United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

Context

Ethiopia has the second largest population of 102 million (2016) in Africa, making it the second most populous nation in the continent, after Nigeria. Ethiopia’s economy has grown rapidly primarily as a result of increased agricultural production. The agricultural sector in Ethiopia – which accounts for more than 80% of total employment and 45% of the country’s GDP is dominated by smallholder farmers, agro-pastoralists and pastoralists, (here referred to as “Land users”) that rely on rainfall and traditional farming practices. Current practices of cultivating crops and overgrazing of livestock contribute towards large-scale land degradation. Deforestation is taking place at a rate of about 140,000 hectares per year in Ethiopia.

At the national level, temperatures have increased by an average of around 1°C since the 1960s. Rainfall is subject to high variability between years, seasons and regions. Yearly variation around mean rainfall level is 25% and can increase to 50% in some regions. Extreme climate events are also common, particularly droughts and floods. Floods and droughts have resulted in severe losses of crops and livestock, leading to food insecurity. The economic impact depends on the extent of the variability and extreme events but droughts alone can reduce total GDP by 1% to 4%.

The rain in the lowland ecosystem of Ethiopia has often started later than expected over the last decade and has been mostly inadequate and unreliable. In many places water scarcity has increased. The unavailability of water imposes higher demands on women’s and girls’ time which would have otherwise been spent on other productive and human development activities. According to the views of land users, in 2018 alone, women and girls walked an average of 6kms a day to collect water. This is significant considering that the twelve woredas being targeted by this project consist of an estimated population of 600,000 people (or 120,000 households) and, according to the records of the concerned woreda administration offices, women represent about 49% of this population.

The land users rely on rain-fed agriculture and their crop production system has been buffeted by acute shocks related to climate. This has made it more difficult for them to grow crops or raise animals in the same way they have been doing. They stated that rain has been erratic, and when it comes it is too much and destroys their crops. They are now questioning the suitability of agriculture as an occupation in view of changing climatic conditions. The lowland ecosystem of Ethiopia is also home to significant livestock population which is characterized by low productivity, poor nutrition, low veterinary care and uncontrolled overgrazing. The grazing land has lower quality of pasture due to intensive grazing. The quality of the grazing land is progressively declining due to shorter rainy seasons, frequent droughts and overgrazing, causing cattle to graze before grasses have produced seeds, creating more shortages in subsequent seasons.

Changes in temperature coupled with frequency of extreme weather events have been damaging crops and reducing yields. Heat stress has entailed disease outbreaks, reduced milk production and resulted in extra expenditure or loss of income. In particular, prolonged dry seasons and droughts have become more frequent and severe. These risks are made worse by an upsurge in pests and diseases, especially the increasing threat of Fall Armyworm. Changes in pest and disease patterns have also threatened crop production and animal husbandry. The ranges and distribution of pests and diseases are likely to increase; causing new problems for crops and animals previously unexposed to these pests and diseases. These challenges are further aggravated by climate change and the absence of resilient alternative sustainable income generating activities.

Land users in the Ethiopian lowland ecosystems view climate change as a threat that has resulted in food insecurity and dependence on food aid. However, they also express having limited awareness of the long-term risks that climate change poses, and do not know how to respond to these risks and / or of the options available to adapt to them. Indeed, due to lack of reliable information as well as limited knowledge of, and access to a wide range of adaptation options they are forced to follow unsustainable livelihood systems as they use short term coping mechanisms. Generating, interpreting, packaging and disseminating credible and timely weather and climate forecasts is a challenge in Ethiopia. Lack of access to timely and credible weather and climate forecasts has left land users with no option except to rely on traditional methods of weather forecasting, which has proved ineffective given the context of a changing climate. Discussion with land users and government stakeholders revealed that the challenge of meeting poverty reduction and food security goals has been mainly associated with incapability to plan better so as to minimize climate related losses and damages.

The land users in the target project areas are resource-poor and their low income means they are unable to make investment and take on risk. In particular, the pastoralists in the Somali and Afar regions have seen their daily livelihood challenges being the constant need to cope with challenges like livestock feed, food, water shortages and migration from internal displacement among others. Moreover, because the main resources in the lowland ecosystem of Ethiopia are controlled by men, women rarely participate in decision-making and their contributions in building resilience and adaptive capacity are seldom recognized. In addition, the decrease in food in times of drought has affected human health especially among children under five years, pregnant women and old people, and reduced human disease resistance and productivity.

The focus group discussion (FGD) held during the PPG phase on impacts of and vulnerability to climate change with lowland farmers, agro-pastoralists and pastoralists revealed that land users are taking actions to cope with climate change and related hazards. However, their current coping strategies such as charcoal and firewood selling are not effective in serving their long-term adaptation needs. These coping strategies are based on short-term considerations, and survival needs, leading to mal-adaptation.

Due to the  limited support tailored to the needs of land users to maintain their livelihoods while adjusting to climate change,  land users across the Ethiopian lowland ecosystems are at risk due to climate-change threats. They face several barriers to effectively managing these risks.

THE BARRIERS IN BUILDING RESILIENCE AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

The following three sets of overarching barriers stand in the way of advancing towards the project objective of building sustainable and climate-resilient economic growth among vulnerable communities, targeting lowland areas in Ethiopia. The full and effective implementation of this project will deliver the following benefits to vulnerable communities in twelve Woredas across the six regions: i) increased understanding of key adaptation issues, including community-based adaptation techniques as a basis for incorporating climate smart technologies and good practices through a practical learning-by-doing approach; ii) enhanced capability to respond to ongoing and emerging threats through the development of climate adaptive action plans by utilizing early warning, downscaled weather information and climate change knowledge products and iii) enhanced capacity of land users to create, improve and sustain diversified livelihood options at the same time as rehabilitating degraded watersheds.

Barrier #1:

Lowland communities lack knowledge on risks of climate change; and the benefits of climate smart solutions and adaptation practices.

The causes and implications of current and future climate change are not well understood within lowland communities. Therefore, the land users in these communities are not ready to adopt climate resilient farming and animal husbandry practices because their knowledge of the risk of climate change as well as how to minimize risks and take advantage of these opportunities are limited. The current coping strategies of land users are not also effective in serving their long-term adaptation needs. On the other hand, there are a number of interventions that can make farming and animal husbandry practices in the lowland ecosystems of Ethiopia climate resilient and more productive. Yet, designing actions based on appropriate and participatory interventions that can steer course away from climate sensitive activities remain a challenge.

Although climate change is recognised as a matter of national importance within Ethiopia’s CRGE strategy, the Agriculture Sector Climate Resilient Strategy and the NAPA, the technical and scientific understanding of climate change and adaptation and its practical application is not well developed within government institutions. Gaps in the technical capacity can be attributed to insufficient training of staff employed in relevant departments within the Ministry of Agriculture, Environment, Forest and Climate Change Commission as well as development agents and extension officers at Woreda-level. As a result, they lack the capacity to offer needed advisories and effective extension support to the land users that would enable them to adopt more resilient and productive practices.  Consequently, the land users have limited awareness of the risks that climate change poses and are not familiar with climate smart solutions to build their resilience and adaptive capacity.

At present, there are few initiatives – either through the GoE or elsewhere – to conduct training activities supporting the implementation of the Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy (CRGE). In particular, there are few training programmes on land management practices for climate change adaptation that are appropriate for Ethiopia’s lowland ecosystems. In addition, there are limited opportunities available for training on how to mainstream activities that are congruent with the CRGE strategy into decision-making and agricultural planning either at the federal or at the regional and woreda levels.

Government stakeholders and land users in the lowland communities require better understanding of community-based adaptation processes as a basis for incorporating climate smart solutions through a practical learning-by-doing approach in order to overcome the barrier.  The proposed project activities under outcome 1: Technical capacity for implementing diversified climate change adaptation practices strengthened will address this barrier.

Barrier #2: Limited access to climate forecasts, decision-making tools and climate advisory services for Lowland communities 

Effective adaptation requires farmers to have access to up-to-date, downscaled climate information, and the appropriate tools and advisory services at their disposal. Ethiopia’s Lowland communities do not have access to these, and are not connected to the climate information, products and advisory services. Technological and capability constraints have hindered the provision of weather and climate forecasts, including guidance and value-added advisory services to land users. In addition, information on how to adopt alternative and innovative farming, pastoral and agro-pastoral practices based on these climate forecasts is not available. This is a result of insufficient availability of climate forecast information, particularly at the local level and inadequate capacity of agricultural extension officers to guide farmers and other land users based on climate forecasts. Consequently, lowland farmers, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists can only undertake limited proactive measures in response to climate change.

At the level of overarching policies, plans and strategies, Ethiopia has made some progress in mainstreaming climate change considerations into national and regional frameworks. This has provided a good basis for the implementation of national adaptation priorities through existing LDCF projects. There is need to find more operational ways of influencing policies and actions on the ground. This requires expanding the capability to gather climate data and to share downscaled weather information and climate change information products with practical applications that combine climate predictions with advisory support services for vulnerable land users. However, the capacity at the national level to generate downscaled climate data and use it at local level is not yet well developed. Often, climate data is provided in complex scientific formats and at high resolutions. The generation of the data is also not informed by the needs of users on the ground.

Moreover, having the tools and undertaking climate information analyses is not in itself enough without the ability to use it to inform decisions at the farm level. Currently, there exists no climate advisory services tailored to the needs of Lowland communities. Practical application requires concerned government stakeholders and land users to have the capacity to use these information and analysis to respond to ongoing and emerging threats in the project area.

Overall, there is no alignment among the components of the climate information products and services value chain, from the collection, analysis and packaging of such information to meet the needs of communities, to the application of this information at local level to support adaptation decisions and actions. Along the chain, there are huge capacity constraints and disconnects in government institutions to provide the information, tools and advisory services synergistically.

The proposed project activities under outcome 2: Climate adaptive management adopted by local communities through accessible climate information and decision-making tools will address this barrier.

Barrier #3: Inability of land users to invest in climate smart technologies and solutions required to diversify and sustain their livelihoods in the face of climate change.

The land users in the project area are resource-poor and unable to invest in the available climate smart technologies, opportunities and solutions for the diversification of their livelihood system. In the project area, there is potential for constructing reservoirs, ponds and boreholes that help address the prevailing water scarcity. Indeed, the land users in the project area have underutilized this potential and few of them rely on flowing streams/rivers and shallow wells with limited capacity to supply domestic water needed during the drought period. There are also opportunities for local communities to diversify their livelihood options thereby building their adaptive base and assets, but are not able to do so due to a number of reasons. They lack technical knowhow to tap into these opportunities, while the advisory services available to them from support institutions is largely lacking in these areas. These services also focus on traditional agro-based livelihoods which themselves are climate-sensitive. Opportunities in activities such as bee keeping, fish farming, processing and marketing of natural products are not fully tapped by lowland land users to diversify their livelihoods and incomes while building adaptive assets.

These opportunities also remain untapped as they are out of reach for the land users who are not able to access funding and technical knowhow. They are therefore not able to construct, own and operate integrated water storage facilities and reservoirs, including accompanying irrigation and solar pump support structures to enable the creation, improvement and sustenance of diversified livelihood options. Some of the investments especially in the construction of water storage facilities and reservoirs, including accompanying irrigation and solar pump support structures require a high up-front capital investment.

This has also become more difficult in the absence of appropriate financial capital especially for poor land users with limited access to the financial services (Ethiopia is one of the most under-banked countries in sub-Saharan level, with a bank branch to population ratio of 1:43912 in 2013/14). Small land users are also perceived as risky borrowers by the formal financial services sector, which is compounded by their lack of collateral, while the costs of finance from the informal financial services sector makes this source unaffordable to them.

The proposed project activities under outcome 3: Climate change adaptation practices adopted in communities in lowland ecosystems will address this barrier.

Although no single initiative can address all the barriers mentioned above, the LDCF-financed project will deliver complimentary outcomes to contribute towards overcoming these barriers. The theory of change (ToC) (Annex K below) underpinning the design of this LDCF-financed project includes the barriers discussed above and activities that contribute to the preferred solution discussed in section III through the delivery of the outcomes 1, 2 and 3.

Strategy

The objective of the LDCF project is to promote climate change adaptation and sustainable economic growth among communities in Ethiopia’s lowland ecosystems; which are selected using predefined criteria set by EFCCC through a bottom-up process. In so doing, the project will target close to 60,000 (52% women and 48% men) beneficiaries in twelve Woredas across six regions.

The proposed project will develop and implement a capacity building support programme to strengthen the ability of land users through i) reaching a wider audience of land users and government stakeholders across the lowland ecosystems of Ethiopia using a TOT approach; ii) disseminating credible weather information and advisory services using a locally suitable communication channels to inform the preparation and implementation of actions designed for building resilience and adaptive capacity at a watershed level, iii) conducting a “learning by doing” training to promote clarity and commitment of land users and iv) providing needs responsive support to diversify livelihood options in a way that leads to tangible and replicable changes.

Accordingly, at the local-level, this project will deliver the following benefits to vulnerable communities in twelve Woredas across the six regions: i) increased understanding of key adaptation issues, including community-based adaptation techniques as a basis for prioritizing and incorporating climate smart technologies and good practices through a practical learning-by-doing approach; ii) enhanced capability to respond to ongoing and emerging threats through the development of climate adaptive action plans by utilizing early warning, downscaled weather information and climate change knowledge products and iii) enhanced capacity to create, improve and sustain diversified livelihood options at the same time as rehabilitating degraded watersheds in the project regions.

This LDCF project will also support the GoE in reaching its development targets such as those specified under the GTP II, the CRGE Strategy and the SDGs. The project will contribute to Ethiopia’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) through inter alia: i) Key Adaptation Need 24 – Promotion of on-farm and homestead forestry and agro-forestry practices in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid parts of Ethiopia; ii) Key Adaptation Need 29 –  Strengthening/enhancing drought and flood early warning systems in Ethiopia; and iii) Key Adaptation Need 32 – Enhancing the use of water for agricultural purposes on small farms in arid and semi-arid parts of Ethiopia.

In addition, the project will contribute to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including: i) SDG 8 – Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all; ii) SDG 12 – Achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture; iii) SDG 13 –Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts; and iv) SDG 15 – Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss.

RELEVANT NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL RELATED INITIATIVES

Ethiopia has undertaken several efforts to strengthen technical, financial and institutional capacities for enabling climate change adaptation. There are already a number of existing national policy initiatives, sectoral policies, programs and strategies that may directly or indirectly address climate change adaptation. The most relevant public documents that have relevance for climate change adaptation include Ethiopia’s National Economic Development Plan (The Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II), Ethiopia’s Programme of Adaptation to Climate Change (EPACC), the Green Economy Strategy (GE), the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Ethiopia, the recently prepared National Adaptation Plan (NAP), the Environmental Policy of Ethiopia, the Agriculture and Rural Development Policy and Strategy, the Water resources Management Policy, the Health Sector Development Policy and Program, the National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness, the National Policy on Biodiversity Conservation and Research, the Science and Technology Policy, the Population Policy and National Agricultural Research Policy and Strategy. In Ethiopia, various international initiatives continue to strive for sustainable development.

In spite of these efforts, there is disparity between objectives and what has been implemented due to the technical capacity limitations of government stakeholders and land users to translate these public documents into on-the-ground action to the fullest.

In view of the recent development with adaptation project implementation in Ethiopia, the project will coordinate with the following relevant projects including; The Green Climate Fund (GCF) financed project-‘’Responding to the increasing risk of drought’’; the Adaptation Fund (AF) financed project- ‘’Building gender responsive resilience of the most vulnerable communities’’ and the USAID Financed FAO Project on Fall Army Worm with the Ministry of Agriculture.