Advancing medium and long-term adaptation planning in Guinea-Bissau

The Government of Guinea-Bissau officially requested support from the UNDP-UN Environment’s NAP Global Support Programme (NAP-GSP) in January 2014. To introduce stakeholders and government representatives to the process, a workshop was conducted, and the country participated in the NAP-GSP Africa Regional Training Workshop (Anglophone) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in April 2014. In September 2015, Guinea-Bissau submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the Paris Agreement and the following year a Stocktaking Report was produced outlining a preliminary roadmap for advancing the NAP process in Guinea-Bissau. 

This project builds upon the gaps and needs that were uncovered during these processes and identified in policy documents and strategies. The overall goal of the project is to create an enabling environment for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into national development objectives. This is being achieved through the following three outcomes that were defined as a result of the NAP-GSP stocktaking of institutional frameworks and climate adaptation initiatives:

• Outcome 1: Coordination mechanisms and processes for adaptation planning at the national and sectoral levels established

• Outcome 2: Capacity for adaptation planning at the national and sectoral levels strengthened; and

• Outcome 3: Evidence base for adaptation planning supported.


The project aims to overcome substantial barriers such as fragmented institutional coordination, a lack of capacity for national-level adaptation planning and implementation, inadequate climate information, and insufficient funding for adaptation investments. It specifically targets these gaps and addresses priorities outlined in Guinea-Bissau's NDC.

The achievement of these priority interventions will complement national, sectoral, and local government priorities, as codified in the country’s national development policies, including Terra Ranka (meaning ‘new beginning’) and its National Poverty Reduction Strategy. 

Context

The Republic of Guinea-Bissau is considered a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) and is located on the West African coast. It also consists of an archipelago – the Bijagós – made up of more than 88 islands. Guinea-Bissau has been plagued by political instability since it became independent in 1974, resulting in a lack of development and high levels of poverty. It is one of the world’s poorest and most fragile countries, ranked 177 out of 191 countries assessed in the Human Development Index (2021/2022), with two out of three people living below the poverty line. Changing climatic conditions, limited adaptative capacity, and the already vulnerable socio-economic context threaten to exacerbate these dynamics. As a result, Guinea-Bissau is recognised as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change.

Guinea-Bissau faces the prospect of more extreme droughts and floods, along with increased volatility in precipitation, as average temperatures rise. The heightened frequency of these extreme climatic events is anticipated to lead to crop loss, damaged infrastructure, and reduced reliability in water supply. Given the country's heavy reliance on subsistence agriculture and cashew exports, building resilience in the agricultural sector is crucial. This resilience is vital not only for safeguarding agricultural livelihoods but also for protecting development initiatives aimed at achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. 

Climate change is already impacting the country through biodiversity loss, desertification, and land degradation. This presents substantial threats to all vital sectors, constrains economic growth, and exacerbates inequalities. Furthermore, sea-level rise exposes the population to greater risks of flooding, saltwater intrusion, shoreline changes, and coastal erosion. These risks may lead to the disappearance of beaches, farming areas, and vegetation. Public and private assets, such as roads and tourism infrastructure, government buildings, schools, medical facilities, homes, and even entire villages are also at risk.

Guinea-Bissau is also engaged in UNDP’s Climate Promise, an offer of support to over 120 countries to enhance their NDCs and meet the challenges of climate change. Guinea-Bissau, having submitted its updated NDC in 2021, has raised its ambition of both mitigation and adaptation goals. This NAP project complements this work.

Baseline Situation 

Guinea-Bissau faces a great number of challenges which infringe on its ability to plan for and adapt to climate change and ultimately achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. This project is designed to enable the government to begin integrating climate risks and adaptation considerations into national and sectoral planning processes. To do so, several barriers are being addressed:

Barrier 1: The country faces challenges in climate change adaptation planning and integrating climate risks due to the absence of a robust national institutional framework. The National Climate Change Committee (NCCC), intended for this purpose, has had difficulties in fulfilling its role effectively. This is attributed to the absence of a well-defined mandate, authority, and a functional working group, hindering the committee's capacity to carry out its responsibilities.

Barrier 2: The government of Guinea-Bissau faces obstacles in terms of technical capacity to integrate climate change risk and adaptation factors into national and sectoral planning. This deficiency is twofold: strategically, it stems from a lack of awareness regarding the physical processes linked to climate change and their repercussions on various sectors, the economy, and communities. Furthermore, there is a limited understanding of the costs and benefits associated with adaptation measures. Operationally, ministries and departments have exhibited low analytical capabilities, posing challenges in tasks such as identifying sectoral vulnerabilities to climate change.

Barrier 3: There has been insufficient climate information to facilitate risk-informed adaptation policy-making and planning. Notably, the absence of vulnerability assessments for climate change risks and impacts, coupled with limited socio-economic data, has limited the ability to comprehend how climate effects disproportionately impact vulnerable groups, including women. These evidence gaps undermine the foundation for informed adaptation policies and planning.

Stakeholder Consultations

Three rounds of stakeholder consultations informed the project design. Guinea-Bissau first explored the NAP process in 2014 when it hosted an introductory workshop. In June 2016, a workshop took place to explain what developing a NAP process entailed, as well as how a GCF Readiness proposal could support it. Following this second workshop, the government requested the support of UNDP to assist them in formulating the Readiness proposal that led to this project.

Two UNDP missions engaged stakeholders from the national government, sub-national governments, academia, NGOs and the private sector. Together, these missions provided key insights into concerns and priorities for the NAP process, particularly concerning climate risks and impacts.

A third and final mission was held in October 2017. During this mission, high-level meetings were held with the Ministry of Environment and Biodiversity to discuss and validate the findings and strategize the next steps.

This project incorporates robust mechanisms for further stakeholder consultations and participation; fostering consensus across all government levels to establish objectives and guide the NAP process. Additionally, the project includes measures to enhance the involvement of women in both adaptation planning and implementation, aligning with the broader goals of promoting gender equity, a focal point in the Second National Poverty Reduction Strategy and reflected in the NDC.

Outcome 1: Coordination mechanisms and processes for adaptation planning at the national and sectoral levels established

Outcome 2: Capacity for adaptation planning at the national and sectoral levels strengthened