Taxonomy Term List
Integrated climate-resilient transboundary flood risk management in the Drin River basin in the Western Balkans (Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro)
The Drin River Basin (DRB) is a transboundary river basin, which is home to 1.6 million people and extends across, Kosovo*, the Former Yugoslav Republic Macedonia, Montenegro and Greece. Climate change and climate variability have been increasing the frequency, intensity and impact of flooding in the basin. Historical flood data from the Western Balkans suggests a more frequent occurrence of flood events, attributed to an uneven distribution of precipitation and torrential rain, particularly over the last decade. More and larger areas - and more people - are being affected by flooding with a strong impact on national economies. Future climate scenarios project a further increase in the likelihood of floods as well as in their destructive nature. Increased frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, increased water scarcity, intensified erosion and sedimentation, increased intensity of snow melt, sea level rise, and damage to water quality and ecosystems are forecasted. Moreover, climate change impacts on water resources will have cascading effects on human health and many parts of the economy and society, as various sectors directly depend on water such as agriculture, energy and hydropower, navigation, health, tourism – as does the environment.
The objective of the "Integrated climate-resilient transboundary flood risk management in the Drin River basin in the Western Balkans (Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro)" project is to assist the riparian countries in the implementation of an integrated climate-resilient river basin flood risk management approach in order to improve their existing capacity to manage flood risk at regional, national and local levels and to enhance resilience of vulnerable communities in the DRB to climate-induced floods. The countries will benefit from a basin-wide transboundary flood risk management (FRM) framework based on: improved climate risk knowledge and information; improved transboundary cooperation arrangements and policy framework for FRM and; concrete FRM interventions.
* References to Kosovo shall be understood to be in the context of Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999)
Climate change impacts
Climate change is already having an impact and is likely to intensify in the future. According to the national communications to UNFCCC from Albania, Montenegro and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, as well as to the report ‘The state of water in Kosovo’, climate change will have serious negative impacts in the Drin river basin including increased frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, increased water scarcity, intensified erosion and sedimentation, increased intensity of snow melt, sea level rise, and damage to water quality and ecosystems. Moreover, climate change impacts on water resources will have cascading effects on human health and many parts of the economy and society, as various sectors directly depend on water such as agriculture, energy and hydropower, navigation, health, tourism –as does the environment.
The DRB countries are increasingly exposed to the impact of climate change. They are experiencing increased periods of extreme heat in the summer months and increased rainfall during the cooler seasons. According to long-term projections, the average annual temperature will increase by 2° C to 3° C by 2050 and precipitation will decrease in the summer, resulting in longer dry periods followed by more sudden heavy rainfalls. This combination increases the likelihood of floods as well as their destructive nature.
Historical flood data from the Western Balkans suggests a more frequent occurrence of flood events, characterized by more extreme and more rapid increase in water levels, attributed to an uneven distribution of precipitation and torrential rain, particularly over the last decade. More and larger areas and, therefore, a greater population numbers are being affected by flooding with a strong impact on national economies.
In Albania, climate change projections indicate the intensification of heavy precipitation and an increase in the frequency of heavy rains with longer duration, causing flooding and economic damages. There is already evidence of increasing frequency of high intensity rainfall, which is increasing pluvial or flash flooding which inundates the floodplain in a matter of hours. In winter, longer duration rainfall causes flooding which lasts for several weeks during the winter period while long-duration spring rainfall combines with snowmelt to cause flooding. Flood risk is a combination of river flooding and coastal flooding due to sea water inundation (storm surges), both of which are increasing with climate change.
According to available climate change projections for Montenegro, there will be a sharp increase in variability of river flow, characterized by increased frequency and intensity of flooding and hydrological drought. In addition, coastal flooding and storm surges will also significantly increase. During this period the area of low air pressure develops in the coastal region of Montenegro and has a wide impact causing maximum precipitation in the southern areas. In the karst areas, during spring, there are periodic floods due to longer periods of precipitation, melting snow and high groundwater levels. Such floods have impacted the Cetinje plain several times and have caused severe damage to the buildings there.
The First and Second National Communications on Climate Change for FYR Macedonia outlined a number of scenarios related to water resources. The findings included a projection of a 15% reduction in rainfall by 2050, with a drastic decrease in runoff in all river basins. Although the long-term projection is for increased temperatures and a decrease in sums of precipitation, the past period studied shows significant climate variability with increased precipitation. The proportion of winter precipitation received as rain instead of snow is increasing. Such shifts in the form and timing of precipitation and runoff are of concern to flood risk.
The AF-financed project will build resilience of communities and livelihoods in the Drin Basin to climate-induced floods by catalyzing a shift to a holistic basin-wide climate-responsive flood risk management and adaptation approaches based on enhanced climate information, risk knowledge, and community structural and non-structural adaptationmeasures.
The proposed integrated approach to climate resilient flood risk management will encompass: a increased technical, human and financial capacities of relevant institutions within each Riparian country, with responsibility for flood risk monitoring, forecasting and management to enable implementation of climate resilient Integrated Flood Risk Management (IFRM). This would include strengthening of the a. hydrometric monitoring network, risk mapping, flood hazard and risk modelling capacity; b.an enhanced policy and risk financing framework for flood risk management based on enhanced understanding of climate risks; c.climate-proof and cost-effective investment into flood protection through enhanced capacities to design and implement structural and non-structural flood risk management measures, and to provide effective flood risk reduction measures to the population; d. enhanced awareness, response and adaptation capacity of the population; engaging private sector into climate information management and risk reduction investment.
The objective of the project is to assist the riparian countries in the implementation of an integrated climate-resilient river basin flood risk management approach in order to improve their existing capacity to manage flood risk at regional, national and local levels and to enhance resilience of vulnerable communities in the DRB to climate-induced floods. The countries will benefit from a basin-wide transboundary flood risk management (FRM) framework based on: improved climate risk knowledge and information; improved transboundary cooperation arrangements and policy framework for FRM and; concrete FRM interventions. 100.As a result, the Adaptation Fund project will improve the resilience of 1.6 million people living in the DRB (direct and indirect beneficiaries). 101.The project will contribute to the strengthening of the current flood forecasting and early warning system by increasing the density of the hydrometric network, and by digitizing historical data for stations not currently in the existing forecasting model. The project will develop and implement transboundary integrated FRM strategies providing the national authorities with robust and innovative solutions for FRM, DRR and climate adaptation, including ecosystem-based gender sensitive participatory approaches. In addition, the project will develop the underlying capacity of national and regional institutions to ensure sustainability and to scale up the results. It will support stakeholders by providing guidance, sharing climate information, knowledge and best practices. The project will also invest in the priority structural and community-based non-structural measures. Importantly, the project is aligned with and will support the implementation of the EU Floods Directive (EUFD) in DRB countries.102.The AF project will build upon experience of Regional UNDP/GEF Drin project (see baseline initiatives section above) and otherprojects25,26in the region and will include the following innovations:1) introduction of international best practice in flood hazard and risk assessment, modelling and mapping in line with EUFD; 2) innovative mix of structural and non-structural interventions based on climate risk-informed design; 3) agro-forestry measures and community-based flood resilience schemes. The socio-economic benefits include reduced damages and losses and improved food production (through protection of agricultural land). This will have direct and indirect livelihood protection and potential income generation benefits. Climate risk informed planning of the hydropower sector is important to enhance hydropower operations to include transboundary climate-induced flood risk management, thus ensuring the continued sustainable development of the hydropower sector which will help continue the shift to clean energy in the region. Climate risk information will also safeguard critical infrastructure assets such as transportation (roads and bridges) which are critical to the economic development and functioning of communities. Environmental benefits include improved ecosystem functions through better spatial planning and non-structural measures such as agro-forestry, which will provide water retention functions, regulation of hydrological flows (buffer runoff, soil infiltration, groundwater recharge, maintenance of base flows), natural hazard mitigation (e.g. flood prevention, peak flow reduction, soil erosion and landslide control), increased riverbed stabilization resulting in decreased erosion, habitat preservation, and reforestation. This project will directly benefit the most vulnerable parts of the population and will have significant gender co-benefits which will be ensured through close collaboration with a gender expert dedicated to ensuring that gender considerations are a key part of any consultation or activity planning process. Flooding and disasters in general, impact women disproportionately and the project will ensure that these differential impacts are taken account in all project interventions.
Component 1: Hazard and Risk Knowledge Management Tools
Component 2: Transboundary institutional, legislative and policy framework for FRM (Flood Risk Management)
Component 3: Community-based climate change adaptation and FRM interventions
Argentina is considered a high-income economy with a GDP of US$600 billion in 2016 and a population of over 44 million. In the last decades, the country has experienced a marked growth on its agriculture and food sectors, accounting to 54 percent of its land use, and playing a strategic role on the socio-economic development of the country, with 54 percent of employment. Agriculture and animal husbandry and fragile ecosystems are also especially vulnerable to the intensification of extreme climate events, affecting the production and supply of food on national and global scale. The country is considered a top emitter for Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use, contributing to 2.1 percent of the global emissions, and with domestic emissions made up of livestock (21.6 percent); agriculture (5.8 percent) and Land-Use Land-Use Change and Forestry LULUCF (9.8 percent).
In 2016, Argentina submitted its NDC, identifying several agriculture-related priorities. Argentina has prioritized the development of adaptative capacities and promoted the strategic role of the agricultural sectors as a solution to climate change. In 2020, the country signed the new United Nation Strategic Cooperation Framework (2021-2025) and confirmed its interest to push forward the agenda that seeks to enhance ambition and catalyze action for land-use and agriculture. Argentina submitted its revised NDC in December 2020, ratifying a more ambitious commitment to the Paris Agreement and providing a specific and broader role to adaptation, with the national goal of decreasing 19 percent of its total GHG emissions by 2030, compared to the historical peak of 2007, and 25.7 percent compared to the previous NDC. The country has committed to elaborate its Long-Term Climate Strategy by the end of 2021.
Cambodia is considered to be among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Its vulnerability is characterised by frequent floods and irregular rainfall, coupled with limited human and financial resources, limited access to technologies, and an agrarian based economy. The agriculture sector makes up a third of GDP and employs 57 percent of the country’s labour force. Approximately 80 percent of the country’s population lives along the Mekong River and Tonle Sap Lake, where flooding occurs due to increased water levels between early July and early October. Disruptions to logistical corridors caused by floods have a profound impact to agricultural supply chains, both domestically and for international trade. At the same time, 39 percent of the country's total GHG emissions come from the agriculture and land use sectors.
In 2013, Cambodia launched the first Climate Change Strategic Plan (CCCSP) 2013-2023, which captures the main strategic objectives and directions for a climate change resilient and low-carbon development pathway. Cambodia ratified the Paris Agreement in February 2017 and submitted its updated NDC in 2020. The NDC aims to undertake voluntary and conditional actions to achieve the target of increasing forest cover to 60 percent of national land area by 2030. Cambodia also features adaptation prominently in the NDC. Cambodia’s NDC includes its National Adaptation Plan as outlining the climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation actions needed for Cambodia. It also highlights the NAP process as one of four strategic priorities in shaping Cambodia towards a green, low-carbon, climate-resilient, equitable, sustainable and knowledge-based society.
Cambodia initiated its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Financing Framework and Implementation Plan in 2017. Cambodia’s developing agri-business environment also needs assistance for enhancing sustainability, and the Cambodia Partnership for Sustainable Agriculture (CPSA) is paving the path for the sector, for targeted interventions in its value chains such as rice, sugar cane, and cassava. The private sector has benefited minimally from interventions in farm output and input pricing, from the strong commitment to open trade, including across the border, and from the reduction of export costs and time for export processing.
Colombia is the third most populous country in Latin America and preserves a natural wealth, close to 10 percent of the planet’s biodiversity. Climate change impacts are expected to pose significant and long-term effects on fragile and unique ecosystems and accelerate the pace of land degradation, impact water quality and agricultural production. As of 2019, 15.8 percent of the population is employed by the agriculture sectors, being especially threated by climate induced weather events, such as La Niña and El Niño, whose characteristics are strong periods of drought followed by intense rain. At the same time, Colombia is a top emitter for the land use and agriculture sectors, contributing to 2.1 percent of global emissions in the sectors and 58 percent of domestic emissions.
Colombia submitted its first NDC in 2018, which outlined both mitigation and adaptation goals, as well as means of implementation. In December 2020, Colombia resubmitted a revised NDC with more ambitious adaptation priorities to increase capacities on private sector and producers in 10 sub-sectors (rice, meat, milk, banana, cocoa, sugar, corn, sugar cane, coffee, potato). Energy and Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) are considered the most important sector for mitigation.
Colombia was part of the NAP-Ag programme, which facilitated the design of the Integral Management Plan of Climate Change for the agricultural sectors (PIGCCS), and its Action Plan (2019), which represents the national landmark for sectoral climate change planning. It addresses adaptation and mitigation articulately and converges with the broader national and territorial commitments on the stabilization and consolidation of affected areas by the armed conflict and the progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Beforehand, the country adopted its NAP in 2012, "Plan Nacional de Adaptación al Cambio Climático (PNACC)”, and a roadmap for its elaboration in 2013, “Hoja de ruta para la elaboración de los planes de adaptación dentro del PNACC”. In 2020, under the Adaptation Planning support funded by Green Climate Fund, the country elaborated a series of Strategies to strengthen the business sector in climate risk management to maintain competitiveness.
Costa Rica is in Central America and has a varied topography that includes coastal plains separated by rugged mountains, including over 100 volcanic cones and inhabits around 5 percent of the planet’s biodiversity. Costa Rica is among global leaders in responding to climate change, with a long history of environmental protection, sustainable development, and action on climate change mitigation. Costa Rica’s vulnerability to extreme climate events and natural hazards is a result of the presence of populations in areas prone to volcanic eruptions and in unstable lands, degraded by wide-spread cattle ranching, or in poorly planned settlements prone to landslides and flooding. A total of 36 percent of Costa Rica’s land use is attributed to agriculture, and it accounts for 14 percent of the country’s employment.
Costa Rica’s Costa Rica National Climate Change Adaptation Policy (2018-2030), states the priorities with respect to agricultural sustainable production, namely the 1) promotion of adaptation based on ecosystems outside the State's natural heritage, through the conservation of biodiversity in biological corridors, private reserves and farms under forest regime 2) promotion of water security in the face of climate change, through the protection and monitoring of sources and proper management of hydrological basins. The National Development Plan (2019-2022) reaffirmed the ambitious goal to promote a carbon neutral economy by 2021 and laid out strategies to promote renewable energy, reduce GHG emissions, and consider adaptation initiatives.
In 2016, Costa Rica submitted its first NDC. Costa Rica’s National Climate Change Adaptation Policy (2018-2030), as well as the National Decarbonization Plan (2018-2050) and the NAMA coffee, NAMA livestock, NAMA sugarcane and NAMA Musaceae, reflect the continued commitment of the country towards the ambitious goal to promote a carbon-neutral economy, while implementing the adaptation agenda. In December 2020, Costa Rica submitted its revised NDC, including a climate change adaptation component with clear commitments for 2030.
Côte d’Ivoire is located in West Africa along the Gulf of Guinea with the Atlantic running along its southern edge. As a top world exporter of cocoa and cashews and with 70 percent of the working population employed in the agricultural industry, Côte d’Ivoire is vulnerable to variations in weather and climate as well as external shocks in its export trade. Côte d’Ivoire has the second largest economy in West Africa. High rainfall in the south fuels a fertile agricultural industry, which contributes to 27 percent of GDP. A heavy economic reliance on agriculture, in addition to continued environmental degradation and deforestation all contribute to the country’s vulnerability to climate change. In addition, the agriculture and land use sectors hold an 18 percent share of the country's total GHG emissions.
The Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MINEDD) of Côte d‘Ivoire is the key coordinating body for formulating and updating climate and environmental policies for sustainable development. Côte d’Ivoire ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and submitted their first NDC the same year. The NDC intends to reconcile development and reduction of GHG emissions. Due to the country’s vulnerability to climate change impacts, especially in the key agricultural exports sector, adaptation is also a priority.
The revision of the NDC ahead of COP26 in 2021 is ongoing, and the NAP process has been underway in Côte d’Ivoire since 2015. The adaptation planning is crucial in 11 identified priority sectors that are most vulnerable to climate change, including agriculture, forestry, land use and gender as a cross-cutting theme. The second generation National Agricultural Investment Program 2017-2025 aims to increase added value of agricultural products; strengthen agricultural production systems that are respectful of the environment; and promote inclusive growth.
Most of Egypt’s population and infrastructure are concentrated in the Nile Delta and along the Mediterranean coast, which makes the country vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise, particularly inundation and saltwater intrusion. Most agricultural production is concentrated near the banks of the River Nile, and agriculture is the biggest employer with over 31.2 percent of the total population. Agriculture contributed 14 percent to GDP in 2009 and contributes 10 percent of the country's total emissions. Agriculture is the biggest consumer of freshwater resources – over 80 percent. In the agricultural sector, climate change studies expect that the productivity of two major crops in Egypt - wheat and maize – will be reduced by 15 percent and 19 percent, respectively, by 2050.
In 2011, a National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction was released. This strategy lays out the path to overcome the challenges raised by climate change and estimates the investment required to reach its strategic goals. Egypt ratified the Paris Agreement in June 2017 and submitted their NDC, which focuses on the sustainability of agriculture, the environment, water resources, energy, and land management as priority areas.
The NDC outlines Adaptation Action Packages with specific adaptation goals for the most vulnerable sectors, including agriculture. Such adaptation actions include building an effective institutional system to manage climate change associated crises and disasters at the national level. There is strong political will to address the impacts of climate change in all vulnerable sectors (agriculture, health, energy, tourism, water, and coastal zones). The UNDP-supported Green Climate Fund-financed National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Readiness Programme has been established and is in an initial phase of implementation. This NAP programme targets support to build climate resilience in Egypt by improving institutional and technical capacity for climate change adaptation (CCA) planning, examining climate risks, determining CCA priorities, integrating CCA into national and sectoral planning and budgeting, and increasing investment in adaptation actions. There is a large and fast-growing small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) sector and a large domestic market, with potential for improving integration of private sector actors in agriculture in national climate change action.
Ethiopia is a landlocked country in Northeast Africa and has a population of over 104.9 million. The country has long been coping with extreme weather events, such as severe floods, droughts and desert locust invasion. Future climate variability and change are expected to worsen these conditions, potentially accelerating already high levels of land degradation, soil erosion, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, desertification, recurrent floods, as well as water and air pollution. In Ethiopia, agriculture and land-use are high GHG emitting sectors with around 80 percent of domestic emissions. Agriculture plays an important role in the country’s economic strategy and food security, by providing livelihoods and employment to 95 percent of the population.
Ethiopia submitted its first NDC in 2017, in support of the country’s efforts to realize its development goals as laid out in its Growth and Transformation Plan II and its Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Strategy. Ethiopia’s NDC will help operationalize green growth - within the country’s development and economic planning. Transforming crop and livestock production systems and value chains for food security, together with re-establishing forests for ecosystem services, constitute key pillars in Ethiopia’s strategy for climate resilience and inclusive green growth. The NDC mitigation component includes improving crop and livestock production for food security and farmer incomes and protecting and re-establishing forests for their economic and GHG storage capacity. The adaptation component stresses the importance of mainstreaming adaptation into all national processes and engaging with farmers and pastoralists.
Ethiopia submitted a National Adaptation Plan (NAP-ETH) in March 2019. NAP-ETH focuses on the sectors that have been identified as most vulnerable, namely: agriculture, forestry, health, transport, power, industry, water and urban. Within these sectors, 18 adaptation options have been identified for implementation at all administrative levels and across different development sectors, recognizing the considerable diversity in context and vulnerability across Ethiopia’s regions and social groups. Ethiopia is working to integrate climate information into planning and decision-making for development interventions, and prioritizing climate resilience across policies to improve the adaptive capacity at national/federal, regional and Woreda levels. The plan is guided by the principles of participation, coherent interventions, stakeholder empowerment, gender sensitivity, equitable implementation and partnership.
Mongolia is a landlocked country with vast mountainous plateaus sloping from west to east in the country. Mongolia has a very low population density and many of its rural communities are traditionally nomadic pastoralists. The livestock and animal husbandry sector contributes to 80 percent of its agricultural production through a range of food and other products, such as sheep wool, goat cashmere, large animal hair, camel wool and milk. One-third of the country’s labor force is employed in agricultural work, and it accounts for 8.4 percent of the country's exports and 10.6 percent of its GDP. The agriculture sector, however, is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Increased upper heat thresholds are projected to change annual precipitation patterns and increase the number of “dry days,” which will lead to significant volatility in agricultural productivity and livelihoods. In addition, the higher frequency and intensity of major climate-related hazards including storms (dust storms, windstorms, thunderstorms, and snowstorms), droughts, and extended harsh winters are expected to exacerbate conditions.
Key national policy documents include the National Action Plan on Climate Change (2011-2021) and the Green Development Policy (2014-2030). Mongolia’s first NDC was submitted in 2016 and updated in 2020. Its mitigation target is articulated as 22.7 percent reduction in total national GHG emissions by 2030 compared to the projected emissions under a business-as-usual scenario for 2010, focusing on the transport, industry, agriculture and waste sectors, among others. It also includes a distinct adaptation component with goals and targets for priority areas such as animal husbandry and pastureland, arable farming, water resources, forest resources, and biodiversity. The NDC mentions Mongolia’s NAP process, initiated in 2018, as the primary means through which specific adaptation actions will be identified. These include improving pasture management, regulation of livestock numbers and herds’ composition by matching with pastures carrying capacities, improving animal breeds, and regional development of intensified animal farming.
Nepal is a landlocked, mountainous country located in the Himalayas. Small-scale, subsistence agriculture is the mainstay of Nepal’s economy, employing 78 percent of the country’s workforce, and most of the population lives in rural areas. Water and forests are Nepal’s abundant natural resources, with freshwater (derived from glaciers, snowmelt, and rainfall) accounting for 2.27 percent of the total world supply. Nepal was one of the 11 countries part of the NAP-Ag Programme with FAO and UNDP. The NAP-Ag Programme in Nepal worked through the Agriculture and Food Security Working Group under the broader NAP process. This allowed the Programme to support the overall NAP whilst mainstreaming agriculture sector priorities into national processes.
The Ministry of Forests and Environment is the focal point for the development, update and implementation climate related policies in Nepal. Nepal’s Climate Change Policy (2019) aims to contribute to the country’s socio-economic prosperity by building a climate resilient society. Objectives include reducing GHG emissions through the use of clean energy and enhancing adaptation action and the adaptive capacity of local communities for optimum use and management of natural resources.
Nepal submitted an updated NDC in October 2020, which outlines emissions reductions targets for selected sectors such as energy, transport, agriculture, forestry and waste. The NDC’s mitigation strategy foresees to maintain 45 percent of total area of the country under forest cover. For adaptation, it articulates Nepal’s intention to submit an adaptation communication through the development of a NAP. The NAP will include priorities, plans, actions and implementation mechanisms related to adaptation and be aligned with thematic and cross-cutting adaptation priorities identified in the National Climate Change Policy.