag wall; paving of roads with durable materials; improved drainage systems to avoid erosion of materials; planning and design with proper cross section and dimensions) and bioengineering measures ( such as use of vegetation, either alone or in conjunction with civil engineering structures such as small dams, wall and drains to manage water and debris thereby reducing instability and erosion on slopes). Specific measures will differ by site.
 Costing around Rwf 800,000 and Rwf 900,000 respectively (US$ 1260 and US$ 1410) for a 6m3 and 8m3 tanks, respectively
 The two digester sizes available, 6 and 16 m3, cost about $500 and $800 respectively (includes the stove, gas pipes, installation)
 Sample platforms on which technical publications could be shared include: Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange (CAKE): http://www.cakex.org/ Ecosystems and Livelihoods Adaptation Network (ELAN) http://www.adaptationportal.org Nairobi Work Programme (NWP) http://unfccc.int/nwp
Natureandpoverty.net The Nature Conservancy: http://conserveonline.org/workspaces/climateadaptation weADAPT - http://www.weadapt.org/
Outcome 1: Enhanced institutional capacities, knowledge & climate information to integrate climate risks into the planning and implementation of ecosystems-based adaptation in the Imidugudu programme
Outcome 2: Adaptation measures implemented via landscape approach
Outcome 3: Improved Policy and coordination for effective integration of climate risks into the Imidugudu program
Outcome 4: M&E and Knowledge management
Barrier # 1: Inadequate technical capacity to generate relevant climate information and integrate climate risks into the planning, design and implementation of the Imidugudu program
- To effectively climate proof the rural settlement programme will require that local communities fully understand the risks to the programme emanating from climate change. It also requires that they understand the benefits and opportunities presented by climate change and have the skills to adopt climate smart solutions and adaptation practices. In addition, they need to understand and to have access to up-to-date, downscaled climate information and the appropriate tools and advisory services at their disposal.
- Although the quality of climate information has increased in the recent past, there are misalignments and capacity gaps in the climate information products and services value chain, from the collection, analysis and packaging of such information to meet the needs of communities, to the application of this information at local level to support the integration of climate risks into the rural settlement programme and adaptation decisions and actions. Consequently, majority of the population tend to mistrust the available climate information and weather forecasts. About 75% of the respondents to the baseline assessment undertaken during the formulation of this project reported that they did not use climate information in decision-making. Meteo Rwanda has limited capacity (up-to-date skills and state-of-the art equipment) to generate, analyse and provide usable weather and climate information. Insufficient training of staff of relevant departments within the Ministries of Infrastructure, Agriculture and Animal Resources and Environment, and Community Groups facilitating development at local levels such as the Joint Action Development Forum (JADF), cooperatives (SACCOs), Twigire Muhinzi and the associated Farmer Field Schools exacerbates the challenge of using climate information in the planning and implementation of the Imidugudu programme. These institutions have limited capacity to offer needed advisories and effective extension support to the communities which would enable them to adopt more resilient and productive practices within the rural settlement programme. Consequently, communities have limited awareness of the risks that climate change poses to the Imidugudu and their livelihoods and are not familiar with climate smart solutions to build their resilience and adaptive capacity.
- Climate proofing the Imidugudu programme is further hampered by a lack of a clear, locally applied/tested model to guide climate-proofing the Imidugudu programmes. Thus, a working definition for the climate proofing is yet to be developed; the requirements for the widespread application of such a model(s) are not yet known including the policy framework, institutional coordination, budgetary provisions or the skills and capacities required for its successful uptake. As a result, there are no prototype climate-resilient settlement designs; and the facilitators of the Imidugudu programme – such as the private sector engaged in building the model villages (architects, contractors) - have little awareness of the necessity of climate proofing the process, and have no tools or skills for climate proofing.
- While it is widely accepted that healthy ecosystems provide a cost effective means of reducing vulnerability of livelihoods to climate risks, the technical staff and the communities do not have the skills or the capacity to generate this knowledge and utilize it in facilitating a landscape approach or community based adaptation plans, that would guide the climate proofing of the Imidugudu program. The four sub-catchments targeted by this project are host to important river systems, wetlands and forests, which would provide cost-effective adaptation measures to secure the Imidugudu programme. These natural resources are highly degraded (Table 2), which sets off a vicious cycle where degradation of natural resources further increases poverty, often leading to negative capacity and coping strategies. Despite the high levels of vulnerability reported during the baseline assessment, none of the communities had any comprehensive plan(s) to tackle climate risks systematically.
- Outcome 1 will provide skills, information and tools to reduce and/or manage climate risks and secure the benefits of the Imidugudu programme.
Barrier # 2A: Imidugudu beneficiaries lack the financial resources to invest in available climate smart technologies and solutions to integrate climate risk into the Imidugudu and diversify and sustain climate-resilient livelihoods.
- The communities in the four project areas are resource-poor and unable to invest in the available climate smart technologies, opportunities and solutions for integrating climate risks into the Imidugudu and to diversify related livelihood systems. There are many opportunities to implement resilience building measures to existing and new Imidugudu, which include: a) rehabilitation of degraded ecologically sensitive resources to improve ecosystems services and the effectiveness of nature based adaptation technologies; b) uptake of climate smart agriculture practices to rehabilitate degraded agricultural land and increase food production and adaptive capacity; c) improved and climate smart livestock management practices such as uptake of Girinka programme (zero grazing system for cows) and diversification of livestock systems; b) use of improved household energy systems such as biogas, electricity (including solar); d) constructing water harvesting reservoirs that help address the prevailing water scarcity; and, e) utilization of existing value chains to add value to produce, access organized markets and increase household incomes, boosting adaptive capacity. Communities in the project area have underutilized these opportunities as explained below, further undermining their collective adaptive capacities.
- Increasing resilience of settlements by implementing village greening measures (measures outlined in Table 1): Muzo/Kagano and Muramba are not yet climate resilient settlements, Gasharu is an old Imidugudu site with only 120 families (with additional room for 400 more). Many of the homesteads are constructed with non-durable materials and are located in vulnerable sites, surrounded by degraded ecosystems, making them prone to climate risks (landslides and floods). Indeed, only one of the four pilot sites rated 50% along the criteria set by the government for a model village (Table 1). The RHA, in collaboration with the Kirehe and Gakenke Local Authorities, have identified many vulnerable households (categories 1 and 2) in the two districts. They have plans and budgetary provisions for settling many households into less vulnerable sites. However, the resettlement process is progressing slowly due to shortage of resources to build climate resilient houses and implement the greening processes simultaneously. Residents of these areas do not benefit from planned/consolidated dwellings and the associated access roads. More than 80% of the households do not have electricity or biogas, have no water harvesting facilities, and lack social amenities (community, health or technical training centres). Consequently, the beneficiaries of the new settlements to be established by RHA and the Local Councils will fall short of implementing these additional climate resilient measures, thus fall short of securing the benefits of the settlement programme from further climate risks.
- Ecosystems management to improve ecosystems services necessary to increase resilience: Ecosystem-based Adaptation is the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services, as part of an overall adaptation strategy, to help people to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. It aims to maintain and increase the resilience and reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and people in the face of adverse effects of climate change. However, the levels of ecosystems services at the project sites was reported to have deteriorated significantly due to degradation of ecosystems over the last decade (Table 2). Between 1990 and 2018, agriculture expanded by 8,439.70 ha and 5,140.20 ha of forests was lost. Currently, 10,410 ha of land faces moderate to extremely high risks of soil erosion and about 7,000 ha of forests are degraded. In addition, there are 288 ha and 47 kilometres of degraded wetlands and riverbanks, respectively. Despite these facts, there is limited protection and/or rehabilitation of these ecologically sensitive segments of the landscape, reducing the effectiveness of the natural capital in providing cost-effective adaptation infrastructure to the settlements and livelihoods.
- Limited uptake of climate smart livelihood support practices such as climate smart agriculture and diversification livestock systems, that would increase land productivity and diversify sources of household incomes, thus increasing resilience. Although the Crop Intensification Programme (CIP) was available in all four pilot areas, more than half of the households did not access the programme due to their inability to consolidate land with neighbours, a requirement for joining the CIP. In addition, many of the households cannot afford the 50% payment for irrigation equipment and technology (government subsidy covers the other 50%). Furthermore, although the Girinka Programme (one cow per family) is available in the four pilot areas, many respondents to the baseline assessment, especially women found it a challenge to keep cows. This is due to insufficient forage, lack of alternative choice (no small stock is offered to families who struggle to maintain the hybrid cows), limited consideration of gender aspect at project design level, limited land for eligible beneficiaries (families with less than 0.2 ha do not receive a cow while many teenage mothers fall in this category) and limited skills in the care and management of the given cows. None of the households had crop or livestock insurance, leaving them exposed to loss of capital due to unusual climate events.
Barrier # 2B: Low levels of community and local institutions’ capacity to add value to products and to effectively participate in existing value chains thereby limiting their access to high value markets
- Despite the presence of considerable number of value chains operating in the two districts (detailed in the baseline assessment report, example of coffee value chains in Box 2), households in the pilot sites found it challenging to utilize them to benefit from value addition and existing markets. This reduces their opportunities to diversify household incomes, thereby increasing vulnerabilities. The inability to link with value chains is attributed to weak cooperatives and absence of a culture of savings, exacerbated by high levels of financial illiteracy. Although savings would contribute to cushioning livelihoods against shocks from climate change, most people have very low levels of financial literacy which restricts their ability to save and access loans from formal financial services for improving agriculture and/or other income generating activities. Consequently, the number of people accessing these facilities is limited.
- There are many banks and financial institutions offering loans and investment packages (outlined in the baseline assessment report, example in Box 3). However, many people in the project areas are either unaware of these services, do not qualify for the services and/or belief the packages are too complex. Despite the many opportunities therefore, households in the target sites remain poor and outside this financial system. In Muramba, Muzo/Kagano and Gasharu, poor prices for milk sets a vicious cycle of weakening the milk savings and credit cooperative (SACCO) and irregular milk collection, high cost of transportation (3 hours to the processing unit). Furthermore, the local organizations had very limited capacities to undertake their stated objectives (particularly linking members to inputs, credits and markets), with a combined score of below 40% (using the modified UNDP Capacity Assessment System – Annex 12 ).
- Outcome 2 will support the practical implementation of measures to increase adaptive capacity, reduce exposure and sensitivity, thereby increase resilience.
Barrier # 3: Climate proofing Imidugudu is not recognized within the Rwanda Planning, Budgeting and Public Investment Systems
- The Government of Rwanda has taken keen interest in promoting strong adoption of adaptation and low carbon, climate resilience development strategies. Despite these advances, climate change is still seen as part of the environment agenda, rather than as part of the development or planning agenda. Furthermore, climate proofing the Imidugudu programme is not yet recognized within the country’s planning, budgeting and public investment system, limiting its national uptake. National priorities in Rwanda are implemented in accordance with planning frameworks that ensure coordination across all public institutions and adherence to national strategic objectives. This planning happens at three levels, namely: i) long-term planning at the national level; ii) medium-term planning at the national, sectoral and institutional level; and iii) annual planning at the institutional level. An issue that is not mainstreamed into these planning frameworks will not feature in the decision-making on national public investment, hence cannot be budgeted for, nor up scaled or replicated. The important planning frameworks include the National Strategy for Transformation (NTS 1) 2017-2024, Rwanda’s National Investment Policy (NIP, 2017), the National Decentralisation Policy (2012), District Development Strategies (2018-2024), the rural settlement Strategic Sector Plan (2018-2024) and the Organic Law on State Finance and Property (No. 12/2013 of 12/09/2013).
- Furthermore, important stakeholders involved in the planning and budgeting processes within the public sector investments are unaware of the importance of climate proofing the Imidugudu programme. They include Parliament, District Councils, Public Investment Committee (PIC), Local Government Projects Advisory Committee (LGPAC), Clusters, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN), National Development Planning and Research Department (NDPR), National Budget Department (NBD), Ministry of Local Government (MINALOC), Local Administrative Entities Development Agency (LODA), Rwanda Development Board (RDB), budget agencies, line ministries and agencies and districts.
- Coordination of climate proofing development initiatives at the district level is further exacerbated by the out-dated tools for environmental planning and the limited capacity for coordination of the institutional framework for disaster management and response established by the GoR in 2018, which includes national, district and sector level coordination mechanisms (see details in Box 4). A National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (NADIMAC) has been established and it provides interagency and multi-sectoral technical support to the Ministry in charge of emergency management (MINEMA) on disaster management, disaster risk management and risk reduction issues and concerns. District Disaster Management Committees (DIDIMACs) have been established by law in the 28 Districts; and, Sector Disaster Management Committees (SEDIMACs) have been established in all sectors of Rwanda. These two institutions are in charge of coordinating and implementing disaster management activities at the District and Sector levels. Nevertheless, these institutions are nascent and still require additional capacity to sustain the coordination role. Similarly, the Joint Action Development Forums and Monthly Community Work (Umuganda), the parents evening forum (Umugoroba w’Ababyeyi) and general village assemblies (Inama Rusange y’Abaturage), which provide important foci for cross sector coordination in the implementation of the rural settlement programme have limited require additional training to be carry out these roles more effectively.
- Outcome 3 will ensure that climate proofing of the Imidugudu programme is recognized within the country’s planning, budgeting and public investment systems and that key stakeholders in the district and national budgeting processes are aware of the importance of its mainstreaming, creating a sustainable pathway for its national uptake. It will also provide training to the district-level coordination institutions (DIDMACs, SEDIMACs, JADF and community institutions) and provide updated tools for environmental management - that mainstream climate risks related to the Imidugudu.
Barrier # 4: Inadequate knowledge management and M&E systems limit the use of experiences to improve rural settlement programme on a larger scale
- Robust M&E, knowledge management systems are critical; they would enable the beneficiaries of the Imidugudu and the technical institutions that support them to learn from experience and lessons generated in Rwanda and abroad to collectively improve climate proofing and adaptation actions. However, these groups are not adequately or systematically monitoring the impacts of the programme on adaptive capacities of the beneficiaries. This is because they have no systems for monitoring and evaluation or knowledge management. The M&E and knowledge management systems of the institutions supporting the rural settlement programme and the associated livelihoods, such as the Twigire Muhinzi and the Local District Councils also have limited capacities for M&E and KM, because these functions are inadequately prioritized in budgeting processes. Outcome 4 will create participatory M&E and KM systems and build the capacity for the same for local communities and the support technical institutions.
 For example, Meteorological Services of Rwanda (Meteo-Rwanda) has recently reconstructed rainfall and temperature data to compensate for the significant decline in meteorological station data coverage from the mid‐1990s to around 2010. In addition, Meteo Rwanda generates weather information at 4x4 kilometre grid and communicates it using the administrative boundaries as reference.
 An improved Imidugudu is expected to have basics such as: planned/consolidated dwellings constructed with good quality permanent materials, have access to modern energy systems such as electricity, biogas, liquid petroleum gas, solar technologies, be equipped with water harvesting systems such as water tanks, have an established Girinka programme (access to one cow per family with a communal shed) and other economic activities linked to vibrant value chains, be served by public facilities such as a community hall, health facility, Early Childhood Centre and a technical training centre, members have access to land under the land consolidation program (with its improved extension services, commercialization and access to value chains), have well developed access roads (tar, murram) and that members have insurance, preferably for crop and/or livestock.
 Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2009). Connecting Biodiversity and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: Report of the Second Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change. Montreal, Technical Series No. 41, 126 pages.
 Source - (Prime Minister’s order No006/03 of 30/01/2017 “Drawing a list of Swamp Lands, their characteristics and boundaries and determining modalities of their use, development and management
 48.8% of the men reported accessing land under the programme compared to 32.3 of the men and 14% of the youth
 Implemented since 2008, the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI) has used the CIP to promote commercialization of agriculture products and boost economic development of famers, supported by input schemes and value chains.
 The baseline assessments undertaken during the project formulation revealed that: (i) over 85% of farmers in the pilot areas do not use irrigation currently; (ii) irrigation produces a significant increase in yields both in Kirehe (where the climate is dry) and Gakenke (less dry, but high rain variability); (iii) a typical 0.25 ha farm could spend in the range of RWF 930,000 (~USD 1,000) to purchase a pump, sprinklers, pipes and accessories; (iv) half of the investment is covered by the subsidy the government; the remaining half needs to be finance by the farmer (or cooperative) directly, through loans or, if available, contributions from donors and NGOs.
 Government of Rwanda, 2018. GENDER MONITORING OFFICE ANNUAL REPORT 2017-2018. http://www.gmo.gov.rw/fileadmin/user_upload/reports/GMO_Annual_Report_2017-2018.pdf
Linkage of the proposed project to National Development Strategies and Priorities: Climate proofing the rural settlement programme and enhancing resilience of the livelihoods of the beneficiaries of the programme will to Government Priorities set out in key national programmes and development strategies including:
- the Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy and National Strategy on Climate Change and Low Carbon Development for Rwanda (GGCRS), which provides a pathway to address climate change and low carbon development, with an aim of making a significant impact on adaptation, mitigation and economic development. The strategy was developed in recognition of the fact that if the country is to tackle climate change, it needs to be mainstreamed into Vision 2050 and Sector strategies. The GGCRS aims to guide the process of mainstreaming climate resilience and low carbon development into key sectors of the economy. With a focus on agroforestry, climate knowledge, irrigation and roads infrastructure as its main tenants for adaptation, it provides a strategy focusing on green, low carbon development, but does not explicitly provide mechanisms to deal with vulnerabilities, associated with climate change. The project will contribute to tackling some of the barriers hampering its full implementation, including inadequate awareness, lack of practical tools for mainstreaming in many sectors (e.g. the rural section of the human settlement policy) and capacity inadequacies amongst stakeholders.
- the National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA): Objective four of the NAPA aims at providing assistance to districts of vulnerable regions to plan and implement conservation measures and water storage. Objective five aims to increase adaptive capacity of grouped settlement "Imidugudu" located in vulnerable regions by improving potable water, sanitation and alternative energy services, and the promotion of non-agricultural jobs. The project contributes to these objectives directly.
- Vision 2050 focuses on five broad priorities: High Quality and Standards of Life; Developing Modern Infrastructure and Livelihoods; Transformation for Prosperity; Values for Vision 2050; and, International cooperation and positioning. The project will contribute directly to the aims of vision 2050 - improved natural resources management, mainstreaming climate risk and gender, which are considered important foundational issues for the achievement of the Vision. The implementation instrument for the remainder of Vision 2020 (from 2017 to 2020) and the first four years of Vision 2050 (2021 – 2025) will be the National Strategy for Transformation (NST1). Priority Area number 7 of the NST1 recognizes sustainable management of the environment and natural resources as the pathway healthy lives and a Green Economy, focusing on Forestry, Land, Water, Environment and Climate Change. Under increased access to and use of sustainable and low carbon energy, the number of households depending on biomass as a source of energy for cooking is expected to reduce from 83.3% (2014) to 42% by 2024. This will be achieved by working with the private sector to increase the uptake of improved cooking stoves and to promote the use of alternative fuels such as cooking gas and biogas in both urban and rural areas
- National strategy for climate change and low carbon development (2020 to 2050). The strategy outlines actions that Rwanda can take in the short to medium term to ensure its future stability and prosperity in a changing climate and uncertain energy future. The strategy calls upon national planners to chart a new development pathway for integrated sector planning that balances cross-cutting issues of resource management. The project contributes to all the three core strategies of the National strategy for climate change and low carbon development: a) To guide national policy and planning in an integrated way; b) To mainstream climate change into all sectors of the economy, and (c) To position Rwanda to access international funding to achieve climate resilience and low carbon development.
- Strategic Programme for Climate Resilience (SPCR): The objective the SPCR is to enhance integrated, economy-wide, multi-sectoral climate resilience and to drive climate-responsive investment in Rwanda. Funded by the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), the SPCR aims at transformative impact through: a) Increased resilience of households, communities, businesses, sectors and society to climate variability and climate change; b) Strengthened climate responsive development planning. The proposed LDCF project contributes to these two overall goals, as well as directly to the four strategic programmes of the SPCR, namely: i) Agriculture Driven Prosperity under which it will provide climate-smart strategic support to Rwanda’s agriculture and agroforestry sectors, while implementing participatory adaptation and climate resilient infrastructure in targeted areas. (ii) Water Security for All, under which it will enhance climate resilience of surface water and groundwater systems, promoting sustainable access to water, and reducing vulnerability in the face of increasing uncertainty in runoff. (iii) Climate Resilient Human Settlements under which it will build Rwanda’s population resilience to shocks and stresses, by securing more reliable infrastructure and service delivery, and integrating climate change considerations into urban development. (iv) Stable and Sustainable Landscapes under which it will safeguard Rwanda’s most fragile and disaster-prone landscapes, to reduce communities’ vulnerability to floods and landslides and to enhance preparedness for a wide range of climate change impacts.
 Republic of Rwanda, 2017: National Strategy for Transformation 1: THE 7YEAR GOVERNMENT PROGRAM 2017-2024
The project aims to help Guinea increase its capacity to adapt to climate change impacts by strengthening linkages between research-policy, mainstreaming climate change adaptation into sectoral and local planning and budgeting and advancing national funding mechanisms and private sector engagement. The project addresses the main barriers that were identified during an earlier stocktaking exercise. The barriers identified include the lack of links between research and policymaking, weak measurement, evaluation and funding mechanisms, and insufficient private sector engagement in the adaptation efforts.
The main objective of the project “Enhancing research and policy linkages to advance National Adaptation Planning in Guinea” is to increase Guinea’s adaptive capacity to cope with climate change impacts. The project is expected to establish research to support informed decision-making and capture opportunities that arise both from public funding and the private sector.
Guinea is experiencing negative socio-economic impacts of climate change due to its exposure to sea level rise, droughts, and flooding. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted in 2015 outlines climate change adaptation priorities, such as the preservation and restoration of water resources, protection of ecosystems particularly in coastal zones, and ensuring food security of rural communities.
Based on stakeholder consultations and stocktaking conducted in 2016 and 2018, the main barriers to climate change adaptation mainstreaming and financing were identified as (1) the absence of links connecting research to policy to inform decision-making processes; (2) weaknesses in and/or fragmentation of existing coordination, monitoring & evaluation (M&E), and funding mechanisms; (3) the absence of adaptation in the Planning-Programming-Budgeting-Monitoring and Evaluation (PPBSE) procedures; and (4) lack of private sector involvement in the adaptation landscape.
The project aims to remove these barriers by achieving the following objectives under the three main outcomes:
1. Research-policy linkages and knowledgebase are strengthened to inform adaptation planning and decision-making:
- Establish research-policy linkages to support the NAP (National Adaptation Plan) formulation and implementation;
- Develop a climate risks and vulnerability evidence base that informs the identification and prioritization of adaptation options in the sectors of agriculture, livestock, and forestry.
2. Climate change adaptation mainstreaming is facilitated by reinforcing coordination and M&E mechanisms:
- Operationalize a sustained and suitable coordination mechanism to support mid and long-term adaptation;
- Enhance adaptation mainstreaming into sectoral and local planning and budgeting;
- Establish adaptation M&E mechanisms in adherence with the existing national M&E system.
3. A national funding mechanism and private sector engagement are expanded to support adaptation financing:
- Support the Environmental Safeguard Fund (FSE) mechanism to raise awareness on funding sources and expand mandate for the financing of adaptation actions;
- Enhance the mining sector’s engagement on adaptation and climate financing.
Furthermore, a follow-up project will be proposed to fill gaps identified through this phase and develop Guinea’s NAP document. The results of the current project will inform the proposal, consolidating existing climate risks and vulnerability assessments and prioritization of adaptation options in the priority sectors of agriculture, livestock, forestry, coastal and water resources. The planned second phase will further consider promoting sustainable cities, clean cities, and blue economy for which the national strategy is currently being developed.
In addition to the main project implementing partner, the Ministry of Environment, Water and Forests, and other project partners including the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), National Directorate of the Environment (DNE)/current National Directorate of Pollution, Nuisance and Climate Change (DNPNCC), sectoral Strategy and Development Offices (BSD), the various research institutes, the Center for Observation, Monitoring and Environmental Information (COSIE), the National Institute of Statistics (INS), the Fund for the Environment and Natural Capital (FECN), the Bauxite Environment Network (REB), Guinea-Ecology, civil society organizations and municipalities.
To date, the Research-Policy Working Group (RPWG) mandate, structure and composition have been elaborated, as well as the Environment and Climate Change Research Plan (PRECC) and the Climate Change Adaptation Policy Indicators Metadata. The project further prepared the report on the collection of data from public services and technical and financial partners for the updating of climate models and projections based on the RCP in Guinea, the analysis of climate projections for Guinea using the RCP reference scenarios and the validation of the projection models, as well as the data collection report on the establishment of a coordination and capacity building system.
Outcome 1: Research-policy linkages and knowledge base are strengthened to inform adaptation planning and decision-making.
Outcome 2: Climate change adaptation mainstreaming is facilitated by reinforcing coordination and monitoring and evaluation mechanisms.
Outcome 3: A national funding mechanism and private sector engagement are expanded to increase climate change adaptation financing.
The project activities aim to strengthen adaptation-related prioritization and planning, financing and capacity development, supporting Niger in integrating climate change into medium- and long-term development planning and budgeting through the NAP process. Reducing Niger’s vulnerability to climate change requires greater investments and greater integration of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction into ongoing development programmes. The project works in synergy with other initiatives. It supported the National Disaster Risk Prevention and Management Facility to integrate climate change into its strategy, and the development of the NDC through gender studies and climate scenarios. The project also enables the implementation of Niger's national climate change strategy. The project addresses the main challenges in integrating climate change adaptation into planning and budgeting in Niger, as identified in its NAP Stocktaking Report.
The exposure to climate risks, associated with its position as a Sahelian landlocked country, makes Niger one of the most vulnerable countries in the world. The 42.8 percent of the GDP, and 80 percent of the workforce are employed in the agriculture, forestry and livestock sectors. Climate change is expected to worsen climate risks over the next decades, with an increase in the frequency of droughts, resulting in a decrease in agricultural production, an increase in grazing pressure on pastoral ecosystems, and consequently soil erosion on a mass scale, threatening food security; and floods resulting from the heavy rainfall. The country was ranked 188 out of 188 in the UNDP’s Human Development Index in 2015, with 89.8 percent of the population living in multidimensional poverty.
The foundations for the NAP process have been built through the preparation of the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) in 2006 with support from UNDP and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The NAPA identified urgent and most immediate needs in seven vulnerable sectors and fourteen priority adaptation interventions. The National Climate Change Policy (PNCC) adopted in 2013 provides the overall strategic framework to tackle climate change. To move beyond urgent and immediate needs, and towards a medium-term approach, Niger intends to integrate climate change into medium- and long-term development planning and budgeting through the NAP process, under its obligation to the UNFCCC and as stated in its PNCC. This process will contribute to ensuring that the country’s long-term development strategy - starting with its Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy (SDDCI) and its National Economic and Social Development plans - be based on an understanding of climate-related risks and opportunities for inclusive growth and sustainable development.
Niger has been advancing its NAP process by conducting a preliminary stock take of relevant initiatives on climate adaptation and mainstreaming to identify gaps and needs. A NAP roadmap was subsequently drafted, which outlined the main steps and timeline of advancing the NAP process in Niger.
This project will be steered at country level by the Executive Secretariat of the National Council of Environment for Sustainable Development (SE/CNEDD), which is the coordinating body for all Rio Conventions and climate change-related initiatives and the National Designated Authority to the GCF. It will closely engage the Ministry of Planning and the Ministry of Finance, as well as key sectoral ministries, national training and research institutions and civil society, including the private sector. It will closely coordinate with other related initiatives such as the GEF-LDCF adaptation planning in the water sector project, the EU-funded PARC-DAD and the World Bank Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience. The project is aligned with the “Nigeriens Nourish the Nigeriens” Initiative (Initiative 3N), the Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy (SDDCI), the National Economic and Social Development Plan (PDES), and the National Climate Learning Strategy.
The draft NAP was developed through consultations (ministries and technical institutions, representatives of communities, the private sector, religious and traditional leaders, women's and youth organizations, civil society and media), combined with an analyses of climate data and vulnerability to climate change and assessments and capacity building of stakeholders. 25 adaptation options were identified and prioritized for the five sectors (livestock, health, transport, forestry and wetlands) and the draft NAP document was enriched and validated through regional workshops; the final validation through a national workshop is scheduled for 2022.
In collaboration with other entities, including the Executive Secretariat of the National Environment Council for Sustainable Development (CNEDD), a monitoring and evaluation system is being set up to track the progress of climate change adaptation initiatives.
In addition, a communication and knowledge management strategy has been developed to disseminate the results of the NAP process.
Output 1: National mandate, strategy and steering mechanism are in place and gaps are assessed and addressed
Output 2: Preparatory work for the NAP undertaken to develop a knowledge-base and compile a NAP
Output 3: NAP implementation facilitated
Output 4: Mechanisms for Reporting, Monitoring and Review of NAPs and adaptation progress in place
Output 5: Funding strategy for the NAP and CCA is available
Funded by the Green Climate Fund (GCF) Readiness Programme, the "NAP-2: Advancing Moldova’s National Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process" project is supporting the Government of Moldova to develop the country’s national development plan for climate change adaptation. The project aims to 1) strengthen and operationalize the national steering mechanism for climate change adaptation, 2) improve the long-term capacity on planning and implementation of adaptation actions through CCA technologies; and 3) improve the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation in priority sectors through the increased alignment of national development priorities.
The NAP-2: Advancing Moldova’s National Climate Change Adaptation Planning project aims to address the barriers in prioritizing national investments in climate change adaptation and to increase the human and financial capacity for the implementation of the priority actions identified during the NAP-1, and those that will emerge under this NAP-2 initiative. To accomplish this overall goal, the project activities have been designed to address the gaps and barriers identified in the NAP-1 and in the Stocktaking Report. Through the NAP process, Moldova will realize a long-term paradigm shift towards climate resilience in its national and sectoral development planning.
The project aims to address the barriers in prioritizing national investments in climate change adaptation and to increase the human and financial capacity for the implementation of the priority actions identified during the NAP-1, and those that will emerge under this NAP-2 initiative. To accomplish this overall goal, the project’s activities have been designed to address the gaps and barriers identified in the NAP-1 and in the Stocktaking Report. Through the NAP process, Moldova will realize a long-term paradigm shift towards climate resilience in its national and sectoral development planning.
The Government of Moldova sees the National Adaptation Planning (NAP) process as a key to achieving the adaptation objectives outlined in its 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), as well as the continued mainstreaming of climate change considerations into its policies and budgeting processes. The NAP process was launched in 2014 through consultations with national stakeholders with the support of the Austrian Development Agency (ADA) and UNDP.
Over the last decade, Republic of Moldova has experienced several extreme events, such as droughts and major floods, along with the incremental effects caused by increased mean temperature, and the uneven distribution of precipitation through the year, which have had negative consequences on the country’s economy, and its population wellbeing and health. Severe droughts are recurring more frequently causing significant economic losses; the droughts of 2007 and 2012 for instance have caused an estimated loss of around USD 1 billion and USD 400 million respectively, impacting 80 percent of the rural population. In addition, the damages from the floods of 2008 and 2010 are estimated at around USD 120 million and USD 42 million respectively. Climate projections indicate further increase in the average temperature, and an additional 12 days with zero precipitation.
In addition to the key implementing partner, the Ministry of Environment, other project partners include the Ministry of Infrastructure and Regional Development, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Health and National Commission on Climate Change.
- National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy updated with the NAP-2 overarching goal and sector-specific adaptation objectives articulated in the Climate Change Adaptation Action Plans of health and forestry sectors, and in the Development Action Plans of the transport, energy and building sectors;
- Monitoring and Evaluation system with improved data analysis to support decision making developed;
- Climate Change Adaptation Capacity Development Plan updated and adopted by the five key sectors;
- Climate change information and knowledge management portal that supports the NAP process and mainstreaming of climate change adaptation considerations launched;
- Adaptation Plans for seven district towns developed;
- Technology Roadmap for each key sector (transport, energy, water, forestry and health) developed based on Technology Needs Assessment;
- 5 investment project ideas developed to be submitted to Green Climate Fund.
The NAP2 Project has delivered the Climate Change Capacity Development Plan (CDP) which lays the foundation for strengthening institutional capacities to mainstream climate change considerations into sectorial policies and implementation of the policies.
In addition, the Climate Change Knowledge Management Roadmap was developed which provides a better understanding of the national capacities needed to produce, collect, and use climate change information and knowledge. This forms the foundation for the Climate Change Information and Knowledge Management Platform, one-stop shop for all climate related information which is currently under development.
The project supported the assessment of the meteorological and hydrological network which enabled the State Hydro-meteorological Service of Moldova (SHS) to seek further support from Sweden, World Bank and Meteo-France International in terms of data digitalization and improving meteorological and hydrological monitoring. The project finalized market research for introducing new climate services and increasing awareness of the importance of hydrometeorological and climate services. The project is currently supporting the SHS with development of the Law and Regulation on hydrometeorological activity as well as the development of a methodology for calculation of tariffs for climate services.
The National Climate Change Adaptation Programme (NCCAP) until 2030 is being developed in a participatory manner which will support the alignment of the national adaptation goals with the aims of the Paris Agreement in transport, energy, water, forest, and health sectors. The first draft of the NCCAP was submitted to the Ministry of Environment recently. Throughout 2022, climate change adaptation considerations are being mainstreamed into the sectoral policies.
Regarding the technology needs assessment (TNA), the ‘Identification and prioritization of adaptation sectoral technologies’ and ‘the Barrier Analysis and Enabling Framework of TNA analysis’ were conducted involving relevant stakeholders from the five priority sector Working Groups (water, transport, energy, forestry, health). As a result, 115 technology fact sheets (TFS) as well as elaborated versions of the 53 TFS were produced and measures to overcome barriers were identified.
The project objectives will be achieved through three outcomes that relate to strengthening national capacities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation considerations, to producing actionable climate risks and vulnerability assessments, and to implementing effective methods, tools and information systems to better inform decision-making on climate risks. The three outcomes build on each other in a progressive and interrelated approach that strengthens the national conditions for adaptation.
Outcome 1: National steering mechanism for climate change adaptation strengthened and operationalized
Outcome 2: Long-term capacity on planning and implementation of adaptation actions improved
Outcome 3: Mainstreaming of climate change adaptation is improved through the increased alignment of national development priorities, in the priority sectors (forestry, health, energy and transport).
The main project objective is reducing the vulnerability of communities and productive ecosystems in the Municipality of San Francisco Menendez to drought risk, soil erosion, and flash floods due to climate change and climate variability. The project will integrate forest landscape restoration as a climate change adaptation strategy targeted towards increasing forest cover, improving the hydrological cycle, increasing the amount of available water, and regulating surface and groundwater flows, while maintaining and improving water supply and quality. The project landscape approach will ensure that land degradation is reduced (or reversed) and that productivity is maintained and made resilient to climate change impact, thus contributing to better food security and community resilience. By ensuring and enabling institutional and governance environment, the project will generate coordinated and informed actors with the capacity to address appropriate adaptation measures in the medium and long term thus resulting in a genuine local resilience to climate change.
The project will meet its objective by restoring 3,865Ha of forest landscape within San Francisco Menendez, through a landscape-based ecosystem intervention that will focus on the restoration of critical landscapes and enhance its capacity to manage droughts, soil erosion and flash floods; promoting and implementing climate resilient and economically viable productive alternatives in the region that address the economic vulnerability being faced in the region as traditional agricultural systems have become less productive due to climate change; generating climate and hydrological information products in the region to identify and monitor the impact of climate change in the landscape and also the effectiveness of ecosystem based interventions in their management to improve local and national responses; and enhancing local capacity to take concerted action in addressing climate change impact, prioritizing adaptation interventions and mobilizing the financing necessary for their implementation.
- El Salvador has been identified by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as one of the countries with the highest sensitivity to climate change. According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, the country is characterized by a high exposure to geoclimatic threats, resulting from its location and topography, exacerbating climate change induced risk and vulnerability of human settlements and ecosystems. The Global Climate Risk Index for the period between 1997 to 2016, covering both human and economic impacts, ranks El Salvador 16th in the world, emphasizing the country’s high vulnerability to extreme climate events. There is ample evidence of climate change and variability affecting all sectors of society and economy, at different spatial and temporal scales, from intra-seasonal to long-term variability as a result of large-scale cyclical phenomena. A study from The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) found that between 1980 to 2008, an average of 1.5 natural disasters per year resulted in nearly 7,000 human casualties, affecting 2.9 million people, and costing US $470 million to the central government (amount that is equivalent to 4.2% of the Gross Domestic Product). The country of El Salvador spends an equivalent to 1.1% of its total GDP with dealing with climate change related impacts and infrastructure every year on average.
- El Salvador is the most densely populated country in Central America (342 people per km²) with a population of approximately 6.46 million inhabitants, of which 52.9% are women. The country’s territory totals 21,040 km², with a rugged topography (50% of total land mass has slopes of over 15%), highly erodible soils and the lowest per capita availability of freshwater in Central America5. According to the measurement of compound poverty, 35.2% of the total Salvadoran households are poor, equivalent to 606,000 homes to approximately 2.6 million people. Similarly, the multidimensional poverty rate in rural areas is 58.5%, and 22.5% in urban areas. Thirty-eight percent of the country’s population resides in rural or non-urban areas, of which 20% are women. In all the departments, other than one, over 50% of rural households are multidimensionally poor and as such are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Figure 1). Homes with this condition have the following deprivations: 37% food insecurity; 49% lack of access to drinking water; 83.7% no access to public health.
- Sixty percent of the national territory is devoted to agriculture, which is the main source of livelihood for the rural population in the country. About 36% of the total country territory is arable land, with corn as the main subsistence crop, followed by rice, beans, oilseeds, and sorghum, and with the cultivation of coffee and sugar cane as major cash crops The effects of climate change, as observed over recent years, have directly affected the productivity across the whole spectrum of the agricultural sector, with significant impacts on smallholder farming. According to the last agricultural census, there are more than 325,000 producers of basic grains who work in land parcels of sizes ranging between 0.7-3 hectares. Not surprisingly, 52.4% of the farmers organize their agricultural activity in parcels averaging 0.7 hectares, with an average corn production of 1.427 kg/ha. This production may satisfy the immediate needs of a family household (requiring only 1,300 kg of corn per year), but is significantly lower than the national average production (2,575 kg/ha). Impact from extreme weather such as the tropical storm Mitch (1998) caused damages and total loss of US $388.1 million, with US $158.3 million (40.8% of the total) impacting the agricultural sector. The 2001, drought reported damages and loss for US $31.4 million and 81% for the farming industry. Hurricane Stan (2005) caused US $355.6 million in damages and loss, US $48.7 million and 13.7% of the total for the agricultural sector. The Tropical Depression Twelve-E (DT 12-E) in 2011 carried a price tag of US $306 million in damages and losses in the agricultural sector. Between 2014 and 2015, losses in agriculture, as a result of severe drought, costed the country more than US $140 million, with greater impact felt on subsistence crops (corn and beans), as well as in the dairy industry which lost more than 10% of its production. The sustained dry spell followed by high temperatures, has also caused severe damage to the health of human populations, to the broader agricultural sector, and the natural environment. Furthermore, the reduction or deficiency in rainfall over the period has also affected the availability and quality of superficial and underground water resources.
Extreme weather hazards and climate change in El Salvador
- El Salvador is currently impacted by the effects of climate variability and change, with highly variable rainfall patterns, both spatial and temporal, which is leading to an increase in the number of extreme climatic events (i.e. tropical cyclones, floods and droughts). Over time, El Salvador has passed from experiencing one event per decade in the sixties and seventies, two in the eighties, four in the nineties, to eight extreme events in the last decade. This shows a shift from previous decades, when extreme events hitting the country would originate mostly from the Atlantic Ocean, and had its first wave of impacts mitigated by the land mass of neighbouring countries. This is no longer the case, since the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones originating from both the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans has increased over the past two decades.
- Studies from the National Service of Territorial Studies (Servicio Nacional de Estudios Territoriales, SNET) reveal that at least 10% of the country is prone to floods, 20% percent is exposed to landslides, 50% is affected by drought. The poorest segments of the population are particularly hit by natural disasters, as they are more likely to live in hazardous parts of the territory, such as flood plains, river banks, steep slopes, and fragile buildings in densely populated zones.
- In 2014, the average accumulated rain for July ended as the lowest in the last 44 years on record, and in 2015 the average accumulated rain during the rainy season was the lowest ever recorded, reaching only 63% of what should be expected given normal historic climate conditions (Figure 4). Extended drought periods in the country, have traditionally been followed by high temperatures, hindering progress and functioning of important sectors of the economy, including agriculture, health, water resources, and energy. According to the Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), approximations from Central America’s main the prima harvest for 2015 showed a decline of 60% in the total maize harvest, and 80% in the total beans harvest due to drier than normal weather conditions.
- Consecutive dry years, in which the dry spells last for extended periods of time, have become more frequent due to climate change. This has had wide spread effect across different sectors, consequently increasing risk and vulnerability of populations in El Salvador. Most importantly, this causes reduction on the availability of food (also affecting its access and use), due to impacts on income and basic goods availability in certain regions of the country, with serious social and economic impacts in the long-term. Furthermore, extended drought periods in the region has made landscapes more susceptible to soil erosion, floods and landslides, especially in the advent of localized rainfall in excess. Droughts in El Salvador are also known for causing fluctuations in food prices, plant pests epidemic, animal disease propagation, financial and political instability.
National Climate Scenarios
- The climate change scenarios indicate that in the coming years, El Salvador will experience more intense, and more frequent, extreme events. According to the projected scenarios, the country will consistently face reductions in precipitation and constant increases in temperature (Figure 5). The National Climate Scenarios produced by the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) show that over the course of this century, the average temperatures (maximum and minimum averages) will increase considerably, with the magnitude of the change being most marked for the period 2071-2100.
- Average and minimum temperature will shift considerably between the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under all climatic scenarios. This represent changes between 1 °C and 3 °C and up to 4.5 °C towards the end of the century. These projected changes in temperature for El Salvador, are most in line with the changes projected by the IPCC. Temperature increases of such magnitude, will have direct effect on the temperature of the Pacific coast. When breaking and zooming into the time series of projections, the data shows that, in the near future (between 2021-2030 and 2031-2041), all scenarios point out to shifts between 0.7 °C and 1.5 °C, which is higher than what its observed today. The last decade in the period under consideration, presents the greatest changes in temperature with values between 1.5 °C and 2 °C in the country. These projections reveal that, in the future, 90% of the national territory will be subject to average temperature values above 27 °C.
- All scenarios point to a decrease in precipitation between 10% to 20%, across the country between 2021-2050, with some regions being expected to see a reduction above 20% (under a high emissions scenario). This would represent a reduction of no less than 200 mm per year in precipitation. Comparably, towards 2041-2050 the magnitude of rainfall reduction will remain on the mark between 10% to 20%, similar to the previous period. It is worth noting that projected changes between 2031-2040 can be attributed to already ongoing climate change and variability processes in El Salvador, and that these changes are within the scope of the IPCC projections for the region.
- The projected scenarios for the period between 2071-2100, show even more drastic changes in precipitation patterns in the country, with values ranging between 20 to 26% under the high emissions pathway. When looking at each decade in detail, for example, between 2071-2080 the changes represent a decrease of 15-25% in rainfall, under a low emissions scenario, followed by 20-25% reduction in rainfall under a high emissions scenario. By the same token, the decade of 2081-2090 will experience reductions between 20% to 30%, with even higher depletion of rainfall under the high emissions scenario. During the last decade of the 21st century between 2091-2100, the projected scenarios reveal a decrease in rainfall ranging between 20% -35% (low emissions scenario) when compared to current observed values. At the century approaches end, the scenarios reveal reduction in precipitation that are considerably more pronounced, intense and drastic if compared to the period between 2021-2050. This represents a reduction of 300 mm a year in precipitation in the country.
- These scenarios represent a complete range of alternative futures for climate in El Salvador. Taking into account the cascading effects that may accompany the climate change scenarios, the country’s economy, society and nature, finds itself having to deal with greater risk and effective occurrence of natural disasters. Not surprisingly, as a result of current climate variability and change, in the form of higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, erratic local, regional and global climate controls, the country is already and will continue to need to manage increased social, economic and environmental pressures across vastly degraded landscapes.
The South Ahuachapán landscape
- The South-Ahuachapán area, located in the department of Ahuachapán, includes the municipalities of San Francisco Menendez, Jujutla, Guaymango and San Pedro Puxtla (Figure 9), covering an area of 591.73 Km2, with a population of 98,016 people from which 51% are women, and with the majority of the population (77%) residing in rural areas.
- The MARN estimates the South-Ahuachapán as an area of high vulnerability to climate change. Considering its environmental and social characteristics at the landscape level, this part of the country finds itself highly susceptible to the destructive effects of climate variability together with lacking of necessary resources to adequately prepare, respond and recover from natural disasters. This region, contains a significant amount of the population exposed to frequent meteorological drought, while at the same time it is one of El Salvador’s main regions for the production of staple food items (basic grains), as well as other cash crops (sugarcane, coffee).
- According to the climate change scenarios produced by the MARN, climate variability and change in the region will become more and more evident. This will be reflected through significant increases in average temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
- Tree cover accounts for 68% of its total territorial area, distributed as 33% Forest, 29% Shaded coffee and 6% shrubs. Agricultural land accounts for 26% of total area, and it is used for the production of staple grains (maize and beans). The Landscape features strategic natural assets for the country, such as El Imposible National Park, the Apaneca-Ilamatepec Biosphere Reserve, and the RAMSAR site Barra de Santiago comprising an extraordinary biological diversity of ecosystems, species and genes, and their conservation deserve special attention. The primary ecological zones are the humid subtropical forest to the south, very moist subtropical forest, and humid subtropical forest.
- The area has a complex hydrographic network. Of the 11 hydrographic basins that drain the territory, four of the most important: the rivers La Paz, Banderas, Lempa and Grande in Sonsonate are part of this area. There are 32 rivers in the Barra de Santiago Basin - and the Sub-basins of Cara Sucia and Culiapa. Among the main rivers of the Cara Sucia Sub-basin are El Sacramento, Huiscoyol, El Corozo, Cara Sucia, Mistepe, the Izcanal, Maishtapula, and the Aguachapio rivers. Between the main rivers of the Cuilapa Sub-basin are the Guayapa, Cuilapa, El Naranjo, El Rosario, Cubis, San Antonio, Tihuicha and El Negro rivers. However, a Hydro Analysis of this area carried out in 2007, showed that domestic demand represented 7.41% of total demand, against an irrigation demand of 92.59%, with signs of over-exploitation of the resource in the lower parts of the Cara Sucia Sub-watershed.
- Since 1974, the Paz River has abandoned old drainages of the El Aguacate, La Danta and Río Seco channels, causing a process of desiccation and transformation of the wetlands and marshes, with an alteration of the salinity gradients, the reduction of the freshwater flows and the closure of the mangrove swamps of Garita Palmera. This leads to a high susceptibility to flooding in the southern part of the Department. The situation will be further aggravated by the climate change impacts projected to take place in what is already degraded land. Ineffective agricultural and livestock practices have led to high levels of contamination by agrochemicals, which, together with erosion, lead to a deterioration of mangroves with sedimentation and silting of channels, with loss of mangrove hydrodynamic regulation. This situation, threatens and affects artisanal and industrial fishing and local livelihoods. The lack of opportunities leads to migration and weakening of the social fabric in an already vulnerable part of the country.
- In this region, the mangroves in the lower basin of the river belong to the mangrove ecoregion of the Pacific dry coast (Olson et al., 2001), which extend in patches along the coastal zone of Guatemala and El Salvador. The mangroves and marshes dominate the coasts of estuaries in the coastal plain. The coastal wetlands of Garita Palmera and El Botoncillo are possibly the least known and certainly the most degraded on the coast of El Salvador (MARN - AECI, 2003), and the population that inhabits these ecosystems have livelihoods intimately related to their services. The current conditions of the mangroves in the lower basin of the river are a consequence of the high rate of deforestation and the change in land use throughout the basin, as well as alterations in its hydrological regime, such as decrease of annual flow, flow seasonal shifts, and significant decrease in water budget of River Paz, causing a reduction in the productivity of ecosystems and in their capacity to provide services and benefits to local communities (further contributing to flooding, increased runoff and soil loss).
- This region is important also for aquifer recharge, specifically for the recharge of the aquifer ESA-01, localized in alluvial materials in south Ahuachapán, in the municipalities of San Francisco Menendez, Jujutla and Acajutla.
- During the last eight years, this landscape has suffered the adverse impacts of extreme hydro-meteorological events, in some years it experienced Tropical Depressions and Hurricanes, and in other years it suffered meteorological drought with significant damages to infrastructure, agriculture and crops, functioning of ecosystems, and livelihoods. The loss of coverage and inadequate agricultural practices on slopes, have caused a decrease in water regulation capacities with increased runoff, which in turn led to a severe increase in soil erosion rates in the high and middle parts of the basins, an increased risk of landslides and floods; and a decrease in infiltration capacities and aquifer recharge with a decrease in the water supply for different uses. All this has been reflected in large damages to infrastructure and crop loss.
- The pressure exerted on the forest remnants of the highlands, riparian forests, secondary forests, agroforestry systems and mangroves has also increased the region’s vulnerability to climate change. The reduction of habitat, the loss of ecological connectivity and of critical ecosystem services (i.e. water provision, climate regulation) have caused a chain of processes and negative impacts that increase the vulnerability of this area in the face of more frequent events of heavy rainfall, and prolonged periods of drought. Thus, the loss of natural vegetation cover and the poor land use practices in agriculture, are leading to a continuous decrease in surface and ground water availability, excessive runoff, and a decrease in other water regulation ecosystem services, leading to a significant increase in soil erosion rates. A recent assessment of damages to the agricultural sector in Ahuachapán, pointed out that, due to an extended drought period, the average numbers observed for the harvest of corn and beans (June/July 2015) had a reduction of 94%.
- Degrading of natural ecosystems, with wide spread effects at the landscape level (including depletion of riparian forests and grasslands) threatens the provision of a wide range of ecosystem services to local communities in the South Ahuachapán. Long and short-term effects of degradation of these ecosystems include:
- increased soil erosion as a result of reduced vegetation cover;
- reduced infiltration of water in degraded watersheds and catchment areas, thereby resulting in reduced recharge of groundwater and an increased incidence of flooding;
- Interventions in the are thus need to focus on helping the landscape to adapt and build resilience to the impacts of climate change, through the protection of the ecosystems and the rehabilitation and conservation of the mosaic of interdependent land uses thus enhancing the landscape’s capacity to manage extreme hydro-meteorological events as well as increased projected temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns. The goods and services generated by healthy or under restoration landscapes, have the potential to mitigate these threats by providing multiple benefits to local communities in the region of South-Ahuachapán, such as the provision of natural resources (food and water) and regulatory functions, including flood mitigation, water filtration and waste decomposition.
Landscape approach to build resilience and adapt to climate change
- In 2012, El Salvador developed the National Environmental Policy to help regulate, manage, protect the country’s natural resources, and reverse environmental degradation, while reducing the country’s vulnerability to climate change, which feeds directly into the country’s plans on long-term economic growth and social progress outcomes. A key instrument of the National Environmental Policy is the National Program for the Restoration of Ecosystems and Landscapes (PREP), which is organized in three strategic areas: 1) Restoration, reforestation and inclusive conservation of critical ecosystems such as gallery forests, water recharge areas, slopes, mangroves and other forest ecosystems; 2) The restoration of degraded soils, through the forestation of agricultural systems, the adoption of resilient agroforestry systems and the development of sustainable and climate-resilient and biodiversity-friendly agriculture; 3) Synergistic development of physical infrastructure and natural infrastructure. Forest landscape restoration is a key part of the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution, and the main strategy to contribute to climate change adaptation, by increasing productivity of landscapes, enhancing the resilience of forest ecosystems, landscapes, agroecosystems, watersheds, and forest‐dependent communities.
- The PREP comprises immediate and strategic activities, such as the conservation of forest remnants; the restoration of forest ecosystems and agroecosystems, recovering tree coverage in critical sites, working to rehabilitate the landscape; and the maintenance and increase of tree cover in critical areas, particularly in high altitude agroecosystems, and at the watershed level (to control water supply and flow, reducing runoff, landslides and floods). The application of techniques to reduce the speed of the water flow and to increase the capacity of the water retention in the upper sections of the basins and the high zones of the mountain ranges and the protection of the plant cover, have the potential to reduce erosion and the transport of sediment as well as floods. Consequently, it enables to reduce risks associated to extreme hydro-meteorological events. Furthermore, it is expected that the reforestation of the agricultural areas will improve the soil with an increase in organic matter and moisture retention, and therefore, increasing the resistance during water shortage and drought.
Identification of priority sites for EBA through restoration in South Ahuachapán
- Information from the PREP was used o update National Land Use Map, allowing for the identification of key the restoration sites of the country based on the following six criteria: soil conservation and food production; biodiversity and wildlife conservation; protection of ground water and adaptation to drought; adaptation to extreme events and protection against floods and storms; firewood supply and climate regulation.
- A particular focus was provided to key agroecosystems sites (these account for 60% of the national territory) with the potential land use/cover transitions for restoration also being identified taking into account the different current uses of the soil to allow the recovery of prized ecosystems, through the restoration of their relevant environmental goods and services for adaptation. The potential areas for each transition type comprise a total of 1,001,405 hectares comprising eleven proposed transitions pointing to the high potential for restoration areas in South Ahuachapán.
- The analysis by MARN has allowed the project to identify the municipality of San Francisco Menendez located in the South Landscape of Ahuachapán, as the target intervention area for restoration investments. The municipality has a territory of 226.13 km2 and a total population of 42,062 of which 30,211 reside in rural areas. The identification of the Municipality of San Francisco Menendez as the area of intervention, was based on an exhaustive analysis of available time series of satellite remote sensing data, together with data and information collected by MARN in-situ.
- To further characterize the imbalances observed in the region, coming as consequence of intense rainfall and longer dry periods, the prioritization exercise used data from the Monthly Climate and Climatic Water Balance for Global Terrestrial Surfaces Dataset (TerraClimate) to better understand the runoff patterns in San Francisco Menendez. The analysis revealed an upward trend in surface runoff in San Francisco Menendez, starting in 2006 and progressing steadily, affecting negatively agricultural activities and exacerbating the already damaging effects of extended periods of drought, scarce and localized rainfall patterns in the intervention area. The data and analysis revealed that the lower Rio Paz presents a remarkably consistent pattern of low precipitation and high temperatures over time. Such characteristics have been followed by an increase in the number of extreme whether events (such as heavy rainfall and droughts), leading to below average soil moisture, increased surface runoff, and soil loss. This has been pointed out by an increasing number of recent reports by MARN and international agencies such as USAID, FAO, GIZ, which have identified the Municipality of San Francisco Menendez (entirely located in the Central America Dry Corridor) as extremely susceptible to the Effects of CC. The impacts pointed out by MARN and international organizations working in the area, have been immediately felt in the form of changes in water flow patterns (in the Lower Rio Paz), higher than normal temperatures, erratic rainfall, and low fresh water input into the ocean. This has created an imbalance that will only be exacerbated by CC, affecting agriculture, the natural environment, as well as local livelihoods in the project intervention areas.
- In San Francisco Menendez, the land under exploitation is dominated by cultivation of crops (46%), followed by seasonal grasslands (30%) and permanent grasslands (15%). The local development plan for the municipality has identified 4,569 Ha of critical ecosystems for restoration by 2030 of which 1,569Ha are agroforestry systems, 2,000 Ha tropical forests and 1,000 Ha being mangrove systems. According to the 2007 Census in the agriculture and livestock sector, the land under exploitation is mainly owned by producers (75%) while 18% of land is leased (Figure 13). There are 80 cooperatives of small producers present in San Francisco Menendez, from those 16 are women led cooperatives.
- San Francisco Menendez municipality is part of the broader South Ahuachapán landscape that includes the municipalities of Jujutla, Guayamango and San Pedro Puxtla. These municipalities are administratively grouped together through the Association of Municipalities of Microregión Sur with the objective of establishing synergies for their development and for environmental management through concerted actions. Actions along these municipalities is also strategic as these also share access to the same aquifers (Figure 12) thus linking them, at a landscape, administrative and hydrological level. Population for this larger region is 98,016 (49,899 women) of which 75,515 people reside in rural areas.
 D. L. Hartmann, a. M. G. K. Tank, and M. Rusticucci, “IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Climatie Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis,” Ipcc AR5, no. January 2014 (2013): 31–39, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
 IPCC, “Climate Change, Adaptation, and Vulnerability,” Organization & Environment 24, no. March (2014): 1–44, https://doi.org/http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/IPCC_WG2AR5_SPM_A....
 (Cai et al., 2015; Harger, 1995; Neelin et al., 1998; Takahashi et al., 2011; Torrence and Webster, 1999; Wolter and Timlin, 2011)
 Ministry of Economy; General Directorate of Statistics and Census –DIGESTyC; El Salvador: 2014; Estimates and Trends of Municipal Population 2005-2025
 STPP and MINEC-DIGESTYC (2015). Multidimensional Measurement of poverty. El Salvador. San Salvador: Technical and Planning Secretariat of the Presidency and the Ministry of Economy, through the General Directorate of Statistics and Census.
Compound Poverty: Takes into account the essential areas for human development and well-being. A total of twenty indicators around five essential well-being dimensions: a) education; b) housing conditions; c) work and social security; d) health, basic services and food security; and e) quality of the habitat.
 STPP & MINEC-DIGESTYC, “Medición Multidimensional de La Pobreza. El Salvador.,” San Salvador: Secretaría Técnica y de Planificación de La Presidencia y Ministerio de Economía, a Través de La Dirección General de Estadística y Censos., 2015.
 Minerva Campos et al., “Estrategias de Adaptación Al Cambio Climático En Dos Comunidades Rurales de México y El Salvador,” Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Two Rural Communities in Mexico and El Salvador, no. 61 (2013): 329–49, http://www.boletinage.com/61/16-CAMPOS.pdf.
 For example, accumulated rainfall in the southeast area of the country was less than 10 mm, representing a 95% deficit from average rainfall
 Almanaque 262. State of human development in the municipalities of El Salvador, 2009.
 Defined as the non-linear land use change process associated with societal and biophysical system changes.
 The analysis was conducted using Google Earth Engine, allowing the production of wall-to-wall spatially explicit information at multiple spatial scales. The analysis included Climate models generated by both long-term climate predictions and historical interpolations of surface variables, including historical reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR, gridded meteorological datasets such as the NLDAS-2, and GridMET, and climate model outputs like the University of Idaho MACAv2-METDATA and the NASA Earth Exchange’s Downscaled Climate Projections. The prioritization also included the analysis of spatially-explicit land surface variables over time, such as: Evapotranspiration/Latent Heat Flux product (8-day composite product produced at 500 meter pixel resolution), providing information on the hydrologic cycle, which has direct and significant influence on agriculture cycles in the region, as well as the amount of solar radiation, atmospheric vapor pressure, temperature, wind, and soil moisture available. The prioritization also included analysis of salinity anomalies using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, Water Temperature and Salinity (HYCOM) (Revealing that salinity has not been decreasing as result of local meteorological processes over the past several years). The analysis also included Long-Term drough Severity estimations using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which has been effective in effective in determining long-term drought in the intervention area. The PDSI data and analysis considers surface air temperature and a physical water balance models, taking into account the observed effects of increasingly warm temperatures, and high evapotranspiration, leading to systemic imbalances affecting local hydrological cycles (refer back to Figure 13).
 This dataset and analysis considers runoff as the excess of liquid water supply (precipitation) used by monthly Evapotranspiration and soil moisture recharge and is derived using a one-dimensional soil water balance model and it correlates well to measured streamflow from a number of watersheds globally.
Component 1. Ecosystem-based adaptation for enhanced resilience at a territorial level
Component 2. Alternative and adapted livelihoods identified and made viable for resilient livelihoods
Component 3. Regional Climate and Hydrological Monitoring for Enhanced Adaptation Planning
Component 4. Strengthening of inter-institutional coordination and local governance for landscape management in the face of climate variability and change
Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) for Resilient Natural Resources and Agro-Pastoral Communities in the Ferlo Biosphere Reserve and Plateau of Thies in Senegal
The proposed “Ecosystem-based adaptation for resilient natural resources and agro-pastoral communities in the Ferlo Biosphere Reserve and Plateau of Thies” project supports the conservation, sustainable management and restoration of the forests and savanna grassland ecosystems in the Ferlo Biosphere Reserve and Plateau of Thies in Senegal. Ecosystem-based adaptation approaches will sustainably increase the resilience of agropastoral populations in the project areas, by providing climate-resilient green infrastructure that enhances soil water storage, fodder availability and water for livestock; and developing alternative livelihoods which value is derived from the conservation and maintenance of these local forest and savannah ecosystems (e.g. timber and non-timber forest products, native climate-adapted vegetable gardens and eco-tourism).
The project will reach a total of 310,000 direct beneficiaries (half of whom are women), with a focus on land managers, local authorities, local elected officials, agropastoralists, farmers, local entreprenuers and small and medium enterprises, local organizations and NGOs. The project will support the direct restoration of forest and rangelands over 5,000 ha to ensure these natural landscapes and productive areas are made more resilient to the expected increasing adverse impacts of climate change. An additional 245,000 ha of land in the Wildlife Reserve of Ferlo Nord and the Wildlife Reserve of Ferlo Sud, and the protected Forest of Thies will be put under improved sustainable management to maintain adaptive ecosystem services in the context of climate change.
In addition, introduced climate-resilient green infrastructure (i.e. well-managed forests, natural earth berms, weirs, basins) will provide physical barriers against climate change-induced increased erosion and extreme weather events, particularly flooding. The Ferlo Biosphere Reserve is located in the area of Senegal where the Great Green Wall (a pan-African initiative to plant a wall of trees from Dakar to Djibouti as a tool to combat desertification) is being implemented. The project is currently in the PIF stage.
Impacts of climate change
The Republic of Senegal (hereafter Senegal) is a coastal Least Developed Country (LDC) in West Africa, where agriculture accounts for more than 70% of the workforce. Agropastoral communities are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to their dependence on natural resources for food and livelihoods. The extreme poverty rate in Senegal is reported at 35.7% (2015 data), and multi-dimensional poverty at 46.7% (2013 data) and is concentrated in the Northern dry desert landscapes used by pastoralists. While its Human Development Index (HDI) value has shown a favourable trend – increasing from 0.367 in 1990 to 0.514 in 2019, Senegal currently still ranks low at 166th among 189 countries.
The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, in particular droughts, heavy rains, periods of high or low temperatures has been observed and is predicted to increase due to climate change. A current rise in temperatures by +1°C has been recorded, with forecasts for 2020-2029 of 1 to 1.5°C and 3 to 4.5°C for 2090-2099, which would generate situations of severe thermal stress that could seriously jeopardize plant (increased evapotranspiration) and animal productivity. These climate changes are translated into the increasing occurrence of dry years (in 2002, 2007, 2011 and 2014), further exacerbated by the increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperature.
In parallel, maladaptive practices are adopted by agropastoral communities and other natural resource users (such as overgrazing and deforestation), in particular as was initiated following the extreme adverse impacts of the Sahelian droughts of the 70s and 80s on traditional livelihoods. These practices tend to exacerbate the impacts of climate change, further damaging the ecosystems they depend on, and having far reaching consequences for other stakeholders in both urban and rural settings. The interrelation of climate and anthropogenic impacts are reflected by the widespread degradation with 64% of degraded arable land, of which 74% results from erosion and the rest from salinization. The annual cost of land degradation in Senegal is estimated at USD $ 996 million, including deterioration in food availability, and reduction of soil fertility, carbon sequestration capacity, wood production, and groundwater recharge. Anecdotally, social conflict between migrant herders and sedentary farmers is occurring as both expand their use areas to compensate for climate impacts that considerably aggravate the main drivers of degradation and loss of productive land.
The climate change-induced increased rainfall variability, translated into more frequent dry years and intense rainfalls, combined with anthropogenic factors (i.e. forest clearing around the city, bush fires and overgrazing, rapidly growing urbanization, extensive mining) are leading to land degradation, loss of biological diversity, reduction of agricultural production areas, loss of ecological breeding sites (many animal species have seen their habitats disrupted) as well as social instability. In turn, these climate and anthropogenic impacts are reducing the adaptive services of critical ecosystems, such as water supply and quality regulation or the moderation of extreme climate events (more details on the project targeted areas are available below).
In addition, COVID-19 severely impacted most vulnerable people and communities, that are already under stress as a result of the climate crisis and global biodiversity losses. Since March 2020, the local governments in Senegal have banned large markets (loumas) selling livestock, cutting off agropastoralists’ key source of income. In addition to the direct impact of COVID-19 on Senegal’s economy in terms of illness and deaths (reportedly 13,655 and 284 as of September 1st, 2020) and government-imposed restrictions, Senegal is also dependent on remittances from abroad and is therefore exposed to worldwide job losses and a global recession. In 2019, Senegal received an estimated US$2.52 billion in remittances, representing 10% of the country’s GDP. These are likely to shrink dramatically in the short term and highlights the vulnerability of the country to future global emergencies. Additionally, land mismanagement, habitat loss, overexploitation of wildlife, and human-induced climate change have created pathways for infectious diseases to transmit from wildlife to humans.
In this context, the Government of Senegal, through the Agence Sénégalaise de la Reforestation et de la Grande Muraille Verte (ASRGM), identified two project sites (the Ferlo Biosphere Reserve (FBR) in the North and Thies in the East of the country) considered a priority in terms of climate vulnerability, environmental degradation and high socio-economic importance, as well as the opportunities to address these vulnerabilities through ecosystem restoration and regeneration. In addition, the implementation of EbA practices in both landscapes (urban and rural) will provide lessons learned and best practices to be replicated at a larger scale and introduced into NAP priorities. Indeed, the FBR is a rural, biodiverse zone, and Thies is in and around a large urban population center. This will enable the project to build a strong knowledge base for future scale-up of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) across both urban and rural landscapes.
The Ferlo Biosphere Reserve (FBR)
The FBR was selected to represent the rural landscape zone in this project, as identified as a priority by the Government of Senegal, due to the climate change vulnerability of its communities, its economically important livestock industry and its high biodiversity and due to its location within the Great Green Wall corridor.
The FBR is located in Northern Senegal and covers an area of 2,058,216 ha, split into three zones of which (i) 242,564 ha is wildlife reserve for conservation and protection of the biodiversity of endemic and threatened species, (ii) 1,156,633 ha is a buffer zone, with ecologically important habitats and (iii) the remainder are transition or cooperation zones, where natural resources can be harvested and used towards sustainable development, following a set of regulations. It is home to 120 herbaceous species in 69 genera in 23 families; 51 woody species in 35 genera in 19 families; 37 animal species and a large bird population. The FBR was officially recognized by UNESCO in 2012, following a decade of work by UNDP, IUCN and other key stakeholders to establish the reserve. The FBR is located in the area of Senegal where the Great Green Wall (a pan-African initiative to plant a wall of trees from Dakar to Djibouti as a tool to combat desertification) is being implemented.. In addition to its very rich biodiversity, the wider Ferlo Basin is of strategic importance in Senegal, producing 42% of the cattle supplying Dakar; within the FBR 90% of the 60,000 inhabitants are involved in pastoralism. The FBR is central to the mobility strategies of pastoralists in their search for fodder resources for their herds. Their pastoral activity is characterized by a large herd, large forage resources and good milk production during the winter. Subsistence farming is the second most important activity, and generally involves rain-fed household agriculture and livestock farming, with little diversification. The harvest of timber and non-timber resources is also important for the local rural economy.
The FBR is already subject to an ongoing process of desertification caused by more frequent climate change-induced rainfall deficient years. Over the period 1960-2018, average annual rainfall was only 411 mm in Linguère and 383 mm in Matam, and while average rainfall has increased since the late 1990s compared to the previous decades, data shows significant variability with more frequent dry years.
Studies have shown fodder availability for livestock (biomass) is directly correlated with rainfall in the Sahel, and data from the 2005-2015 period shows an incremental decline in biomass production in the Ferlo region. Bush fires (and therefore decreased fodder availability) have exacerbated the impact of biomass loss, which predominately occur in Ferlo-South. Furthermore, some herbaceous and woody species with high forage value for livestock are threatened by maladaptive practices including deforestation and competition over land uses that hinders the mobility (and therefore resilience) of herds: between 1965 and 2019 increase in land use were +112% for housing and +47% agriculture. Rainfall variation also has a direct effect on milk production. For example, the volumes of milk collected by Laiterie du Berger (LDB) dropped by 33% in 2014, following another exceptionally rainfall deficient year.
The City of Thies and surrounding area
The City of Thies was selected to represent the urban landscape zone in this project, providing a parallel perspective on EbA next to the rural zone of FBR. It was identified as a priority by the Government of Senegal due to the climate change vulnerability of its large urban population, in particular to the severe impacts of flooding, the link between exacerbation of the climate impacts and the pastoral activities outside the city, and the opportunity that EbA offers to address observed and forecasted climate impacts.).
The City of Thies is located in the Region of Thies, in the Western part of the country, approximately 70 km east of Dakar. It is Senegal’s third largest city and oversees seven municipalities (Kayar, Khombole, Pout, Fandene, Mont Rolland, Notto-Diobass and Keur Moussa) with an estimated population of 496,740 inhabitants (in 2020).
Geographically, the city’s dominant feature is the Plateau of Thies, running across its Western edge with an elevation of approximately 130 m. The Plateau of Thies extends beyond the boundaries of the city, and straddles the administrative regions of Thies and Dakar, covering an area of more than 4,000 km². It has an important ecosystem function in terms of water supply, as many rivers and wetlands of importance have their source on the Plateau, including the Somone River, Lake Tanma, the Fandene Valley, the Diobass Valley, and much of the water consumed in and around Dakar comes from the Plateau. Once an extensive green ecosystem, it is now degraded, though still offers many opportunities in agriculture, pasture, forestry and mining activities.
The problem this LDCF project seeks to address is the increasing vulnerability of the rural populations in the FBR, and in the area of influence around the City of Thies (hereafter referred to as “Thies”), to the increasing climate variability and the associated risks of annual droughts and floods caused by climate change. More specifically, the FBR population includes rural agropastoralists, whose livelihoods are particularly vulnerable to climate change, due to their dependence on reliable rainfalls for fodder supply and rainfed agriculture. In contrast, the urban population of the City of Thies is heavily impacted by flooding, which disrupts transportation and local commerce. Additionally, the population under the wider area of influence of the City of Thies includes agropastoralists and other natural resources users, which are vulnerable to the changes in rainfall patterns, and whose maladaptive practices may directly impact the flooding in the city. The vulnerabilities of these livelihoods have been significantly exacerbated by the degrading of the ecosystems as a result of climate change and human-induced impacts. In particular, the loss of forest cover to respond to changes in land use have had adverse consequences on the capacity of the ecosystem to provide services such as rainwater supply and quality regulations as well as the moderation of extreme events, critical to address the climate-induced increased occurence of dry years and heavy rainfalls. Urgent adaptive practices, (i.e. forest clearing for agriculture or fuelwood production, use of chemicals, bushfires, overgrazing etc.) adopted by local communities were observed to have further threatened these ecosystems, showcasing a vicious cycle of climate vulnerability.
An underlying root cause of maladaptive practices is poverty (up to 45% of inhabitants in some areas of the FBR) that prevents targeted communities to implement longer-term and more protective responses to climate shocks and changes. In addition, current development interventions from the government and technical and financial partners, often fail to associate the introduced adaptive practices to improved livelihoods and revenues, reinforcing the disconnect between sustainable adaptive practices and livelihood enhancement.
The preferred solution is the adoption of an EbA approach through conservation, sustainable management and restoration of the forests and savanna grassland ecosystems in the FBR and in Thies. EbA will sustainably increase the resilience of agropastoral populations in the project areas, by (i) providing climate-resilient green infrastructure that enhances soil water storage, fodder availability and water for livestock; and (ii) developing alternative livelihoods which value is derived from the conservation and maintenance of these local forest and savannah ecosystems (e.g. timber and non-timber forest products, native climate-adapted vegetable gardens, eco-tourism). In addition, introduced climate-resilient green infrastructure (i.e. well-managed forests, natural earth berms, weirs, basins) will provide physical barriers against climate change-induced increased erosion and extreme weather events, particularly flooding.
However, the adoption of an EbA strategy in the FBR and Thies has been hindered due to the following barriers:
· Barrier#1: Data on the economic value of functional ecosystems and natural resources are limited and regional public sector institutions do not have sufficient technical capacity to implement EbA interventions. Empirical knowledge and experience about the environmental and economic benefits of an EbA is not available to support the decision-making at the regional and local level and the funds allocated to the management of these resources in national budgets and the private sector are insufficient to enable large-scale investment in an EbA program;
· Barrier#2: Past interventions in the project areas adopted a siloed approach that did not link restoration and conservation activities with economic incentives for local populations. While the Government of Senegal, with the support of technical and financial partners, implemented restoration and conservation activities over the last three decades (including managed reforestation, establishing no-go areas etc.), there was a lack of coordination between actors and stakeholders. Restoration and conversion activities were not associated with evident economic value to those depending on the resource area, therefore the activities were not offering clear incentives for their sustainable maintenance. In addition, small producers and other users of natural resources have a limited knowledge of the climate change drivers/threats and the benefits of restoration and conservation;
· Barrier#3: The communities have limited financial resources which they use to respond to immediate climate threats (floods and droughts) and are unwilling or unable to take financial risks to invest in or adopt alternative resilient practices. Adoption of new EbA strategies are not an investment priority for agropastoralists, small producers and other users of natural resources. They also lack access to financial services such as insurance, which could help address the risk that an extreme climate event can result in the loss of the investment;
· Barrier#4: Lack of an enabling environment for mobilizing private sector investment in EbA interventions, projects and programs for resilient natural assets. There has been limited investment from international and national private sector in natural resources-based enterprises, as there has not been a systematic analysis of the EbA opportunities and subsequently little promotion by competent national institutions.
The funded LDCF project will complement the existing baseline by promoting long term planning on climate changes and facilitating budgeting and establishment of innovative financing mechanisms to support climate change governance at communes’ levels
The alternative scenario is that the main barriers to adoption of EbA in the FBR and Thies will be addressed, leading to a shift from unsustainable natural resource management practices and climate-vulnerable livelihoods to a sustainable, green economy based on an EbA approach with sound resource management. This will lead to increased resilience of livelihoods for agropastoralists and reduced flooding in the City of Thies.
This will be achieved by anchoring livelihoods in the maintenance of ecosystem services through restoration and conservation activities in the FBR and Thies. This EbA approach – and the delivery of associated goods and services – responds to the increasing climate variability and associated risks of droughts and floods caused by climate change. EbA is increasingly recognized as a highly cost-effective, low-risk approach to climate change adaptation that builds the resilience of communities and ecosystems in the long term.
To achieve these objectives, the project will support the development and implementation of local EbA strategies in the two project zones through (i) the capacity building and strategy development for the management, governance and development of forests and pastures; (ii) the restoration of arid and semi-arid lands and degraded ecosystems; (iii) the development and market access of economically viable Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) based on the sound use of natural resources and (iv) dissemination of results, aiming to scale-up the adoption of EbA in Senegal.
*References available in project documents.
Component 1: Developing regional and local governance for climate resilience through EbA
Embedding EbA approaches in the regional and local governance creates an enabling environment that will help secure climate resilient-livelihoods in the FBR and Thies. This requires significant capacity building of key stakeholders to understand the economic value of functional ecosystems and natural resources and strengthening of institutional and regulatory frameworks. While EbA has been recognized as a priority for adaptation interventions in Senegal, limited understanding of the concept and opportunities for local application has resulted in a very restricted adoption of these approaches. At the same time, the accelerating and uncontrolled degradation of critical ecosystems in Thies and the FBR is leading to an exponential loss of the adaptive benefits of these ecosystems. Biodiverse ecosystems provide future adaptive capacity and economic resilience, however the maintenance and restoration of ecosystems has not been embedded in the regional and local strategies designed to adapt to the impacts of climate change (i.e. more intense and less regular rainfalls, increased temperatures or more frequent dry years) which ultimately leads to the increasing climate vulnerability of the communities. Over the recent years, a number of initiatives were developed to introduce climate change concerns into policies and regulatory frameworks and protective measures for critical ecosystems were designed and enforced, but links between improved adaptation and healthy ecosystems failed to be established or systematized in the FBR and Thies.
By introducing EbA concerns into regional and local governance priorities, as informed by the assessments to be conducted under this component, and the lessons learned from outcome 2, the approach under Component 1 will reduce the impacts of climate change-induced heavy rainfalls and dry years exacerbated by land degradation, and as such contribute to the project objective. The activities under this component will also be informed by the results of ongoing interventions such as the Great Green Wall initiative, and lessons learned from the recently closed GEG-LDCF project “Strengthening land & ecosystem management under conditions of climate change in the Niayes and Casamance regions (PRGTE)” as well as the studies supported through the GEF-LDCF ‘Senegal National Action Plan’ project.
An assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the FBR and the Plateau of Thies governing bodies (output 1.1.1) – including stakeholders in Silvipastoral Reserves and Pastoral Units (UPs), forests, Wildlife Reserves and Community Natural Reserves (RNCs) – will be conducted to better understand the barriers to the introduction of climate change adaptation in rural and urban settings, in particular EbA practices, into planning and budgeting. As part of the PPG stage, more in-depth analysis of the gaps, root causes and opportunities will be undertaken to guide the assessment. In addition, existing local committees will be reinvigorated, strengthened and where appropriate re-structured to enable climate-resilient governance and participatory consultation processes for better decision-making (output 1.1.2).
Based on the assessments conducted under output 1.1.1, training sessions will be organized (output 1.1.3), targeting local land-management bodies and key stakeholders (land managers, local authorities, local elected officials, pastoralists, farmers, local organizations and NGOs) in the two project areas, including and in coordination with those involved in the five baseline projects. The training will focus on building an in-depth understanding of the existing and potential climate change adaptive capacity provided by biodiversity and ecosystem services in the project zones, the potential economic value of climate-resilient livelihoods linked to these ecosystem services, as well as the importance of integrating community and cultural buy-in to the development of green infrastructure and alternative livelihoods.
A multi-stakeholder committee of technical experts will be set up (output 1.1.4) , including experts from various institutions and national and international networks to advise and support local land management organisations in mainstreaming the EbA approach into local adaptation policies and strategies, as well as into the baseline projects. It will also support the development of key indicators for the assessment of climate vulnerabilities at local level and will strengthen local capacities to implement standardized monitoring protocols. Support for observation and dissemination of climate data will enable science-based management decisions (output 1.1.5). This will include the procurement of equipment and measuring instruments to strengthen the early warning system of the Agence Nationale de l'Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (ANACIM) in the target project areas.
Based on the different assessments and capacity building, and following a participatory approach, land use and management plans will be reviewed and updated to incorporate EbA approaches (output 1.1.6). More specifically, the EbA actions will be based on (i) extensive consultations with stakeholders at the regional and local levels, (ii) climate change vulnerability assessments of the biodiversity, ecosystems and local communities (socio-economic vulnerability) including the surrounding gazetted forests, as well as green spaces within the city, (iii) climate data (i.e. rainfall, temperature and other weather data) made available to stakeholders, using data provided by national institutions such as ANACIM and (iv) the Market Analysis and Development (MA&D) framework results set out in Component 3. These local resilience strategies will include activities to build the resilience of livelihoods, as linked to the ecosystem services provided through restoration and conservation of the ecosystems and biodiversity. These will be developed, adopted and implemented with the continuous engagement of local communities in the sustainable management of natural resources.
These activities above all involve a degree of stakeholder engagement and meetings. If the COVID-19 pandemic is still impacting project activities at the time of execution, then alternatives to in-person meetings will be explored, including introduction of technology as well as an up-front focus on capacity building of local leadership.
Outcome 1.1 Stakeholders' capacities in planning and implementing EbA to maintain and/or create climate-resilient natural capital are strengthened.
Output 1.1.1. Functional analysis of the key institutions to formulate and enforce EbA policies conducted;
Output 1.1.2. The participatory governance bodies of the FBR and the Plateau of Thies are restructured/revitalized and strengthened for better coordination of decision-making in response to climate change risks;
Output 1.1.3. Stakeholder training programs are conducted to instill the skills and knowledge for climate-resilient decision-making;
Output 1.1.4. A technical expert committee is set up to advise on the mainstreaming of EbA into local land management strategies;
Output 1.1.5. The EWS under the ANACIM is equipped to strengthen the observation and dissemination of climate data in the project areas
Output 1.1.6. Land use and management plans are reviewed and updated on the basis of participatory consultations to mainstream the EbA approach within regional and local regulations, policies and systems of decision-making
Component 2: Restoration and conservation management to increase resilience of natural assets and ecosystem services
By implementing restoration and conservation in the FBR and Thies, the climate resilience of natural assets and ecosystem services will be ensured. This component will be implemented in coordination with the creation of the enabling environment under component 1, to provide empirical knowledge, drawn from experience in the project’s targeted restoration natural ecosystems and productive areas. Experience under component 2 will inform and strengthen land use and management plans as well as the training programmes for local and regional stakeholders. This accumulated knowledge will respond to barrier #1, which identified a lack of data on the economic value of functional ecosystems and natural resources. In turn, Component 1 is expected to facilitate the replication of practices beyond the specific project sites and ensure the monitoring and advisory capacity of key stakeholders, avoiding the reintroduction or continuation of malpractices.
Currently EbA is quite nascent in Senegal, with some projects supporting the restoration of forests, watersheds, etc. as well as other practices associated with EbA. However, these initiatives rarely refer to EbA, and focus more on the broader protective benefits of these interventions, consequently failing to integrate climate change adaptation aspects. This is the case for the “Great Green Wall” initiative, which is led by ASRGM and includes the FBR: it aims to strengthen the capacities of local communities to help boost investments in land restoration and created employment opportunities or ‘green’ jobs but does not specifically address ecosystem based adaptation approaches. Similarly, the project “Management of the ecosystems of the Plateau of Thies” (which will end in 2021) has focused on water management and erosion, without linking to EbA or adapted livelihoods. While in the short-term the benefits appear to be comparable, the lack of understanding of the climate-change driven impacts on livelihoods and natural landscapes can be problematic and restrictive in the longer term. Therefore, as the project implements EbA practices, an emphasis on climate change awareness needs to be made.
This component will support the direct restoration of forest and rangelands over 5,000 ha to ensure these natural landscapes and productive areas are made more resilient to the expected increasing adverse impacts of climate change. An additional 245,000 ha of land in the Wildlife Reserve of Ferlo Nord and the Wildlife Reserve of Ferlo Sud, and the protected Forest of Thies will be put under improved sustainable management to maintain adaptive ecosystem services in the context of climate change. This will include (i) reforestation, re-vegetation and assisted natural regeneration (ANR) of arid and semi-arid lands and degraded ecosystems with climate resilient plant species that provide goods for consumption and/or marketing; (ii) restoration of soil and vegetation cover, to preserve adaptive ecosystem services and (iii) sustainable land management measures engaging local communities, including with the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties, demarcating multi-stage production plots by defensive quickset hedges, the use of organic fertilizers, sustainable NTFP harvesting practices, methods for improved processing, packaging, storage and marketing practices for transformed products. The role of IUCN, as both a GEF agency for this project and an expert in conservation, will be key to ensure social or environmental safeguards risks are controlled and are not triggered during the implementation of restoration activities, especially in the FBR. In addition, by concentrating restoration activities only in the “transition zone” of the FBR, instead of the “conservation areas” or the “buffer areas”, safeguards risks will be minimized. The restoration activities in the FBR will also directly contribute to the GGWI, as it is located in the same zone and both are led by ASRGM.
Restoration and conservation activities will take into consideration the potential for improved access to water resources by pastoralists as a result of forest and rangeland restoration, taking into account extreme weather events and rainfall variability. This is expected to include installation of infrastructure using essentially natural materials such as for bunds, embankments, weirs, earth dams and other water management structures (output 2.1.3).
Improved access to water resources (output 2.1.2) will form a key part of the EbA strategy in both project areas as it is expected to reduce the reliance of farmers on increasingly unreliable rainfalls as a result of climate change. Indeed, during the droughts in the 70s and 80s in Senegal, poor and unreliable access to water was observed to lead to increased deforestation to compensate for the reduced productivity of existing croplands. Safe access to water is therefore critical for the protection of forests and other highly productive ecosystems and will be included in the assessments and strategies formulated in Component 1.
An anti-erosion scheme for the area of the Plateau of Thies that affects the City of Thies will be developed and implemented (output 2.1.4). This includes restoring the surrounding native forest ecosystems, as well as other water management measures to reduce erosion, gullying and flooding exacerbated by rainfall variability and extreme weather events as a result of climate change, and in turn reduce the vulnerability of the population in the city of Thies.
Finally, this component will support the restoration of a green belt by replanting khaya senegalensis and other endemic trees alongside roads and in public green spaces (output 2.1.5.) for drainage control and the reduction in hydrological disaster risks, thus reducing flooding from extreme weather events in parts of the City of Thies, and decreasing the population’s vulnerability to these climate change impacts. In particular, this output could be conducted in partnership with the phase 2 of the “Program for the Modernization of Cities (PROMOVILLES)” that intends to support the construction of roads across Senegal, including around Thies, to improve the connectivity to poorly connected areas.
In the context of COVID-19, experience to date of other restoration and planting programmes which took place during the first stages of the pandemic have shown that it is still reasonable to undertake these: research suggests that the risk of infection is lower outside, and when measures such as mask-wearing and hand-washing take place. Therefore, it is expected that these activities could still be implemented, though may be delayed in the case of a full lockdown or if significant numbers of workers become ill.
Outcome 2.1 Agropastoralists' livelihoods, natural ecosystems and productive landscapes in project sites are more resilient to climate change through the adoption of EbA practices.
Output 2.1.1. Degraded agropastoral rangelands (including pastoral routes) are regenerated
Output 2.1.2. Degraded FBR agropastoral ecosystems are restored using nature-based solutions;
Output 2.1.3. Green infrastructure (i.e. bunds, embankments, weirs, earth dams) will be installed to sustainably improve access to water resources for local producers
Output 2.1.4. EbA measures are implemented on the Plateau of Thies to reduce flooding in the city of Thies.
Output 2.1.5. A programme to restore a climate-resilient green belt is implemented in the commune of Thies
Component 3: Investment in climate-resilient value chains
Through the creation and strengthening of viable SMEs that rely on biodiversity and ecosystem services, this component seeks to establish climate-resilient value chains. Currently, local communities do not have the resources to move away from their traditional livelihoods to adopt more climate resilient and protective EbA practices (barrier#3). In addition, as noted above, there is limited documented and disseminated EbA practices in the project areas and in Senegal more broadly. This lack of evidence limits the incentives for local populations to invest in restoration and conservation activities in order to improve their livelihoods in the long-term (barrier#2). This component, together with the governance incentives established under component 1 (policies, support from existing structures) and the lessons learned capitalized and disseminated under component 4, will promote private sector investment in relevant value chains (outcome 3.1) and support local entrepreneurs and SMEs to produce goods and services based on the sustainable use of natural resources (outcome 3.2).
More specifically, target value chains will include agricultural production (field crops, market gardening, arboriculture, fodder crops), forestry (timber and non-timber forestry products), and other economic activities as will be further detailed out during the feasibility studies of the PPG phase. At this point, significant potential has been identified for the development of forest value chains using species such as: Balanites aegyptiaca, Acacia Senegal, Adansonia digitata, Ziziphus mauritiana and Boscia senegalensis (ndiandam). By including the dual focus on private sector investment and support for SME development, this component will ensure market demand and economic viability for these climate-resilient value chains is embedded in the approach. This component will also build on experiences and lessons learned from multiple ongoing initiatives such as “The Agricultural Development and Rural Entrepreneurship Support Program” and the second phase of the “The Emergency Community Development Program (PUDC)”. There will be ongoing coordination with the GEF-LDCF project led by UNDP “Promoting innovative finance and community-based adaptation in communes surrounding community natural reserves (PFNAC)”, intervening in the Ferlo, which is detailed below in output 3.2.3.
Under this component, and to respond to the gaps and contribute to the initiatives presented above, a private sector platform will be set up to better coordinate value-chain activities promoting EbA (output 3.1.1), with the objective of identifying existing and new business opportunities and facilitating market linkages for nature-based products that provide adaptive benefits. Following the MA&D framework, opportunities will be identified by (i) assessing the existing situation, (ii) identifying products, markets and means of marketing and (iii) planning for sustainable development. IUCN, as both a GEF agency for this project and an expert in conservation, will advise on the identification of opportunities that are compatible with the protection of the FBR. As for the component 2, all economic activities supported in the FBR are expected to take place in the ‘transition zone’ of the reserve, where natural resources can be harvested following precise standards and regulations already defined and enforced. Regional, national and international private sector players will be engaged through the platform, with the objective of coordinating value chain activities through identification of investment opportunities in material sources (livestock, forestry products, food, pharmaceutical and cosmetic ingredients), improvements in existing supply chains (reduction in post-harvest losses, aggregation and bulk storage, new / improved processing facilities, cooling chain improvements), or the investment in improved agricultural practices leading to increased yields.
In addition, a strategy will be developed to catalyze private sector investments in natural resource SMEs (output 3.1.2). This will include the organisation of forums for private sector stakeholder to exchange ideas and discuss common interests and potential opportunities. A publicly accessible database will also be developed to compile, organize and share identified opportunities and benefits from investment in the sustainable use of natural resources in the two project areas. This platform will both be used to lead discussions during forums and be updated based on the results of these encounters. The approach may need to be adapted to online forums, if COVID-19 measures prevent large meetings.
Local entrepreneurs, community organizations and SMEs, in particular women- and youth-led businesses, will also be directly targeted under this component with the set-up of business incubation schemes (i.e. structured support programmes that recruit and support participants) to develop and commercialize products based on the sustainable use of natural resources (output 3.2.1). The incubation schemes will serve as a platform to support local entrepreneurs and SMEs to adopt innovative practices, strengthen their managerial, entrepreneurial, and business management skills, education on saving, support in drafting business plans, and identifying potential national, international and multilateral financing mechanisms to support investments in EbA and on the sustainable use of natural resources. SMEs supported by these activities will be subject to a risk assessment to ensure environmental and social safeguards are met. This is expected to be delivered by teams located in the field, and in the context of COVID-19 team members may have to limit movements between regions (especially between Thies and the FBR), and as part of the PPG phase, options will be reviewed for how to set-up the incubation programme to reduce the risk of delay if key personnel cannot travel or are infected. The development of the nature-based businesses will further have to take into account the impact COVID-19 had on market demand and seek opportunities that are both climate and pandemic resilient.
Finally, the project will equip local SMEs with infrastructure and resilient materials for the adoption of climate-adaptive activities (establishment of nurseries, village multi-purpose gardens, fodder reserves and integrated model farms) as well as relevant agriculture and forestry equipment that support EbA (output 3.2.2).
The adoption of new adaptive practices and alternative climate-resilient livelihoods will be incentivized through financial services (output 3.2.3) such as micro-credit and insurance products, to reduce climate-related financial risks, e.g. crop failure due to extreme weather events. Innovative financing may include for example development of financial products specific to climate-resilient SMEs, provision of both short and long term (micro) finance, flexible payment terms linked to cash flow, risk-based credit scoring and ICT data capture, alternative collateral and guarantee options, group lending, financing via downstream buyers, and risk sharing between Multi-lateral Finance Institutions (MFIs) and national banks. institutions. The GEF-LDCF project led by UNDP PFNAC, intervening in the Ferlo, is in the process of setting up innovative and sustainable finance mechanisms, and is working to improve the capacity of local credit and saving mutuals to finance adaptation projects, both of which have strong potential to directly benefit the SMEs supported under this EbA project. These activities will depend on coordination with the UNDP project as well as the development of partnerships with the National Agricultural Insurance Company of Senegal (CNAAS) and other national, multilateral and international financiers. Furthermore, access to pricing information, marketing and commercial transactions of nature-based products will be facilitated through mobile phones, in a partnership with SONATEL (the leading telecommunications company in Senegal)
Outcome 3.1. Private sector investment in value-chains producing goods and services based on the sustainable use of natural resources in a climate change context.
Output 3.1.1. A private sector platform is set up to better coordinate value-chain activities that promote EbA;
Output 3.1.2. Stakeholder forums are organised to catalyse private and public sector investments towards the creation of resilient natural capital;
Outcome 3.2. Local entrepreneurs and SMEs produce goods and services based on the sustainable use of natural resources
Output 3.2.1. The managerial and entreprenarial capacity of local entrepreneurs, in particular women and youth, are supported to develop and commercialize products based on the sustainable use of natural resources, taking into account climate change
Output 3.2.2. SMEs based on the sustainable use of natural resources are provided with equipment (i.e. for the establishment of nurseries, village multi-purpose gardens, fodder reserves and integrated model farms) and agriculture and forestry inputs.
Output 3.2.3. SMEs based on the sustainable use of natural resources are provided with training to access financing opportunities to promote the adoption of resilient practices that protect and conserve targeted ecosystems
Component 4: Knowledge management, and monitoring and evaluation
This component seeks to secure the long-term adoption of climate-resilient approaches within the two project zones, as well as laying the foundation for scaling up EbA in Senegal. This is achieved through use of the M&E data and lessons learned from the first three components to develop a strategy for scale-up. This knowledge will be particularly relevant to inform planning and budgeting at the local, regional and national levels and for the continuous capacity building of stakeholders to support the scale-up beyond the life of the project. While this component is preparing the exit strategy of the project by capitalizing the knowledge acquired in the three first outputs, the activities will be carried-out all along the project implementation. More specifically, the following outputs will enable the replication and upscaling of EbA practices at the local and national level:
ASRGM, the city of Thies, UNDP, IUCN and technical partners will provide training and assistance to the project team and local and regional actors to develop a Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) plan, including a set of indicators, data collection and processing protocols to categorize, document, report and promote lessons learned at national and international levels (output 4.1.1). The M&E mechanism will put communities at the heart of participatory research processes.
In addition, a communication strategy will be developed to collect, analyze, compile and disseminate the theoretical concepts of EbA (including from outside the project areas and Senegal) as well as practical results of project activities to relevant national, regional and local stakeholders (output 4.1.2.). The strategy is expected to build an institutional memory on the opportunities for EbA to enhance the climate change resilience of biodiversity and the livelihoods of local communities in the two project areas, amongst targeted stakeholders including the local authorities, local elected officials, pastoralists, farmers, local organizations and NGOs and managers of the Wildlife Reserves, Community Natural Reserves (RNCs), Silvipastoral Reserves and Pastoral Units (UPs) and forests of the FBR and Plateau of Thies.
An online platform will be developed as a repository of project results, training, tools and initiatives for experimentation and demonstration of pilot actions, and the results of the project will be disseminated at local, national and sub-regional levels through a number of existing networks and forums. At the end of the project, a national forum, gathering all technical and financial partners as well as the actors involved, will be organized. Building on the results from the forum and discussions , a guidebook/manual will be produced to disseminate the achievements, difficulties, lessons learned and good practices for the implementation of EbA in the project areas, to facilitate the replication of the results (output 4.1.3). If the COVID-19 pandemic is still impacting the project activities at the time of execution, then an alternative approach to a national forum will be developed, which could include several smaller regional meetings restricted in size (in case of travel restrictions between meetings), broadcasting presentations on TV or through meeting software or other approaches that reduce travel between areas and close contact.
A strategy for scaling up EbA approaches and developing natural resource-based SMEs will also be developed, including long-term financing options (output 4.1.4). This strategy will include approaches for developing climate-resilient natural resource-based SMEs, using the M&E results and lessons learned from implementation of the project, and will set out key recommendations for mainstreaming the approach in other regions in Senegal.
Outcome 4.1 Relevant local and national stakeholders incorporate climate-resilient EbA approaches into their land management activities, drawing on the experience from the FBR and Thies.
Output 4.1.1. An M&E plan, including a set of indicators, and data collection and processing protocols, is developed and implemented;
Output 4.1.2. A communication strategy aimed at the relevant local and national stakeholders is developed and implemented
Output 4.1.3. A summary and dissemination document (report, manual or guide) of the project outcomes, lessons learned and good practices is produced and disseminated;
Output 4.1.4. A strategy for scaling up the EbA approached and developing natural resource-based SMEs, including long-term financing options, is developed and the implementation of key recommendations is supported.
Component 1: Developing regional and local governance for climate resilience through EbA
Component 2: Restoration and conservation management to increase resilience of natural assets and ecosystem services
Component 3: Investment in climate-resilient value chains
Component 4: Knowledge management, and monitoring and evaluation
Landscape restoration for increased resilience in urban and peri-urban areas of Bujumbura in Burundi
The project 'Landscape restoration for increased resilience in urban and peri-urban areas of Bujumbura in Burundi' will strengthen integrated watershed management and flood management of the Ntahangwa river connected to Bujumbura to ensure the resilience of both upstream highland communities and downstream lowland communities living in urban areas. The proposed GEF Least Developed Countries Fund-financed project will include a comprehensive planning and management approach making use of climate information available in the country together with specific investments in landscape restoration, flood management measures and resilient livelihoods support. Landscape restoration in areas connected to Bujumbura will help restore flood-related ecosystem protection for both highland upstream communities and lowland urban communities with adaptive solutions ranging from tree planting to watershed protection and reinforcement of riverbank structures. The project is currently in the PIF stage.
At least 120,000 people from the two Bujumbura Provinces, Bujumbura Mairie and Bujumbura Rural, or about 8% of the total estimated population in these two provinces will directly benefit from the project (half of project beneficiaries are women). The project will restore 3,000 ha of degraded areas through tree planting, an additional 1,000 km of anti-erosion ditches and terraces and 1.5 km of flood control infrastructures along the Ntahangwa river in Bujumbura itself. The watershed area is estimated between 12,829 hectares, the project aims to ensure that 10,200 ha, or 80% of the watershed's estimated area, are put under improved management.
To complement the restoration efforts, livelihood activities are needed to reduce the vulnerability of populations by promoting green entrepreneurship and providing better access to markets (initial main sectors targeted are agriculture and agro-industry as well as the charcoal sector) connecting urban communities to peri-urban communities in the watershed. The charcoal sector’s reliance on trees makes it a prime sector to target through a climate-resilient value chain approach. The agro-business sector will benefit from increasing the value of agricultural products and creating new investment opportunities. The urban focus of this project opens new doors to tap into the nascent startup ecosystems of Bujumbura while providing support for youth entrepreneurship and employment opportunities. Resilient livelihood options and green entrepreneurship are important strategies to rebuild Burundi’s economy as part of its post-COVID-19 recovery efforts.
Impacts of climate change
Burundi is a small landlocked country of 11 million people. Agriculture is its primary economic sector, employing nearly 80% of its inhabitants who live from subsistence farming. The country is densely populated with high population growth. Bujumbura is Burundi’s biggest city and until February 2019, the capital city before it moved to Gitega. Bujumbura remains the main economic centre of the country and concentrate services and all of the business opportunities. Burundi’s landscape presents large swath of mountainous areas with elevations ranging from 770 m up to 2,670 m, on the eastern part of the country, the terrain drops to a flat plateau.
Burundi is subject to cyclical geophysical phenomenon like El Niño that are causing extreme climatic situations, strengthening the country’s vulnerability in different sectors, including infrastrutures development, transport, housing schemes and urban planning. This increased exposure to the impacts of climate change, together with the high poverty rate – 67% of the population living under the poverty threshold - puts the economy of Burundi as a whole in a very vulnerable and fragile situation. Burundi ranks as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate disruptions, ranking 171 out of 181 in the ND-GAIN index for climate vulnerability. The country is the 14th most vulnerable country and the 16th least ready country to combat the expected impact of climate change.
Current trends have shown an overall decrease in precipitation creating shorter wet seasons and a prolonged dry season. An increase in mean temperature of 0.7-0.9°C has been observed since 1930. Climate-induced natural hazards have become more frequent in the past decades with an increase in flood and drought as well as storm surges and landslides. Severe droughts frequently affect Burundi and account for a third of all natural hazards occurring in the country and torrential rains have caused major flooding issues around Lake Tanganyika, including Bujumbura. Between 1999 and 2007, the combined losses from severe flood (2006, 2007) and drought (1999, 2000, 2005) episodes were estimated by the government at 5% of the country’s GDP. Severe flooding and landslide have become a common yearly occurrence due to heavier rains than usual during the wet seasons. The country has reported important damages to crops, soil and infrastructure together with the increased presence of pests and disease that affect food crops and livestock.
Between 2013 and August 2020, the International Organization for Migration recorded 131,336 internally displaced people (IDPs), 83% of them as a result of natural disasters. The major part of these displacements occurred in the provinces of Bujumbura Mairie and Bujumbura Rural where 60,207 IDPs are on records. In January 2014, torrential rains caused rivers throughout the city of Bujumbura to come out of their bed. The flooding affected 220,000 people, 40% of Bujumbura’s population. 70 people were reported dead, 4 missing and 182 injured. Physical damage included 2,000 damaged or destroyed houses, the destruction of teaching materials at 7 flooded schools, lost merchandise at 500 stalls in 1 market, several bridges destroyed, 2 main roads cut, and 5000 ha of agricultural land degraded. A month later, in February 2014, floods and landslides in Bujumbura caused 64 deaths, destroyed 940 homes and rendered nearly 12,500 people homeless. Similar events causing deaths and massive destruction have been reported by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA) in 2019-2020. In April 2020, floods in Bujumbura Rural displaced 27,972 people and destroyed or damaged 6,010 houses. UN OCHA reported thousands of hectares of crops ready for harvest destroyed as well as an increased trend in prices for basic food commodities. Further increase are expected as traders try to preserve their stocks in anticipation of poor harvests.
Regional climate models using both a low and high emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively) indicate that the average annual temperature in the country could increase by 1.7-2.1°C by 2060 and 2.2-4.2°C by 2100 (mean change compared to the average for the 1970–1999). The highest increase is projected to occur during the dry season, which could lead to longer heat waves and more severe drought episodes. Climate models indicate an increase in mean annual precipitation of 5.7%-7.7% by 2060 and 8.6-13.2% by 2100 compared to 1970-1999. Furthermore, most of the regional climate models show an increase in precipitation during the main wet season (November-February) and all the models agree on a positive trend for the months of November and December and dryer conditions the months before the onset of the rainy season.
These changes and variability will result in challenges to agricultural productivity, food security and livelihoods, and a likely increase in the occurrence of climate disasters already observed. While evapo-transpiration will increase due to higher temperatures, the surplus of water from the precipitations is likely to increase the risk of extreme rainfalls, flash floods and landslides. A vulnerability analysis of Burundi showed that the area surrounding Bujumbura is particulary sensitive to erosion due to its mountainous landscape and soil profile, a situation that is likely to continue or worsen over time with climate change. On the other hand, the vulnerability analysis shows that drought is and will continue to remain an issue in the eastern and southern part of the country.
Infrastructure investments are concentrated in Bujumbura, making the city particularly prone to damage during flooding due to its geographical situation in lowlands surrounded by mountains prone to erosion and landslides. In order to address these issues, the Government of Burundi, through the National Platform of Prevention and Management of Disaster Risks in partnership with UN Agencies has prepared a “Flood contingency plan”. However, the existence of the Contigency Plan in absence of technical and financial resources has not brought significant changes to populations who suffer greatly from those disasters. In Bujumbura, city residents in the Nyakabiga, Kigobe, Mutanga and Mugoboka quartiers were forced to abandon their houses after they collapsed due to erosion and landslides. Other public infrastructures and private households are on the brink of collapse along the bank of the river Ntahangwa, putting lives directly at risk. The Ntahangwa watershed covers several districts east of Bujumbura and features steep hills prone to landslide and erosion, which then end up affecting densely populated areas of Bujumbura further downstream. Populations in the Ntahangwa watershed (outside Bujumbura itself) rely mostly on subsistence agriculture and agro-forestry on hills for their livelihoods and are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change.
In addition, the country faces aggravating factors, in particular the socio-political crisis that leads to population movements, creating vulnerable groups and a polarization of the population in general. It is also important to highlight the situation of women, who, despite the efforts identified over the last years with regards to political and economic aspects, are still facing inequalities in terms of rights - in particular access to private property. Youth represents a key part of Burundi’s workforce, but opportunities for employment, including those with university degrees, is lacking and fails to fully tap into their potential. The Government has made youth employment a priority and a key pillar of their social protection policy.
Burundi reported its first case of COVID-19 in March 2020. As of the end of 27 October 2020, the country had 558 cases with one official death only. Burundi closed its borders in March 2020, but a comprehensive response to COVID-19 only started in July 2020 when the newly sworn president of Burundi, Évariste Ndayishimiye, declared the virus as “the worst enemy of Burundi” while announcing preventive measures against the disease including mass screening, barrier gestures and economic incentives to reduce food prices. Similar to other African countries, the evolution of the pandemic has not seen the same dramatic progress as has been observed in Asia, Europe or America, but a response is required to maintain essential health services and avoid the spread of the virus beyond the capacity of Burundi’s fragile health system. The majority of confirmed cases were reported in the Bujumbura province.
COVID-19 is expected to impact agricultural production capacities and livelihoods, which could exacerbate food insecurity and limit the resilience capacities of the most vulnerable populations. The crisis has negative effects on food accessibility and price increases have already been observed (e.g. the price of maize is 37-61 percent higher compared to the same time last year). Food prices declined significantly between January and May, falling to their lowest level in seventeen months, but September 2020 marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase in the FAO Food Price Index. Border closure and quarantine requirements have led to a slow-down in trade and a disruption of cross-border markets affecting vulnerable households relying on casual labour and trade with the Democratic Republic of Congo. The COVID-19 crisis is impacting Burundi’s economic recovery. Some of the most affected sectors include services, hospitality and commercial services (transportation, travel, insurance) as well as agriculture, largely due to travel restrictions, a decline in international trade, waning demand for exports, and supply-chain disruptions.
Burundi has limited fiscal, monetary and financial buffers to cope with the current crisis. The GDP of Burundi had slightly risen to 1.8% in 2019 thanks to higher agricultural yields, but is poised to fall to 0.3% for 2020. As a result, public debt is expected to increase to 63.7 percent of the GDP in 2020 from 58.5 percent in 2019 due to reduced revenues and higher spending on health. Assuming the pandemic brought under control, the outlook could be positive in 2021 and 2022 with a significant rebound of growth supported by increased activity in all sectors.
The COVID-19 recovery efforts present opportunities for Burundi to use ecosystem-based adaptation and green economy principles to create jobs, strengthen agricultural value chains and supply chains from urban and rural areas and rebuild Burundi’s economy while addressing climate vulnerabilities and drivers of land degradation.
The LDCF-financed project aims to address the vulnerability of urban and peri-urban communities of Bujumbura and the Ntahangwa watershed to the increased frequency of floods, storm runoffs and landslides projected by climate models. These natural hazards are destroying households and infrastructures of urban communities of Bujumbura along the bank of the Ntahangwa river and threaten the livelihoods and resilience of highland communities living in the upstream part of the watershed. Erosion is a key factor increasing the vulnerability of highland communities to adapt and solutions to increase their resilience have the potential to reduce the impact felt by lowland communities downstream. Floods and storms directly affect the capacity of the watershed’s ecosystem to buffer the impact of climate change, which is made worst by the degradation and deforestation of hills by communities. Despite investments in watershed restoration in the past, there is no planning and management tool at the watershed-level to ensure the long-term resilience of communities. Climate information can support those processes; however, the government lacks the capacity to analyse and make use of data and information for decision-making.
The long-term solution is to strengthen integrated watershed management and flood management of the Ntahangwa river connected to Bujumbura to ensure the resilience of both upstream highland communities and downstream lowland communities living in urban areas. The solution will include a comprehensive planning and management approach making use of climate information available in the country together with specific investments in landscape restoration, flood management measures and resilient livelihoods support. Landscape restoration in areas connected to Bujumbura will help restore flood-related ecosystem protection for both highland upstream communities and lowland urban communities with adaptive solution ranging from tree planting to watershed protection and reinforcement of riverbanks structures. To complement the restoration efforts, livelihood activities are needed to reduce the vulnerability of populations by promoting green entrepreneurship and providing better access to markets (at this stage, the main sectors targeted are agriculture and agro-industry as well as the charcoal sector) connecting urban communities to peri-urban communities in the watershed. The charcoal sector’s reliance on trees makes it a prime sector to target through a climate-resilient value chain approach. The agro-business sector will benefit from increasing the value of agricultural products and creating new investment opportunities. The urban focus of this project opens new doors to tap into the nascent startup ecosystems of Bujumbura while providing support for youth entrepreneurship and employment opportunities. Resilient livelihood options and green entrepreneurship are important strategies to rebuild Burundi’s economy as part of its post-COVID-19 recovery efforts.
Several barriers to this solution have been identified, they will need to be addressed by the LDCF project in order for the project to achieve its results.
Barrier 1: Limited institutional and technical capacity for mapping and analysis of climate risks for resilient integrated watershed management (including flood management). While a climate information system for early warnings has been established in Burundi, operators are receiving training to operationalize the system, but their capacities to make use of data and information beyond early warning (e.g. planning and management) are and will remain limited without dedicated resources. Those capacity gaps need to be addressed before national authorities can analyse trends and develop models to understand flood and erosion risks and support policy and planning processes that can ensure a resilient integrated watershed management of the Ntahangwa river. The development of community development plans (PCDC) has been an important tool to ensure community engagement in shaping programming and investment priorities. However, the absence of an overarching strategic planning process at the watershed level leads to fragmentation and difficulties in developing and measuring the overall impact of interventions across the watershed and broader productive landscape.
Barrier 2: Limited capacities, knowledge and technologies for Ecosystem-based Adaptation. Local authorities do not have the knowledge and expertise to manage climate risks appropriately at their level, even when management measures are identified in a local development plan. Preventive measures are therefore not prioritized and the response to climate-related disasters has remained reactive. This results in significant damage and losses (human, material), which reduces productivity and leads to negative externalities and maladaptation. Communities of the watershed have limited exposure to ecosystem-based adaptation solutions that can improve the resilience of watersheds and restore ecosystem services for flood and erosion protection. They lack the capacity to implement EbA interventions and are not incentivized for doing so. While funding for local development is scarce, human resources are abundant and communities all over the nation willingly give time and effort to benefit their own community. This approach referred to as “labour intensive public work” does not focus on climate resilience, but could be leveraged for the implementation of climate-resilient initiatives with the right incentives.
Barrier 3: Limited livelihood options and entrepreneurship support for climate resilience, in particular for vulnerable and under-represented populations such as women and the youth. Competing needs and interests make it difficult for vulnerable populations to factor in climate risks in their decisions. The lack of resilient alternative livelihood options means they often are forced to continue with maladapted practices despite experiencing increasing negative impacts from climate change every season. Deforestation and unsustainable agricultural practices worsen the slopes’ stability and compound the problems as climate change impacts worsens. Alternative options to reduce those pressures are extremely limited or not realistic due to lack of market access. While highland upstream areas become more prone to landslide and erosion during intense rainfall, they also worsen the situation of communities in the lowland downstream areas who face increasing risks of flood, flash floods and landslides. For the Ntahangwa watershed, demand for food and agricultural products is driven by urban population in Bujumbura while some of their needs are met by rural communities upstream. Despite this obvious link, there is a disconnect between the activities to meet urban demand and their impact on ecosystem services that protect them against flood and there is no win-win mechanisms to use market levers to encourage a shift to resilient livelihood options that meet urban demands while reducing pressure on ecosystem services that also benefit urban populations. In general, lack of market access is a barrier making those livelihood options difficult to implement as tools and mitigating strategies to overcome those barriers are limited/inexistent. Support for small business creation by the government is limited, even more for the implementation of innovative technological solutions deemed risky.
Component 1: Developing technical capacities for climate-induced flood and erosion risks mapping and their use to inform climate-resilient integrated watershed management and other planning processes.
The Ntahangwa river connected to Bujumbura is a strategic asset that provides opportunities for productive sectors (e.g. agriculture, fisheries) but is also prone to climate risks and causes important damage due to erosion and landslides during wet seasons. Investments in parts of the Ntahangwa watershed have been made in the past, but they are insufficient to yield their intended results as they are scattered and not chosen based on an overall understanding of the watershed hydrologic processes and ecosystem services. A comprehensive integrated approach to land and water resources management of the Ntahangwa watershed is required to ensure long-term flood and erosion control and increased resilience of the communities in the watershed, including in areas at high risk of flood in densely populated areas of Bujumbura.
Under this component 1, capacities to analyse climate data and develop climate risk models will be enhanced to support climate-resilient integrated planning at the watershed level and inform communal development plans and flood-resilient urban development plans. The outcome under this component will address the first barrier to the long-term solutions identified in section 1. Interventions will cover the urban, peri-urban and rural settings, as they need to be considered together to understand the needs, priorities and constraints of populations in each of those areas to identify opportunities and synergies at the level of the watershed and attribute relevant role and responsibilities accordingly. For example, urban populations downstream need rural communities upstream to prevent soil erosion and reduce surface runoff causing flash floods. Rural communities need urban and peri-urban communities to access markets to sell their products.
Outcome1: Enhanced capacity for climate risk modelling and integrated planning in the Ntahangwa watershed and Bujumbura town
Under the LDCF project “Community based climate change related disaster risk management”, a community-based climate information system was developed to collect hydrological information and disseminate early warning information. 30 hydrometeorological stations were installed, with information collected centrally by the Geographic Institute of Burundi (IGEBU) and already covering the Ntahangwa watershed. As of 2021, the early-warning system should be operational, fully managed and funded by the government. Capacities and resources to make use of climate information will remains nonetheless limited and prevent use for planning and decision-making. Outcome 1 will build government capacities to expand the use of the climate information to better understand ecosystem health and their capacity to deliver benefits in terms of resilience under the current human, environmental and climate-related pressures. Modeling capacities also need to be enhanced to develop hydrological models to determine climate risks, more specifically flood and erosion risks, in the Ntahangwa watershed based on current climatic trends and future climate change scenarios. Those are pre-requisites for the development of an evidence-based, climate-resilient, integrated watershed management plan for the Ntahangwa river, as they will guide planning and decision-making processes.
Target areas for the World Bank-funded “Landscape Restoration and Resilience Project”, which constitute part of the baseline for land restoration and erosion control activities, were chosen in relation to their location in the Isare commune, but not primarily for their link to the Ntahangwa river. The resilient integrated watershed management plan will provide an understanding of the key areas in the watershed for the provision of ecosystem services for flood and erosion control and propose a watershed rehabilitation plan for those areas. The determination of priority areas will also confirm the critical gaps in the areas of treatment in the Ntahangwa watershed. Integrated watershed planning is an exercise requiring cross-sectoral cooperation and intense stakeholders’ consultation and participation, involving vulnerable and under-represented groups of people, such as women, youth, and indigenous people (n.b. indigenous Batwas are known to be present in the Ntahangwa watershed). The watershed planning exercise will make use of the climate information systems and climate-sensitive risk maps and evaluate adaptation solutions based on their geographical situation in the watershed. This should be complemented by ecosystem valuations to determine the economic value of ecocystem services provided by the watershed areas. Training will be provided to increase the capacity of relevant provincial and communal government officials, decision-makers and planners. The training will help them identify cost-beneficial ecosystem-based adaptation opportunities (rural as well as urban) and flood protection measures that address the climate threats facing the watershed.
The resilient integrated watershed planning exercise will be used to inform the preparation or revision of existing urban development plans in Bujumbura and communal local development plans in rural communes of the watershed. Those plans are the main tools to translate watershed-level planning into concrete field intervention on the ground while supporting long-term sustainability of the project activities and as a result long-term climate resilience.
Outcome 1 will support the other outcomes by creating the necessary basis upon which this LDCF project can conduct ecosystem restoration, flood protection and livelihood development activities to increase the resilience of communities in the watershed (in rural, urban and peri-urban areas). The evidence-based framework for planning and investment decisions will help ensure the sustainability and scalability of the project. Improvements to the climate information system will also help with collection of data and information that make monitoring and evaluation of the project’s impact easier to measure quantitively.
Outputs under Outcome 1 are listed below:
- Output 1.1: The community-based climate information system supported and improved to monitor changes in key ecological determinants of ecosystem health and resilience in the Ntahangwa watershed.
- Output 1.2: Training program implemented to enable the use of hydrological and climate models to map out climate-sensitive flood and erosion risks in the Ntahangwa watershed.
- Output 1.3: A resilient integrated watershed management plan prepared to guide the development and rehabilitation of the Ntahangwa watershed in areas critical for the provision of ecosystem services for flood and erosion control.
- Output 1.4: Flood and erosion risks maps developed for use in climate-resilient planning (urban development and investment in Bujumbura, local development plans in communes of the Ntahangwa watershed).
Component 2: Landscape restoration and flood management measures to protect communities in the Ntahangwa watershed and Bujumbura from flood and erosion risks.
The area surrounding Bujumbura is the most prone to erosion and landslides, a situation which will increase over time according to climate projections. Component 2 will build on the evidence base and the climate-resilient integrated watershed management plan provided in Component 1 to implement ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) interventions and flood protection measures in strategic locations across the Ntahangwa watershed. The EbA interventions will restore or maintain ecosystem services for flood and erosion control while protective measures against flood will help stabilize critical riverbanks in at-risk populated areas of Bujumbura. This component represents the bulk of the investments proposed by this LDCF project and will complement and strengthen other investments made in landscape restoration, afforestation and resilience-building activities in parts of the Ntahangwa watershed (See Section 2 on Associated baseline projects).
Outcome 2: Ecosystems services for flood and erosion protection restored and flood protection measures implemented to improve the resilience of communities in the Ntahangwa watershed and in Bujumbura.
Under this outcome, the project will promote ecosystem-based adaptation techniques in the highland upstream areas of the Ntahangwa watershed. The specific measures include landscape restoration techniques and community-based anti-erosion measures. Landscape restoration techniques will focus on planting trees and creating quickset hedges to stabilize hills in the watershed and will be complemented by anti-erosion contour trenches and terraces. Those techniques are meant to reduce soil erosion, increase soil moisture and reduce surface water runoff, therefore improving ecosystem services provided by the watershed and its streams. During intense rainfall, contour trenches channel water runoff and reduce erosion and crop losses due to flooding. By increasing soil moisture, they also provide added protection against drought and heat waves on crops. These EbA techniques increase land productivity and food security. They bring additional economic benefits to communities as most of the hills in the watershed are used for agricultural production.
The landscape restoration efforts will be implemented directly with the local communities in each of the targeted hills in selected communes of the Ntahangwa watershed. Local authorities and local communities will enforce a ban on tree cutting and maintain anti-erosion trenches as part of their community work (half a day per week is dedicated to community work) under a labor-intensive public works (LIPW) scheme. Those EbA techniques are appropriate for a LIPW approach as they are low-tech and easy to implement and maintain with little capital. The LIPW approach has been applied successfully in Burundi for many years and is one of the approaches used to implement activities of the local development plans (e.g. Plan Communal de Développement Communautaire (PCDC)).
The risk mapping and modelling exercise undertaken under Outcome 1 and the watershed rehabilitation plan will help prioritize the hills and communes of the watershed based on their vulnerability to erosion and landslide and their contribution to the ecological status of the river and streams. This prioritization will also consider current and previous investments in the watershed to avoid overlaps and duplication as well as ensure that other interventions in contribute to addressing the climate threats facing the watershed. In total, the project will plant 3,000 ha of specific trees and herbaceous/shrubby quickset hedges in critical degraded areas as well as establish 1,000 km of contour trenches and radical terraces.
Additional protection from flood will be provided through investment in protective infrastructures in lowland downstream areas, more specifically at-risk populated areas of Bujumbura close to the river. While Bujumbura is less prone to erosion, floods have devastating impacts on the city and the rivers flowing through it, including the Ntahangwa river where critical infrastructures such as schools, churches and habitation are directly at risk of collapsing. Climate change projections indicate that this situation will worsen over time, with increased variability between seasons and increased rainfall causing will increase the frequency of flash flood and landslides. Initial investments in flood protection measures was conducted along the river as part of the previous LDCF intervention. Those measures were considered a success by beneficiaries and the government. The risk mapping exercise under Component 1 will be used to determine the physical location and protective infrastructures options for implementation at a fine-scale level. This work involves civil engineering techniques to reinforce the sides of the river chanel with gabions and terraced surfaces. A social and environmental impact assessment will be undertaken before work on the riverbank can start.
These interventions will be supported by tools and technologies to increase communication and knowledge management at the community level to ensure better responses and handling when climate-related disasters occur. These will aim to create awareness and promote targeted interventions to shift response behaviours to improve climate resilience. South-South cooperation and exchanges of experience and lessons learned on EbA solutions for landscape restoration and urban-based flood protection measures will also be explored during the PPG. These activities will promote the sustainability and scalability of the project, in particular for their application in other rivers and watersheds connected to Bujumbura and Lake Tanganyika.
Outputs under Outcome 2 are listed below:
- Output 2.1: Restoration measures of vulnerable hilltops of the Ntahangwa watershed connected to Bujumbura completed through the methods of tree planting and quickset hedges;
- Output 2.2: Establishment of community-based anti-erosion measures, such as ditches and radical terraces, in vulnerable hills critical for the ecosystem health and resilience of the Ntahangwa watershed;
- Output 2.3: Flood control measures built along the Ntahangwa river channel in areas of Bujumbura where public and private infrastructures are at imminent risk of landslide during extreme climate events;
- Output 2.4: Knowledge and guidance material on (i) landscape restoration, and (ii) flood management and protective infrastructures prepared and disseminated within Burundi and via South-South exchanges.
Component 3: Livelihoods options and green entrepreneurship to increase resilience of the urban, peri-urban and rural communities in the Ntahangwa watershed.
Component 3 aims to support and strengthen the watershed restoration activities under Component 2 by inducing a shift away from unsustainable and vulnerable practices and livelihoods. Livelihoods enhancements and diversification activities proposed under this component will provide incentives to ensure participation and ownership of the project activities by beneficiaries and improve the long-term sustainability of the project results after it ends. The Ntahangwa river is strategic due to its geographic situation connecting highland areas highly sensitive to climate with major strategic assets for Burundi, the city of Bujumbura and Lake Tanganyika. While the connection between the urban, peri-urban and rural communities of the Ntahangwa watershed has been ignored or overlooked, the project will identify and build on the synergies between those communities to deliver win-win adaptation solutions benefiting populations of the watershed, no matter their location or situation. This component also provides specific entry points to support women, young people and indigeneous people with concrete resilience-building solutions or opportunities and tailored support and incentives. Although rural areas have higher poverty rates, the COVID-19 has had immediate and severe impact in urban areas due to the high dependance of the urban poor on informal and non-wage income streams which easily succumb to crises due to low capacity to adapt to sudden changes in market conditions. The livelihood options and green entrepreneurship opportunities proposed under this component build climate resilience while creating green jobs and contributing to building back better as part of the COVID-19 recovery efforts.
Outcome 3: Community livelihood is improved with sustainable adaptation measures contributing to urban, peri-urban and rural resilience.
This outcome introduces adaptation measures promoting resilient livelihoods options and green entrepreneurship opportunities building on synergistic opportunities between populations in urban, peri-urban and rural areas of the watershed and resulting in increased resilience to climate change for populations in the watershed. The options and strategies will be informed by a climate-sensitive market analysis looking at demand levers that could be used to trigger climate-resilient offerings reducing land degradation in the watershed. The market analysis will look at relevant value chains and supply chains to make recommendations on the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of climate-resilient strategies, both on-farm and off-farm. Relevant value chains and supply chains would include agricultural and food products, crops and farming inputs, livestock, fisheries, and non-timber forest products (NTFP). The market analysis will assess economic impacts and market barriers and will include mitigating strategies to address these barriers. The market analysis will be gender-sensitive and aim to provide specific strategies and options for vulnerable and under-represented groups. Food supply systems are key sources of livelihoods and income generating opportunities and can be instrumental in strengthening positive rural-urban linkages. The market analysis will consider COVID-19-related constraints on value chains and supply chains to identify resilience building solutions also contributing to a more robust recovery from COVID-19. The results of the market analysis will be used to inform urban and local development plans supported as part of Outcome 1.
Based on the results of the market analysis, the project will support 5 to 8 Ecosystem-based Adaptation solutions providing resilient livelihoods options that are also compatible with watershed resilience. Those solutions could include, but not limited to, family orchard, food processing and preservation, beekeeping, use of NTFP. Family orchard is a promising EbA solutions that could be used in the Ntahangwa watershed to develop small-scale cultivation systems optimizing the use of space and family labour to produce vegetables, herbs and fruits for both domestic consumption and supplemental income. Family orchard can be implemented in a variety of configurations in both rural and urban settings. Using crop diversification, families can produce food year-round and distribute losses due to climate-induced events. The technique contributes to food security and resilience, it can be complemented by other techniques for increased resilience and autonomy, such as water harvesting techniques, composting and seed management. The project will explore food processing and preservation techniques for agricultural and NTFP products to create added value, reduce post-harvest losses, access new markets and diversify income opportunities, increasing general resilience to climate as a result. While this strategy can be applied to small producers, it could also apply to small agro-business enterprise development.
Under outcome 3, the project aims to foster innovation by supporting green entrepreneurship for urban/peri-urban adaptation. The project will provide investment and support for startup creation, capacity building and skill training, access to improved technologies, mentorship and networking. Green entrepreneurship will aim to tap into the potential of Burundi’s burgeoning startup community to come up with innovative solutions for urban and peri-urban resilience. This activity will provide employment opportunities and connect with young people and women, including those with higher education who often fail to find opportunities matching their career ambitions and expectations. For this activity, UNDP will partner with national, regional and global technological hubs, startup incubators and accelerators to connect startups and entrepreneurs with relevant actors and support. Through green entrepreneurship, the project will contribute to building a more resilient, greener economy in Burundi, which UNDP is promoting as a key recovery strategy post-COVID-19. In times of restricted mobility due to the pandemic, digital solutions are emerging as essential to keep businesses active and ensure safety and security. Where possible, the project will use innovative digital tools to make green businesses easier, more inclusive and more capable of sustaining services during crisis.
UNDP initiated discussions to partner with Impact Hub Bujumbura, a local technology hub supporting Burundi’s startup ecosystem to tackle the Sustainable Development Goals via entrepreneurial and innovative solutions. To generate ideas and interest, the project will support Impact Hub Bujumbura with the organization of the first Climathon in Burundi, Climathon x Bujumbura. Climathon is hackathon programme organized globally under the auspice of Climate-KIC to translate climate action solutions into tangible projects for climate positive businesses and start-ups and addressing local policy changes. Climathon x Bujumbura will gather the startup community to come up with innovative solutions for adaptation and urban resilience. The project, with support from UNDP, will seek to connect startup and entrepreneurs with resources and actors in Burundi, including funding (e.g. UNDP Acceleration Lab, Climate-KIC Accelerator).
Lessons learned from the GEF-LDCF project “Community based climate change related disaster risk management” will be used to guide and inform some of those activities for green entrepreneurship. Such activities include a pilot initiative for briquette production from recycled waste for cooking that is ready for upscaling. Charcoal production is an important driver of deforestation and land degradation in Burundi and the production of briquettes from organic waste contributes to reducing the reliance on wood for charcoal production. The pilot initiative supported by UNDP has created an additional source of income for over 20 young people, men and women, who have learnt the skills needed to prepare the briquettes from waste and build improved cooking stoves. The initiative is generating revenues and has identified areas to improve production bottlenecks for further expansion (e.g. shaping of briquettes with a motorized engine instead of manual work). The market analysis will provide solutions and de-risking incentives to upscale this initiative and will support the establishment of additional briquette production units with, among others, skill training and marketing training, improved production equipments and access to finance.
To facilitate investments and entrepreneurship, the project includes a specific activity on access to micro-finance for smallholder farmers and small-scale entrepreneurs, with a specific focus on women and youth entrepreneurs. This will include capacity building in financial literacy to give beneficiaries a better understanding of credit and business models applicable to their livelihood activities. The project will establish partnerships with banks and micro-finance institutions to develop credit products at affordable interest rates and accessible by vulnerable groups. During the PPG, de-risking measures to incentivize micro-finance institutions and banks will be explored. Strategies to facilitate positive impact on women and other vulnerable groups will form the basis for tailoring policies, practices and products that better address gender equality and promote women’s empowerment. The project will train MFI’s staff member on gender analysis and help them incorporate empowerment indicators (e.g. proportion of women in the loan portfolio) into their client monitoring and assessment processes and help them adjust their financial services to respond to diverse client needs (e.g. adapting loan amounts and repayment schedules for women). The project will build on and strengthen women’s network and conduct marketing campaigns to influence people’s attitudes on women’s status and employment to facilitate community approval of women’s projects and build women’s self-confidence.
As in Outcome 2, Outcome 3 will promote communication and knowledge management, and explore mechanisms to share experience and lessons learned and promote sustainability and scalability of the project’s livelihood options for EbA and green entrepreneurship initiatives.
- Output 3.1: Market analysis conducted, including; i) identifying demand levers that could to drive a shift to sustainable resilient practices in the watershed (considering opportunities from/between urban/peri-urban/rural settings); ii) analysing relevant supply chains for climate-resilient agricultural and food products, crops and farming inputs, livestock and fisheries, and non-timber forest products; iii) assessing economic impacts and market barriers; and iv) drafting mitigating strategies to address these barriers.
- Output 3.2: Ecosystem-based Adaptation solutions providing resilient livelihoods options compatible with watershed resilience are supported (e.g.: family orchard, food processing and preservation, beekeeping, use of NTFP…);
- Output 3.3: Startup creation facilitated through the provision of technical support (training, mentoring) and finance (to invest in resilient practices and technologies);
- Output 3.4: Development of micro-finance products (micro-credit) with Micro-Finance Institutions to support small business development, with a focus on women and youth entrepreneurs.
- Output 3.5: Knowledge and guidance material on (i) resilient livelihood options and (ii) and green entrepreneurship and startup creation leveraging urban, peri-urban and rural win-win opportunities for climate resilience prepared and disseminated within Burundi and via South-South exchanges.
 Analyse intégrée de la Vulnérabilité au Burundi. GIZ, December 2014.
 Microfinance for Ecosystem-based Adaptation: Options, costs and benefits, UNEP, 2013.
Component 1: Developing technical capacities for climate-induced flood and erosion risks mapping and their use to inform climate-resilient integrated watershed management and other planning processes;
Component 2: Implementing landscape restoration and flood management approaches to restore ecosystem services against flood and erosion in the Ntahangwa watershed in and around Bujumbura;
Component 3: Livelihoods options and green entrepreneurship to increase resilience of the urban, peri-urban and rural communities in the Ntahangwa watershed.
Around 71 percent of Afghans live in rural areas, with nearly 90 percent of this population generating the majority of their household income from agriculture-related activities.
In addition to crop and livestock supported livelihoods, many rural households depend on other ecosystem goods and services for their daily needs, for example water, food, timber, firewood and medicinal plants.
The availability of these resources is challenged by unsustainable use and growing demand related to rapid population growth. Climate change is compounding the challenges: more frequent and prolonged droughts, erratic precipitation (including snowfall and rainfall), and inconsistent temperatures are directly affecting the lives and livelihoods of households, with poorer families particularly vulnerable.
Focused on Ghazni, Samangan, Kunar and Paktia provinces, the proposed project will take a multi-faceted approach addressing sustainable land management and restoration while strengthening the capacities of government and communities to respond to climate change.
Climate change scenarios for Afghanistan (Landell Mills, 2016) suggest temperature increases of 1.4-4.0°C by the 2060s (from 1970-1999 averages), and a corresponding decrease in rainfall and more irregular precipitation patterns.
According to Afghanistan’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), the worsening climatic conditions in Afghanistan will continue to impact negatively upon socio-economic development, creating multiple impacts for given sectors. Sectors such as agriculture and water resources are likely to be severely impacted by changes in climate.
Increasing temperatures and warmer winters have begun to accelerate the natural melting cycle of snow and ice that accumulate on mountains – a major source of water in Afghanistan.
Elevated temperatures are causing earlier than normal seasonal melt, resulting in an increased flow of water to river basins before it is needed. The temperature change is also reducing the water holding capacity of frozen reservoirs. Furthermore, higher rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration are not allowing the already scant rainfall to fully compensate the water cycle. This has further exacerbated water scarcity.
Seasonal precipitation patterns are also changing, with drier conditions predicted for most of Afghanistan. Southern provinces will be especially affected (Savage et al. 2009).
Timing of the rainfall is also causing a problem. Rainfall events starting earlier than normal in the winter season are causing faster snowmelt and reduced snowfall.
Together, these factors reduce the amount of accumulated snow and ice lying on the mountains.
Furthermore, shorter bursts of intensified rainfall have increased incidence of flooding with overflowing riverbanks and sheet flow damaging crops and the overall resilience of agricultural sector. On the other end of the spectrum, Afghanistan is also likely to experience worsening droughts. These climate related challenges have and will continue to impact precipitation, water storage and flow.
Floods and other extreme weather events are causing damage to economic assets as well as homes and community buildings.
Droughts are resulting in losses suffered by farmers through reduced crop yields as well as to pastoralists through livestock deaths from insufficient supplies of water, forage on pastures and supplementary fodder.
In its design and implementation, the project addresses the following key barriers to climate change adaptation:
Barrier 1: Existing development plans and actions at community level do not sufficiently take into consideration and address impacts of climate change on current and future livelihood needs. This is caused by a lack of specific capacity at national and subnational level to support communities with specific advice on how to assess climate change risk and vulnerabilities and address these at local level planning. Communities and their representative bodies also lack awareness about ongoing and projected climate change and its impact on their particular livelihoods. Also risks and resource limitations, which are not related to climate change, are not always understood at all levels; and subsequently they cannot be addressed. This is connected with an insufficient understanding within the communities of the risks affecting their current and future livelihoods, including gender- and age-specific risks. As a result, climate change-related risks and issues are not sufficiently addressed by area-specific solutions for adaptation and risk mitigation in community as well as sub-national and national planning.
Barrier 2: Limited knowledge of climate-resilient water infrastructure design and climate-related livelihood support (technical capacity barrier): Entities at national and sub-national levels have insufficient institutional and human resource capacities related to water infrastructure design and climate-related livelihoods support. Given that the main adverse impact of climate change in Afghanistan is increased rainfall variability and overall aridity, the inability to master climate-resilient water harvest techniques and manage infrastructure contributes significantly to Afghanistan’s vulnerability.
Barrier 3: Limited availability and use of information on adaptation options (Information and coordination barrier): At the community level, there are a limited number of adaptation examples to provide demonstrable evidence of the benefits of improving climate resilience. At the same time, there is limited information about alternative livelihood options, rights and entitlements, new agricultural methods, and credit programs that have worked to reduce the vulnerability to climate change.
Barrier 4: Limited capacity in the forest department, lack of forest inventories, geo-spatial data and mapping are preventing adequate management of forest ecosystems. The predicted impact of projected climate change on forests and rangelands as well as the adaptation potential of these ecosystems are insufficiently assessed. This causes a lack of climate smart forest management, an unregulated and unsustainable exploitation of forests by local people and outsiders, leading to forest and rangeland degradation, which is accelerated by climate change and therefore limits their ecosystem services for vulnerable local communities.
Component 1: Capacities of national and sub-national governments and communities are strengthened to address climate change impacts.
Output 1.1 Gender-sensitive climate change risk and vulnerability assessments introduced to identify and integrate gender responsive risk reduction solutions into community and sub-national climate change adaptation planning and budgeting
Output 1.2 All targeted communities are trained to assess climate risks, plan for and implement adaptation measures
Component 2: Restoration of degraded land and climate-resilient livelihood interventions
Output 2.1 Scalable approaches for restoration of lands affected by climate change driven desertification and/ or erosion introduced in pilot areas.
Output 2.2 Small-scale rural water infrastructure and new water technologies introduced at community level.
Output 2.3 Climate resilient and diverse livelihoods established through introduction of technologies, training of local women and men and assistance in understanding of and access to markets and payment instruments.
Component 3: Natural forests sustainably managed and new forest areas established by reforestation
Output 3.1 Provincial forest maps and information management system established and maintained
Output 3.2 Provincial climate-smart forest management plans developed
Output 3.3 Community based forestry established and contributing to climate change resilient forest management
Component 4: Knowledge management and M&E
Output 4.1 A local level participatory M&E System for monitoring of community-based interventions on the ground designed.
Output 4.2. Improved adaptive management through enhanced information and knowledge sharing and effective M&E System
Under Component 4, the project will establish a local-level participatory M&E system for monitoring community-based interventions on the ground, while improving adaptive management through enhanced information and knowledge-sharing.
A national resource center for Sustainable Land Management and Sustainable Forest Management will be established.
A local-level, participatory M&E system for monitoring of Sustainable Land Management and Sustainable Forest Management will be designed.
Participatory M&E of rangeland and forest conditions – including biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration – will be undertaken.
Best-practice guidelines on rangeland and forest restoration and management will be developed and disseminated.
Lessons learned on Sustainable Land Management and Sustainable Forest Management practices in Nuristan, Kunar, Badghis, Uruzgan, Ghazni and Bamyan provinces will be collated and disseminated nationwide.
Annual monitoring and reporting, as well as independent mid-term review of the project and terminal evaluation, will be conducted in line with UNDP and Global Environment Facility requirements.
Component 1: Capacities of national and sub-national governments and communities are strengthened to address climate change impacts.
Component 2: Restoration of degraded land and climate-resilient livelihood interventions
Component 3: Natural forests sustainably managed and new forest areas established by reforestation
Component 4: Knowledge management and M&E