Protecting livelihoods and assets at risk from Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and climate change-induced flooding in glacial river basins of Nepal

Project details

Nepal’s mountainous regions are increasingly vulnerable to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), driven by the rapid retreat of glaciers due to climate change.

Since the 1970s, the country has experienced 26 GLOF events, with projections indicating a rise in both frequency and intensity under future climate scenarios. GLOFs trigger severe flooding, landslides and mudflows, threatening lives, infrastructure, agriculture, tourism, and hydropower—vital sectors for Nepal’s economy. Economic losses from a single event can exceed US$100 million, and 47 glacial lakes are currently classified as potentially dangerous. Among them, four—Thulagi, Lower Barun, Lumding Tsho and Hongu 2—have been identified as urgent priorities for intervention.

Despite recognition of the threat, Nepal’s response to GLOFs has remained largely reactive and project-based, constrained by limited technical expertise, financial resources, and institutional coordination. Existing early warning systems do not extend to glacial lake monitoring, and watershed-level adaptation approaches have lacked sustainable funding and strategic investment.

This project aims to shift Nepal from reactive crisis response to proactive risk reduction. It will combine physical risk reduction—such as lake-lowering interventions and eco-engineering flood defenses—with strengthened early warning systems and institutional capacity-building. It also focuses on improving climate risk information, community preparedness, and gender-responsive adaptation planning. Through partnerships with government, civil society, and the private sector, the project will support long-term, scalable solutions to reduce the risk of GLOFs and protect the most vulnerable.

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Green Climate Fund approves $36.1 million to help Nepal protect lives and livelihoods from glacial flood risks

Key results & output

Output 1. Institutional and technical capacity strengthened to develop and integrate climate risk and hazard information into planning and development

Activity 1.1. Strengthen the knowledge base and technical capacities for improved climate research and risk reduction strategies

Activity 1.2. Develop public-private partnerships for sustainable investment in GLOF and flood risk information services

Output 2. Improved hazard monitoring and the generation of early warnings, including the dissemination of early warnings to local communities and important economic sectors leading to reduced economic loss and loss of human lives from GLOF events

Activity 2.1. Improve observation network density in GLOF watersheds to strengthen the technical capacity of DHM for the monitoring of climate hazard and risk

Activity 2.2. Develop and implement early warning systems planning to strengthen adaptive capacity and response to GLOFs and other climate hazards in vulnerable sectors and communities

Output 3. Reduced probability of GLOF events and flash floods, through disaster risk reduction measures implemented in priority glacial lake watersheds

Activity 3.1. Lower the levels of four of the highest risk glacial lakes

Activity 3.2. Construction of structural and non-structural measures (civil and nature-based solutions/ bioengineering) for the risk reduction of GLOF and flash floods

Activity 3.3. Implement eco-disaster risk reduction solutions to reduce the impact of GLOFs and flash floods
 

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Monitoring & evaluation

Project-level monitoring and evaluation will be undertaken in compliance with the UNDP Programme and Operations Policies and Procedures (POPP) and the UNDP Evaluation Policy.

The Project Manager; Monitoring, Evaluation and Training Specialist; and Gender and Social Inclusion Specialist, under the oversight of UNDP as the Accredited Entity, will be responsible for monitoring the progress of all project activities against outcome-based indicators. They will ensure timely reporting of any challenges, facilitate corrective actions, and uphold transparency and accountability.

Annual Performance Reports (APRs) will be submitted to the Green Climate Fund, the Project Board and other stakeholders, using data collected through regular monitoring and gender-disaggregated indicators.

The project will include a performance monitoring framework and specific means of verification to assess progress toward GCF-level impacts and project targets. Milestone evaluations – at baseline, mid-term, and closure – will help validate results. UNDP will manage both the Interim (mid-term) and Final Evaluations, contracting independent consultants to assess the project’s relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact and sustainability. Findings from these evaluations will inform project adjustments and will be shared publicly via the UNDP Evaluation Resource Centre.

UNDP Nepal will retain all M&E records for this project for up to eight years after financial closure to support ex-post evaluations.

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